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The positive atmosphere building up around the Iranian Nuclear Deal with P5+1 and the Framework for Cooperation with the IAEA remains as yet, but the momentum of the negotiations have reduced significantly as the parties are now engaged in addressing major issues of contention.
The recently concluded fourth Vienna meeting, between Iran and P5+1, has revealed that Iran and the international community will have to cross these major hurdles for the successful conclusion of a comprehensive nuclear deal.
One of the hurdles is the number of centrifuges which Iran will be allowed to continue operating. While Iran wants to retain all of its 20,000 centrifuges operational, the P5+1 are looking at restricting the numbers to 4,000.
The second issue which the parties are yet to converge is that of the heavy water production plant at the Arak site. While Iran has proposed a new design for the reactor which would decrease the amount of plutonium produced significantly, the resultant reactor's capacity to generate electricity, as a consequence, would drop from 40 megawatt to 10 megawatt. Despite this significant drop in electricity production capacity, Iran's decision to continue ahead with the redesigning of the reactor must therefore be welcomed. Another critical factor which should not be ignored is the Iranian commitment not to construct a separation facility made in the Framework for Cooperation signed with the IAEA in November 2013. Without the separation facility, Iran will not be in a position to separate the weapons-grade plutonium from the spent fuel.
From the Iranian perspective, the US and its western allies are demanding much against very little relief from sanctions. Although the US has offered to unblock tens of billions of frozen Iranian assets, Iran is looking for a complete removal of the UN and other western sanctions, along with access to global banking system and financial markets.
Another pending issue is that of the initial period of time for which the comprehensive deal would remain in force. On the one hand, the P5+1 are looking to cover a period of 10-15 years, while Iran is looking at only a few years for the comprehensive deal to remain in force.
Now that Iran and P5+1 has begun negotiation on these major issues of contention, the process is bound to get painfully slow. As a consequence, the meeting saw no significant progress in the process of drafting the comprehensive deal. Although the aim of the meeting was not to arrive at an agreeable draft of the comprehensive deal, however, with the self-imposed deadline of July 20 for its conclusion looming near, the meeting was expected to, at least, initiate the process of drafting the language.
Meanwhile, those opposed to this nuclear deal with Iran jumped in to seize the opportunity by declaring the meeting a failure. Certain sources highlighted the absence of a press conference at the conclusion of the fourth round of Vienna meetings as a sign of faltering talks.1 Others have underlined the refusal of the IAEA to comment on whether Iran has fulfilled its commitments under the Framework for Cooperation by the May 15 deadline as signalling the Iranian intention of running a nuclear weapons programme.
It is important, however, to realise the great opportunity these negotiations offer towards the realisation of a stable West Asia. The exaggeration of difficulties pertaining to the Arak reactor, for instance, is uncalled for. While the issues over the number of centrifuges and on the withdrawal of economic sanctions remain, the only way to overcome such hurdles is through the means of greater diplomatic engagement. On the other hand, while the UN nuclear watchdog is yet to come out with updates on the progress that Iran had to make by May 15, under the IAEA Framework for Cooperation, it should be recognised that Iran is making efforts to invite the IAEA, unlike what the situation was a decade ago. The IAEA reports have so far noted full compliance to the commitments that Iran has made since last November.
Considering the long history of tensions in relations between Iran and the West since the 1979 Revolution, mitigation of these pending gaps, which are, to an extent, a by-product of the great trust deficit, is bound to take more than just six months. In that light, it is again important to highlight that the negotiators did anticipate that any process of drafting a legal document, that comprehensively addresses all of the issues pertaining to the Iranian nuclear programme, could be difficult and thus, while the interim deal was signed between Iran and P5+1 in November last year, the parties agreed to include the provision for an extension of the deal by additional six months, should they fail to conclude the comprehensive deal by the self-imposed deadline of July 20, 2014.
In any case, even if it is due to the impacts of economic sanctions, Iran has been making greater compromises going into the negotiations. Despite making these compromises and facing difficulties in the negotiations, Iran maintains a positive approach to the deal and calls for the world not to miss out on this opportunity. This accompanies the remarkable positive shift in Iran's approach towards its neighbours, including Israel, ever since Rouhani has taken over the presidency.
Yet, pessimists continue to say that there is not enough time to conclude the deal and accuse Iran of buying more time, in the guise of these talks, to continue its progress towards the development of nuclear weapons. But, there seems to be an absence of any alternate solution being offered by them, other than a military confrontation with Iran. It is, now, upto nations from the region and from around the globe to use their wisdom and better judgement, to assess whether it is the diplomatic negotiations or a military confrontation which they see as the way towards the realization of peace and stability in West Asia.
By Special Arrangement with : Observer Research Foundation (www.orfonline.org)