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The runoff elections to the presidency held on 16 November have finally ended the long prevailing uncertainty in Maldives. The elections that eventually ushered in Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) candidate Abdullah Yameen, the half brother of former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, as the President of Maldives, have ended two years of political tumult in this idyllic island nation. Yameen’s opponent and the candidate of Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), the former president Mohammad Nasheed popularly called ‘Anni’ had led in the first round, both in the elections held on 09 November as well as in the earlier one on 07 September, which were annulled by the judiciary.
He polled around 45 per cent of votes in September and around 47 per cent in November, as against Yameen who failed to cross the 30 per cent mark. However, Nasheed could not take his lead beyond the half way mark and could poll only over 48 per cent of the votes in the run off, whereas Yameen emerged victorious by polling 51.4 per cent of votes. The victory margin at just over 6000 votes was quite narrow.
In a way it was a replication of the 2008 polls, where Nasheed had defeated Gayoom in the runoff after trailing him in the first round. Like then, this time also all the losing candidates ganged up to defeat the front-runner. The time allowed between the first round and the run off, courtesy the judicial intervention allowed the third placed candidate of Jumhoori Party, Gasim Ibrahim to transfer his votes to Yameen. Gasim, who owns luxury resorts and is believed to be the richest man in Maldives, has reportedly been promised one third of the cabinet berths for his party. Gasim had earlier served as the finance minister under President Maumoon Gayoom and had also toyed with the idea of supporting MDP, before hitching his bandwagon with Yameen.
Nasheed after conceding defeat has agreed to cooperate with the government and to function as an ideal opposition to further the national interests. He stated that this was an opportunity "to show citizens how an opposition party that is loyal to the state works." He added "We must adhere to democratic principles. We have repeatedly said, when you fall get up and run. When you lose, be courageous and in victory, be magnanimous." MDP continues to be the largest political party in the Majlis (Parliament) and will continue to play a major role in future reforms. However, the possibility of floor crossing by some of the MDP cannot be ruled out and that could reduce the role of MDP in Maldives. The defeat of MDP, which generally propagated human rights and democracy, by a conservative alliance, has raised certain apprehensions about the future of democracy in Maldives. Yameen and his associates have by and large been supported by the elements, which opposed democracy in 2008.
The economy has suffered from the uncertainty that has prevailed ever since Nasheed was forced to resign under duress in February 2012. Yameen, who has vast administrative experience in the corporates, has promised to revive the failing economy. However, he will find it difficult to rein in the Islamists, who have in the past questioned the functioning of various resorts, especially the serving of liquor and pork products. Maldives economy depends to a large extent on tourism and consequently, a perception of tranquillity and peace is sine qua non to revive the economy. In the run up to the elections PPM and other allied parties campaigned against Nasheed in the name of Islam. During the bitter campaign, Yameen and his associates accused MDP of being too secular and close to the West. They tried to project Nasheed as someone who wanted to undermine Islam by colluding with Christians and Jews. This sort of propaganda ensured that they triumphed over Nasheed especially in far-flung remote islands, which are not exposed to the outside world, although Nasheed led in Male, other urban concentrations and resorts. In fact in his first press conference after the results, Yameen said his electoral victory was God-granted, a victory for Allah and Islam. With such strong pro-Islam symbolism, Islamists are likely to gain in strength and could create problems for governance in Maldives.
From India’s point of view, both the former presidents Maumoon and Nasheed have maintained good relations with India. However, after the removal of President Nasheed, the administration had taken certain steps, which were perceived as anti-Indian. With the new government taking over, the relations between India and Maldives should improve. Yameen’s thinking has been influenced by Maumoon that could ensure good relations with India. However, the media has tried to project as if India wanted Nasheed to get back to power and this could influence the new Maldivian government against India. More significantly, Yameen’s Vice President Dr Mohamed Jameel Ahmed, who was educated in Pakistan is believed to be against India.
Maldives, a tiny country with a huge maritime zone is critical to India’s security. It is therefore imperative for India to ensure that neither state actors nor non state actors, inimical to India gain ground there. Yameen has stated that he would maintain good neighbourly relations with regional countries. It is therefore essential that India engages with Yameen and other elements of former Gayoom regime to ensure that the country remains stable and continues to cooperate with India in the fields of security and economics.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)