A Brief Analysis of the Bangladesh Crisis 2024 and Implications for India

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The last few days have witnessed a rapid development of events in Bangladesh that involved violent protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It led to her tendering of resignation, followed by her hasty fleeing from the country and imposition of Army rule. As per the latest reports from PTI, Bangladesh Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been appointed as the head of Bangladesh's interim government.

Since early 2024, Bangladesh has been experiencing severe riots marked by violent clashes, political instability, and social unrest following the elections. The riots quickly escalated across major cities, including Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet. Protests turned violent as clashes between demonstrators and security forces became frequent. The government's response, characterized by a heavy-handed approach including curfews and crackdowns, only intensified the situation. The violence saw widespread property damage, looting, and a significant number of casualties. The proverbial last twig that broke the camel's back was the death of over 300 students and demonstrators. These occurrences have broad implications not only for Bangladesh but also for neighboring India, considering the countries' intertwined economic, political, and cultural relationships.

A complex mix of political, social, and economic factors primarily ignited the riots in Bangladesh. Key among these was the heightened political tension following the controversial national elections in late 2023. The ruling party, the Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, faced allegations of electoral fraud and corruption. Opposition parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), accused the government of manipulating the electoral process and suppressing dissent. The political unrest was compounded by severe economic issues. The impact of climate change, such as flooding and cyclones, added to the burden of the economic problems. Despite its impressive economic growth in previous years, Bangladesh struggled with high inflation rates, unemployment, a reduction in Foreign direct investment (FDI) and a growing disparity between the rich and poor. The issue of Quotas and Reservations in government jobs further exacerbated the grievances, leading to widespread discontent among the populace. Social grievances also played a crucial role. Issues such as religious tensions, particularly between the majority Muslims and minority Hindus, and the marginalization of indigenous communities contributed to the unrest. The rise of Jamaat-e-Islami has also been a cause of concern, as it is perceived as a major threat to the minorities in Bangladesh. The possible role of foreign powers' involvement in fuelling the crisis also cannot be ruled out completely. Thus, a combination of these multiple factors created a volatile environment that eventually erupted into a political crisis.

Domestic volatility aside, the unrest in Bangladesh poses a significant threat to regional stability. As a neighboring country and a major middle-power State, India has a direct interest in ensuring that Bangladesh remains stable. The political chaos has enhanced the opportunity for Pakistan and China to expand their influence in Bangladesh. Continued instability can lead to increased cross-border movement of refugees and potential spillover of violence into Indian territories, especially in the eastern and north-eastern states in the border, such as West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur and Mizoram. Any disruptions in the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link, the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line, or the bus route arrangements could pose potential risks to India's Northeast region. In the latest development, the Manipur government has brought in curfews in some border areas to counter potential illegal immigration from Bangladesh in the wake of the riots.

Historically, such situations have led to socio-political challenges within India, including strained relations between local communities and authorities. The emerging reports of attacks on Hindu places of worship and targets are worrisome as these can aggravate existing ethnic and communal tensions in these regions. It raises security concerns for India, particularly regarding terrorism and extremism, as it cannot ignore the potential for militant groups to exploit the chaotic situation to advance their agendas. India will need to enhance its border security measures and collaborate with Bangladeshi authorities to address these potential threats. Ensuring that security operations are conducted in a manner that respects human rights is crucial to avoid aggravating the situation. To this end, high-level meetings have been convened by India's Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi. An all-party meeting was held to assess the Bangladesh issue, and the Indian External Affairs Minister Shri Jaishankar, has assured that India is closely monitoring the diaspora situation in Bangladesh.

From an economic lens, the impact of the Bangladesh riots on India's economy is unlikely to be an immediate major concern as India has a well-diversified export portfolio. During Sheikh Hasina's prime ministership, there was a substantial boost in the trade relations between India and Bangladesh. The disruption of economic activities will affect these existing trade flows and can lead to economic losses for Indian businesses involved in cross-border trade. Indian companies with investments in Bangladesh or those dependent on Bangladeshi supply chains will face operational disruptions. There are reports emerging of goods transporting trucks waiting on both sides of the border and trade associations have estimated a loss of around Rs 110-120 crore of trade per day. Continued instability may also deter future investments in Bangladesh, especially the potential free trade agreement talks, impacting India's economic interests in the region.

Diplomatically, the riots present a strategic dilemma for India's relationship with Bangladesh, which has evolved as a critical strategic partner both bilaterally and regionally under the Awami League as a crucial ally. India has historically maintained a supportive stance towards Bangladesh, providing aid and assistance during crises and supporting its development efforts. However, the current situation puts India in a delicate position. India's response to the unfolding crisis must be carefully balanced to avoid aggravating tensions or appearing to interfere in Bangladesh's internal affairs. It is obvious that both domestic and international observers will closely watch India's actions influencing its diplomatic relations with Bangladesh and its image as a regional power.

To conclude, the Bangladesh riots of 2024 have profound implications for India, spanning regional stability, economic interests, diplomatic relations, and security concerns. As Bangladesh navigates through this period of unrest, India's response will be critical in shaping the future trajectory of its relationship with its neighbor. Strategic engagement, humanitarian support, and diplomatic tact will be essential for India to manage the situation effectively and maintain regional stability.