Exploring Hungary's Position in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Exploring Hungary's Position in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Hungary has held a unique position in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The ongoing conflict has drawn the attention of nation-states around the globe. The responses to the conflict are varied and are based on an array of factors ranging from national interest and historical ties to domestic interests. Hungary is a member of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and has adopted an approach that is different from other countries in the nation. This article aims to explore the factors influencing Hungary's approach to the conflict in Ukraine, focusing not just on domestic politics and economic interests but notably on the historical context.

Methodology:

The following paper utilises a qualitative approach to analyse the rise in Hungary's approach to the conflict in Ukraine by analysing various aspects such as political, economical and historical aspects. It utilises newspaper reports mainly because of the lack of research on the topic. It also refers to Official Hungarian government statements and EU positions. This methodology enables the author to explore the historical and contemporary factors. By synthesising findings from both historical, political and economic perspectives, this approach aims to provide a holistic picture of the Hungarian foreign policy

Ethnic and National Identity:

Hungary and Ukraine are both former Soviet Satellites. In the post-communist era they initially shared great relations. Hungary gave $264min aid to support local Hungarians, and Transcarpathia as a whole. (The Economist, 2023) Ukraine's Transcarpathia has been an issue which has proved to be a stumbling block in the ties of Hungary and Ukraine. After the conflict began in 2022, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) secretary accused Hungary of knowing Russia's intention. He also claimed that Hungary wished to use this situation to its advantage by taking back Ukrainian territory. The Hungarian diplomat in turn replied that the claims were "untrue and unfounded, as well as incite hatred against the Hungarian people and Hungary in Ukrainian public opinion, which is suffering from the war". (Ustymenko, 2022).

Ethnic Hungarians have resided in Ukraine's Transcarpathian region, known as Karpatalja in Hungarian, since the migration of Hungarian tribes to the Carpathian Basin around the 9th and 10th centuries, an event referred to in Hungarian historiography as "honfoglalas" or "conquest of the homeland." This term reflects the perception of this region as an integral part of Hungary's historical lands and underscores the view among Hungarians of themselves as indigenous to this area. Today, approximately 157,000 ethnic Hungarians live in Ukraine, with the vast majority- about 152,000-concentrated in the Zakarpatska Oblast. However, this population constitutes only around 12 percent of the region's total demographic, based on data from the 2001 Ukrainian census. (Ustymenko, 2022)

Historic Rivalries:

The Treaty of Trianon, signed on June 4, 1920, drastically reduced Hungary's size and population by about two-thirds, as punishment for its role in World War I. The treaty redrew Hungary's borders, stripping it of territories that contained significant numbers of ethnic Hungarians, who were assigned to neighbouring countries. Although the treaty was meant to promote self- determination and establish nation-states in place of old empires, it caused widespread resentment in Hungary. Many Hungarians viewed the treaty as a profound injustice and an insult to national pride. (The Treaty of Trianon, n.d.)

The treaty's legacy remains potent; it is still seen by many Hungarians as a painful historical wound. Commemorating Trianon, monuments have been erected in Hungary, including a recent one near parliament by Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government, which often emphasises national pride and historical grievances. While Orban's supporters view this as a call for Hungary's respect on the world stage, his critics argue that he is reopening old wounds. (Thorpe, 2020) Orban has expressed strong sentiments about the Treaty of Trianon, claiming that the West imposed "indefensible borders" on Hungary, stripping it of natural resources and leaving the country in a weakened state. He declared that Hungary will "never forget" the impact of the treaty, which redrew borders following World War I. Although Orban has sought to build ties with Slovakia and Serbia, both of which gained territory from Trianon, relations with Ukraine and Romania remain strained, partly due to the presence of Hungarian minorities in those countries. (Hopkins, 2020)

Domestic Context:

Hungary has been under the rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orban since 2010. In the 2022 Hungarian elections, Orban's party Fidesz won 53% of the vote. While enjoying popular support at home, Orban faces heavy pressure from the EU. A vociferous critic of immigration and an EU sceptic (Spike, 2022). The Orban government is known for its conservative and nationalist ideology which puts an emphasis on sovereignty.

Hungary's relationship with Ukraine is affected by both internal and external factors. The government policy to support Hungarian minorities in neighbouring countries. Ukraine is home to around 100,000 ethnic Hungarians, dozens of whom have lost their lives fighting for Ukraine. In 2017, the Orban government went against Kyiv for introducing a Ukrainian education law which makes it difficult to study Hungarian in Ukrainian schools.(Thorpe, 2023) Ukraine's western provinces Transcarpathia have been a bone of contention between the two countries. (Ustymenko, 2022)

Regional Context:

Hungary's response is also influenced by the larger EU response. Orban has opposed EU sanctions on Russian oil and has often stood in the way of EU or NATO aid for Ukraine. He has called a prospective EU membership for Ukraine a disaster, he sees Ukraine as a buffer zone between EU and Russia. This view is not different from the one held by Vladimir Putin. A senior Hungarian diplomat also called the conflict an "inter-Slav civil war" which shows the Fidesz party's leaning or tendency of viewing the conflict in ethnic terms which is much different from its counterparts. (Thorpe, 2023).

Prior to an EU Summit in December 2023, the agenda of which included an invitation to Ukraine to start formal EU negotiation and more aid from the EU. However, even before the summit started Orban claimed that the mistreatment of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine disqualified the country from joining the EU any time soon. (Thorpe, 2023)

Public Perception:

In Orban's EU policy rhetoric, a significant shift was made from the approach of previous Hungarian governments. Labelling earlier policies as "euroservile" and "conformist," Orban criticised them for what he viewed as subservience, citing Fidesz's commitment to protecting Hungarian national interests as justification for distancing Hungary from the EU. This involved positioning conflicts with Brussels as necessary, adopting an "economic and constitutional freedom fight" stance against both the IMF and EU to emphasise Hungary's sovereignty and opposition to becoming a "colony." (Agoston, 2023)

Additionally, the political rhetoric surrounding national identity serves to rally public support around the government's position. Orban's administration has cultivated a strong nationalist identity that frames Hungary not only as a historical nation but as a contemporary power facing external threats. This rhetoric is often in favour of preserving relations with Russia while asserting Hungary's role in the negotiation at the European level.

Energy Dependence:

Hungary's dependence on Russia goes back to when it was a Soviet satellite. In 1970, Soviet gaswas introduced in Hungary. In 1975, Testvériség I (Brotherhood I) pipeline was inaugurated. Since then, Hungary has depended greatly on Russia for its energy security. (Brader, 2024). Most of Europe has aimed to decouple from Russia its energy dependence. Cheap energy has been an important part of Orban's political campaigning, and in light of Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Hungary emerges as a buyer for Russian crude oil. Orban rejects restrictions on oil and gas imports from Russia stating that it hurts the Hungarian economy.

Even in the renewable sector, Russia has been awarded a 12-billion-euro project to expand its Paks Nuclear facility. (Gosling, 2020) Hungary while remaining reliant on Russian energy has stated that it aims to eliminate Hungarian reliance on Russian oil by 2050. This in line with Hungary's target to be net zero by 2050, it aims to do so by concentrating on alternatives such as nuclear and renewable energy. However, Russia provides most of Hungary's natural gas (75 percent), oil (60- 80 percent), and nuclear fuel (100 percent) (Hungary - Energy, 2024).

Trade Relations:

The conflict in Ukraine has caused challenges in Hungary's economic growth. Although direct trade with both Russia and Ukraine is only about 3% of total exports, the war has affected global and regional supply chains, resulting in supply-side bottlenecks particularly in the automotive industry. Hungary's reliance on Russian energy is substantial, as the country imports about 80- 85% of its natural gas and 80% of its oil and petroleum from Russia. Additionally, Hungary's nuclear energy needs are met completely by Russian imports. This dependence on Russian energy sources poses significant risks, particularly in light of the geopolitical tensions and the EU imposed sanctions on Russian energy due to the conflict in Ukraine. The Hungarian government successfully negotiated an exemption from European Union sanctions to continue importing Russian oil via pipeline. The war has also had indirect economic effects on Hungary's labour market. The influx of Ukrainian refugees-approximately 2.7 million crossed Hungary since the beginning of the conflict-has the potential to alleviate and improve the domestic labour shortages in certain sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and healthcare. While the majority of refugees have transited to other countries, those who remain may help decrease some pressures within the Hungarian labour market, which faces significant challenges in various industries. (Hungary - Market Overview, 2024)

Conclusion

Hungary's approach to the conflict in Ukraine is not one-dimensional. It is shaped by a range of factors ranging from political, economic to historical. The government's conservative nationalist ideology while maintaining its national sovereignty influences its foreign policy stance. Economic dependence on Russian energy, alongside significant trade ties with Ukraine and Russia, further complicates Hungary's foreign policy.

Additionally, historical ties, particularly concerning the presence of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, influence Hungary's diplomatic strategies. While critics argue that Hungary uses Ukrainian aid as a bargaining tool (Dunai, 2023) it is important to note the role ethnic tensions between the two states also play a role in Hungary's position. While some scholars suggests that Hungary views its relationship with Ukraine second to its relationship with Russia, it is important to not ignore the importance of the role of history and ethnicity and the importance of identity in International Relations. Hungary's Euroscepticism adds another layer to its approach to the conflict.

Ultimately, the situation remains in a flux, influenced by ongoing developments in Ukraine with both Russia and Ukraine claiming to gain ground. Hungary's position remains subject to both the domestic political climate in Hungary as well as the global political landscape. As Europe continues to grapple with the consequences of the conflict, Hungary's approach will likely evolve, particularly in light of Donald Trump being elected as the President of the United States. Hungary needs to not only look at its national and economic interest while also holding on to its heritage which is extremely proud of. Hungary's response as argued in the essay is not merely a strategy for greater economic gains. Hungary's position has highlighted its importance in EU. Hungarian response to the conflict shows how it is going to not subscribe to a single camp but be more assertive as it navigates all its relationships.

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