Explained: Syrian Crisis and its implications for Iran and regional geopolitics

Explained: Syrian Crisis and its implications for Iran and regional geopolitics

The end of five decades of rule over Syria by the house of al-Assad represents a decisive turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Perhaps the biggest impact will be on Iran, but no actor in the region will be untouched.

Dr. Alvite Ningthoujam
Asst. Professor, SSIS, Pune

Image Credits : https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/syrian-crisis-implications-iran-middle-east-9722800/

The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria is expected to have wide ramifications across the region, presenting in particular, a strategic challenge to Iran's regional influence and undermining the long-standing effort by Tehran to maintain a "Shiite crescent" across the Middle East.

Assad was forced to flee to Russia as Damascus fell on December 8 at the end of a two-week lightning offensive by opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an armed group designated as a terrorist outfit by the United Nations, the United States, and Turkey.

The Iran-Syria partnership, and challenges for Tehran

Since the formation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Damascus has been Tehran's principal strategic partner, with Syria serving as an essential corridor for Iranian influence to work throughout the Levant. The partnership facilitated Iranian access to Lebanon, and allowed Tehran to provide financial and military support to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia that the Iranian regime used to further its interests in the region.

The relationship, which began during the three-decade rule of Hafez al-Assad (1971-2000), gained strength during the presidency of Hafez's son Bashar al-Assad. The strategic alignment between the Ba'athist governments of the Assads and Iran was opposed by the predominantly Sunni Arab states in the region. Syria is part of the Arab world, but the al-Assad family is Alawite, a sect of Twelver Shiism.

Iran's regional influence exerted through the "Axis of Resistance", its strategic network of non-state militant actors, has experienced significant diminution since Israel began its military operations in the Gaza Strip in response to the October 7, 2023 attacks. The "strategic depth" frequently emphasized by top Iranian officials including the Supreme Leader, has experienced considerable contraction.

Hamas, the perpetrator of the attacks on Israel and one of Tehran's affiliated organisations, has been significantly downgraded as a military entity. In Lebanon along Israel's northern frontier, Hezbollah, another component of the "axis", has suffered a comparable setback, evidenced by the elimination of its supreme commander, Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September 2024, alongside several key military personnel. And in the southern Arabian Peninsula, the Houthi militias in Yemen, who receive support from Tehran, are facing mounting pressure not only from Israeli forces, but also from the military operations of the United States Central Command. However, various armed factions supported by Tehran continue to have substantial influence in Iraq, a country that has increasingly aligned itself with Iranian interests in recent years.

The politico-security transformation in Syria both illustrates and exacerbates the diminution of the sphere of Iranian influence. Tehran had previously commenced a measured reduction of its military footprint within Syria, predicated on its strategic assessment that a degree of stability was returning to the country, where a bloody civil war broke out in early 2011. However, the elimination by the US, in January 2020, of General Qassem Soleimani, a pivotal figure in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, created an operational void that was sought to be filled by the deployment of Hezbollah commanders operating as Tehran's proxies. But this tactical reconfiguration encountered significant impediments during the military engagements initiated by Israel, which resulted in the neutralization of a large number of senior Hezbollah leaders and strategists. These successive operational setbacks substantially compromised Iran's capacity to maintain its strategic position within Syria - and the fall of the Assad regime has presented Tehran with a range of difficult challenges. To hardliners within the regime, the strategic importance of a nuclear deterrence has grown significantly. However, with the Middle East in imminent danger of exploding flames of war, such an escalation by Iran would carry very significant risks.

Geopolitical implications for the countries in the region

The collapse of the Assad regime and diminution of Iran's influence in Syria carry profound implications for the region's geopolitical landscape, power dynamics, and strategic alignments.

• * Regional powers including Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states will compete to fill the power vacuum in Syria, and to recalibrate their efforts to safeguard their core interests.
• * Key Gulf actors, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may seek to strengthen their diplomatic leverage through calculated engagement with the diverse Syrian political factions and reconstruction efforts, attempting to balance against Turkish and Iranian regional aspirations.
• * Israel is expected to take more assertive positions against Iran-affiliated organizations in the region, including Lebanese resistance groups active in Syria, with the aim to prevent Tehran from reconstituting its sphere of influence in Israel's north.
• * The instability in Syria could also exacerbate sectarian tensions as Sunni Arab states seek to prevent Iran from regaining influence, while various militant groups, including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could try to rebuild their operational presence in the region.
• * Turkey's military footprint in northern Syria is likely to continue, primarily motivated by concerns over Kurdish autonomy movements and their broader regional implications.
• * Iraq, which faces complex domestic and regional dynamics, may explore a strategic reassessment of its ties with Iran, even as it navigates the spillover effects of the volatility in Syria.
• * The Western alliance, led by the US and European nations, can be expected to intensify their strategic involvement, at a later stage, if not imminently, through coordinated diplomatic channels and measured interventions. Such engagement will serve the West's dual objectives of preventing the reemergence of non-state militant organizations, while limiting Russian and Iranian strategic expansion in the Mediterranean region.

The upshot: watershed moment, no obvious way forward

The developments in Syria represent a decisive turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The dramatic reduction of Tehran's influence in Damascus signals a major reconfiguration of regional partnerships and an intensification of strategic competition. While regional powers might perceive opportunities to expand their influence, the risk of heightened volatility remains significant. The success of multilateral diplomatic initiatives in reconciling divergent national interests will be crucial in determining whether the region progresses toward stability or faces further deterioration of its security architecture. Given the extraordinarily complex and fluid situation, forecasting outcomes remains precarious.

(The article was previously published by The Indian Express)