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Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has disappointed many of her admirers by her refusal to stand up for the rights of the Rohingya Muslims under attack by the Buddhists in the Rakhine state of Myanmar. Her ambivalence on the issue has stunned those who regard her as an icon of democracy: the frail and lonely woman who fought the Burmese military junta and spent 15 years of her life under house arrest.
Yet today she seems to be cosying up to the very same uniformed generals. Her presence at the armed forces day celebrations earlier this year was a clear signal that she has forgiven the junta and is willing now to play ball with the generals. This is the same woman who refused to visit her husband during his last days because the army had made it clear that if she did travel to the UK she would not be allowed in. So what changed in between?
Suu Kyi, who made such tremendous personal sacrifices, has now realized that waging a lonely battle against the generals is not good enough. After years of self denial, a decade of seeing the repression of her people, seeing the untold misery that the crippling sanctions against the junta took as its toll on the people of that isolated and backyard country, Suu Kyi knows that the time has come to be pragmatic. It would help her people much more if she backs the reform process and ensures that her National League for Democracy can win national elections.
On Friday Suu Kyi declared that she wants to throw her hat in the ring for President in 2015. Without the help of the army top brass, which still dominates the Burmese parliament, she will not be in a position to stand for polls. According to Myanmar’s current Constitution, the Nation League for Democracy leader cannot contest the 2015 presidential elections because she was married to a foreigner. The clause was brought in by the generals to stop Suu Kyi from ever becoming the next president of the country. It is certain that if she contests, she will be elected president. Her popularity and her charisma guarantee that. Now many of her actions, including trying to establish good relations with the army, become understandable and is essential if she has to get them to change the constitution.
So in the run up to the elections, Suu Kyi will be making many such adjustments. Her reticence on the Rohingya killings is also aimed at not going against the majority Buddhist electorate in the country. The world now will have to regard her as a politician and not just a shining icon of democracy. She is not operating in a level playing field and if she has to make a serious bid for the presidency she will have to be pragmatic and carry the army.
The generals did not release her in 2010 because they felt she had suffered for too long. They decided to lift her house arrest when the Western sanctions began to pinch. The army knew that the country could not survive unless the sanctions were lifted and so the process of reforms began.
However the reforms are not complete. The Parliament is still largely controlled by the army and its supporters. 25 percent of the seats are reserved for the armed forces, while the party backed by the military has a majority in the House. It was only when the bypolls were held that Suu Kyi and her party managed to win some seats and there was a semblance of democracy in a House used to being the rubber stamp of the junta..
The national elections held in 2010 were criticized by many as a sham. Yet within days after that Suu Kyi, long incarcerated under house arrest, was dramatically set free. The free world has applauded President Thein Sein, a former general for the rapid steps he has taken towards political reform, since he took office.
Suu Kyi’s presence at the armed forces parade a few months ago was a symbolic gesture signalling that she was not against the army, and supported the move for reforms. The army also knows that the lifting of sanctions by the US, UK and the EU is linked with Suu Kyi’s freedom and her personal appeal to Western leaders. So she needs to play along with the generals to continue the reforms and also ensure that the current constitution of Myanmar gets changed. She will need the help of the international community for this and New Delhi’s support too. The armed forces, accustomed to wielding enormous power, have to be reassured that they will continue to be respected and given their due place.
Her wishy-washy stand on the Rohingyas reflects the traditional view of the majority Burmese, who believe that the Rohingya Muslims need to return to Bangladesh. Though they have lived in the Arakans for centuries, they have never been regarded as part of the ethnic minorities, unlike the Kachins, Karens and other groups in Myanmar. Her reticence on the recent vicious attacks by the Buddhists on Muslim Rohingyas is again with an eye not to displease either the military or the majority Buddhist electorate of the country.
Now that she has announced her political ambitions, it will be interesting to see how President Thein Sein and the generals handle this. The next few months will indicate which way the wind is blowing. But with investments flowing into Myanmar and Western business men rushing to the former isolated country, it may be difficult for the generals to turn back the clock.
Seema Guha is a senior journalist and analyst of South Asian affairs.