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In Mr Modi’s views, “a strong economy is the driver of an effective foreign policy. We have to put our own house in order that the world gets attracted to us.” With a mandate for economic reform Modi’s foreign policy will be driven by the economic imperatives of the nation and would essentially be a ‘Foreign Economic Policy’ powered by economic diplomacy.
Relegated to be a Foreign Policy novice by many, Modi’s innovative and unprecedented move to invite all SAARC members, including Pakistan, to his swearing in ceremony has been applauded even by his critics. The ubiquitous invite to South Asian nations sent a strong message of inclusiveness to the neighbourhood and placed a diplomatic quid pro quo for Nawaz Sharif even before officially taking on the coveted job. Most analysts had predicted diplomacy beyond economic diplomacy to be a backburner issue under Modi. To everyone’s surprise, Modi’s swearing in ceremony itself has had a heavy foreign policy agenda and has set the ball rolling for a more proactive foreign policy that envisages regional security and economic cooperation.
Although he hasn’t formally pronounced the new government’s foreign policy concerns and priorities, Modi has been quite vocal about his views on foreign affairs outlook since being anointed as the prime ministerial candidate by his party. His speeches usually pay tribute to former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee whose political will he much admires. "Our pillars of foreign policy should be issues of strategy and security. Atal ji showed the way in both Shakti and Shanti," noted Modi in a recent speech. He accolades Vajpayee for conducting the nuclear tests in 1998 after the world had imposed sanctions on India and stands by Vajpayee’s “No First Use” nuclear policy, dismissing recent rumours of a revision to the policy.
Modi has called for a more assertive India: he has criticised the UPA for its inaction on the border clashes in Kashmir, signalled China that Delhi would defend its territory robustly and was disproving of the UPA government's efforts to stop illegal migration from Bangladesh. The perils of upping the ante with coercive diplomacy, as suggested by his campaign rhetoric, include the possibility of escalation beyond one’s ability to handle. Mr. Modi’s firmness must be backed with adroit action that safeguards against escalation.
Pakistan
Modi appealed to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when he was sworn in last June to “abandon its anti-India politics and become a friendly country” and is likely to convey the same message during the talk post the inauguration ceremony. Time and again he has asserted that talks between India and Pakistan must be contingent on Islamabad taking substantive steps in stopping gunfire and bombs directed at India. Given the lack of control Sharif’s civilian government has on the inimical elements in his country, the prospects of delivering such a promise remain grim. Despite the tough talk, Modi acknowledges the need to “keep good relations” and is well placed to bring about a rapprochement. Already his invitation to Nawaz Sharif points to his positive disposition towards improving relations with Pakistan. Negligible trade between India and Pakistan coupled with Modi and Sharif’s business acumen gives some scope for improving relations.
China
Modi’s outlook on China during his campaign also extracts from Vajpayee’s Shakti and Shanti formula. While a big proponent on doing business, Modi has not shied away from being critical of the Chinese. In his first interaction with Chinese leadership back in 2011 Modi interrupted Chinese interlocutors calling for greater partnership between India and China with a simple query: But how can we do this if you continue to support Pakistan in the way that you do? Earlier this year at a conference in Arunachal Pradesh he again stressed the need for China to “give up its expansionist attitude and adopt a developmental mindset."
Better relations with China would bring better economic as well as security benefits, a reality both countries wish to capitalise on. Given Modi’s trade record with China as CM a new paradigm driven by economic engagement could be established. The Chinese foreign office has already expressed its desire on working with the new government on enhancing Strategic Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity.
Japan
Much has been written about the likelihood of Japan’s Shinzo Abe becoming Modi’s closest ally. Modi shared a working relationship with Abe as Chief Minister and visited Japan twice during his CM tenure. Modi is amongst the three people Shinzo Abe follows on twitter. He even thanked Abe for the congratulatory message via the medium: "My gratitude to Prime Minister @AbeShinzo for extending his good wishes. Strong relations with Japan are beneficial for both our nations. Personally, I have a wonderful experience of working with Japan as CM. I am sure we will take India-Japan ties to newer heights."
Delhi and Tokyo have much in common: both democracies are wary of Chinese expansionism. Japan is already involved in massive infrastructure projects in India. This includes the 90 billion Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC). Modi’s personal ties with Japan can only be expected to pitch more cooperation between the two nations.
While Pakistan, China and Japan are likely to top Modi’s foreign policy prerogative, India under Modi will seek to foray beyond its traditional approach to forge stronger economic alliances that bring about regional security and prosperity. Modi has often quoted the Sanskrit phrase Vasudheva Kutumbakam (the world is a family) as his guiding principle for dealing with the world. India, he stated can “become the alchemist of the world.” Platitude apart, Modi is determined to co-ordinate diplomacy with trade and investment and is brimming with out of box ideas to actualise the same. For instance, at a memorial lecture on 'India and the World' at Madras University, he suggested that each one of India’s 30 states should develop a relationship with a country abroad. “If 30 countries in the world bat for us, we need to be afraid of no one.” Armed with unconventional out of the box thinking and a majority mandate Modi is well set to reboot India’s foreign economic relations.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)