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In the hurly burly of the underway Indian elections, India and the Indian media, have perhaps not paid adequate attention to the equally engrossing election in Afghanistan, which besides being of immense strategic significance to India,is of equal import to the survival of democracy in that country.
That perennially violence afflicted Afghanistan has just concluded Presidential and provincial elections notwithstanding a formidable Taliban threat to the elections is indeed not only unprecedented but truly historic - something the world at large requires to adequately applaud.Little wonder then that outgoing Afghan President Hamid Karzai proudly summed up the election process stating, “Today we have proved to the world that this is a people driven country.”
That fundamentalist Taliban and some self-perpetuating warlords in Afghanistan consider democracy as anti-Islamic must not be surprising to well-wishers of Afghanistan and the Islamic world which, unfortunately, is slowly but inexorably getting sucked into medieval mores of governance of ‘fatwas’ and deprivation of basic civil and fundamental rights to its people.The Taliban and warlords like Gulbuddin Hekayatmar and the Haqqani network would prefer political uncertainty and a weak dispensation in Kabul in their bid to re-capture power, with Pakistani support. This possibilitycannot be easily dismissed and in the months ahead, Afghanistan mayyet again become a haven for terrorists of varied hues.
After the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) overthrew the Taliban government in Kabul post the 2001 terror strikes on the Twin Towers in New York, President Hamid Karzai has been in power in Afghanistan, most of the times in trying conditions.Nevertheless, he kept his war torn nation afloat and united, no mean an achievement. That his roller coaster ride relationship with the US, especially in the last three years or so has exacerbated the overall situation in Afghanistan is no secret. Karzai’s refusal to sign the much debated Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US, despite its approval by the Loya Jirga, has further widened the chasm between himand the US.Thus the coming months, notwithstanding the just concluded and successful Afghan elections and its results, which will likely be announced in the latter half of May, are fraught with uncertainty for restive Afghanistan, plagued with fratricidal conflict and many internal contradictions since decades.
Eight candidates are contesting the Presidential elections in Afghanistan. The outcome is being eagerly watched by not only Kabul’s neighbours but importantly by US and the West. With a trillion dollars in war costs to it in Afghanistan, the US naturally has a stake in Kabul’s future dispensation. Results declared so far indicate that the electoral battle is between Abdullah Abdullah (of Tajik-Pashtun descent and brother of the legendary assassinated former Northern Alliance chief Ahmed Shah Masood), and former finance minister and technocrat Ashraf Ghani. According to former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ronald Neuman, either of these would be a “plausible option.” President Karzai’s elder brother, one of the presidential candidates earlier, withdrew from the contest a few weeks back. Karzai’s consistent favourite has been Zalmai Rassoul, who is now likely to be out of the race. To become the Afghan President, one among the candidates, in the first round itself, will have to poll 50 percent of the total votes polled in the elections (7million votes were cast out of a total electorate of 12 million voters in Afghanistan). Braving Taliban threats, large queues including ‘burqa’ clad women were seen at most polling booths all across Afghanistan and this augur well for Afghan democracy. Unquestionably, the brave Afghans require encouragement and support of the international community in the years ahead to consolidate their nascent democracy. There were, off course, a few violent incidents during these elections especially the shooting of two foreign women journalists was indeed a painful incident with one veteran journalist, AP photographer Anja Niedringhaus succumbing to her wounds.
India and all well-wishers of Afghanistan will hope for a clear mandate for whoever is the winner in these elections and who would then endeavour to usher in an era of peace and prosperity for his hapless land. But the coming weeks are also pregnant with nightmarish scenarios in case political instability creeps onto the Afghan countryside or if Afghanistan gets Talibanised. In case of the latter eventuality, will the international community or the UN consider extending the tenure of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan? The newly elected Afghan government could also request via the BSA for additional troops to remain deployed in their nation till they feel that their own security forces are ready to take on the Taliban.
It is a simple geo-political reality of today that apart from the US and the West, many nations in this region includingPakistan, Iran, Russia, China and India too have their own interests in Afghanistan, which are often at conflict with each other. It is also a universally accepted fact that Pakistan’s enduring machinations has been a predominant factor inthe perpetuation of instability forAfghanistan.The outcome of the Afghan elections and India’s own general elections, now, is simultaneous! Thus, one of the first few challenges, which the newly elected Indian government is likely to face, will be the Afghanistan conundrum and the way forward for India. Hopefully, India will be more proactive in Afghanistan than hitherto fore. India could once again re-visit its Afghan assistance initiatives, provide some lethal military equipment to the Afghanistan National Security Forces, and intensify its training programmes for the Afghan military and police besides consolidating the connectivity corridor between Iran’s Chabahar port and the Afghan hinterland onwards to the Central Asian Republics. Importantly, India must play a major role in the minerals exploration and setting up of technical and other educational institutions in Afghanistan.
The next Indian government may wish to take a meaningful diplomatic initiative in getting major players like the US, Iran, Russia, China, EU and UN institutions on board for regionalassistancecooperation programmes for Afghanistan.Pakistan too must be invited as an important bordering neighbour provided it discard its current not so altruistic intentions for Afghanistan! The coming months thus portend a significant interplay on the regional strategic chessboard.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)