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US-China Trade War sends US industrial output to a 10 year low
Sooraj Kashyap
US manufacturing industries plunged to a ten-year low in output this December. The reports suggest that trade war is not only taking a toll on the growth rates of Europe and China but also the US manufacturing sector. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) conducted a survey that showed concerning results on every rubric, even though the labor market is going strong and stable.
According to Chris Rupkey Chief Economist at MUFG, New York, “The economy is just going to be spinning its wheels with subpar growth in 2019 if the purchasing managers report is to be believed. New orders have dried up and this will take a toll on business investment and growth in 2019,”
The ISM said that its index of national factory activity slipped by 5.2 points to 54.1 last month, the lowest since November 2016. The drop was largest since October 2008, which has sparked a lot of discomfort to a lot of experts. The ISM’s report shows that the factory employment measure index dropped to 56.2 from 58.1 since last month.
The machinery makers are blaming the ongoing tensions between the USA and China causing uncertainty over long term manufacturing deals. Tariffs on aluminium and steel imports and other Chinese goods are hurting the manufacturing industry. The transportation industry is also witnessing a growth slowdown.
In addition to the tariffs, the increase in the input costs of manufacturing due to the increasing strength of the dollar and the growth and demand slowdown of the Chinese economy is also affecting the manufacturing.
The ISM survey resulted in a fall of 600 points of the Dow Jones, a decrease in US bonds yield and the value of the dollar dropped in comparison to other basket currencies.
Taiwan’s Election
Soham Joshi
Tsai Ing-Wen is Taiwan’s first President, her anti-China sentiment is not ideological but also related to work ethics when she was assigned by a former President to conduct legal research on why Taiwan is not part of China and was asked to formulate a two ‘State theory’. Ing-Wen is often called Asia’s Angela Merkel because of her decisiveness.
Ing-Wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gears up to fight an election against her pro-China rival Han-Kuo-yu of the Kuomintang Party (KMT). The Taiwan election takes place on 11th January and the result will decide its relationship with China. The people of Taiwan jump from anti-China DPP to Pro-China KMT in almost every election. However, this election seems to be extremely interesting.
There is a big possibility of the DPP returning to power and if this happens it will be seen as a referendum against China. China wants Taiwan to adopt Hong Kong’s one country two system model. However, recent protests in Hong Kong have raised a question on the fragility of such a model. China believes that Taiwan is a part of the mainland because of historic reasons and it aggressively trying to integrate itself with the small country. This has resulted in a political and technological battle between the two countries. Many Taiwanese tech companies refuse to deal with Chinese companies as they will lose business with the West.
China often shows military strength against Taiwan, a Taiwanese citizen will often see newspapers reports about Chinese military jets flying over the country. China is on the path to reduce Taiwan’s military allies. Such situations have led to Taiwan looking towards the US for assistance where Taiwan is ready to buy around 80 F-16s from the US.
Differences between both these countries have created political cracks in the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan’s parliament). If the KMT manages to win, it can easily block legislation that China deems dangerous. If DPP wins the election Tsai Ing-Wen will try to align herself with the West and other countries that China is not fond of, to maintain balance in the region. Taiwan’s relations with China are controlled by its people.
Venezuela gets new leader Guaido amidst standoff
Bhavya Bana
Last week saw the self-proclaimed interim President, Juan Guaido enter the Congress amid a tense standoff with the security forces to secure his place as the leader of the National Congress. In the wake of the blockade, the current President, Nicolas Maduro, supported the election of Luis Parra as the congressional chief, winning with the supporting votes of 81 legislators. Guaido and his allies have denounced this election and conducted a separate legislative session at a Venezuelan newspaper on 5 January, claiming his election as the leader with the support of a 100 votes, along with the support that Guaido enjoys from dozens of countries including the US and the UK.
Guaido has been leading the opposition to the presidency of Maduro, amidst the turmoil that has gripped the country affecting its economic and social conditions, which also led to several million citizens fleeing their homeland. The Trump government’s foreign policy concerning Venezuela, geared towards removing Maduro, who is also backed by Cuba and Russia, has been ineffectual in reality, since Maduro enjoys the support of the country’s armed forces and been successful in violently suppressing any opposition movements.
Last week on 7 January, Guaido and his supporters were successful in pushing through the national guardsmen to enter the Congress, where he took his oath to topple Maduro’s government which the opposition considers to be illegitimate, and reiterated his position as the interim president.
Regaining his position in the Assembly could present the opposition with new vigour in securing a regime change, especially in light of Guaido’s waning public and political support and the violent backlash from Maduro.
Mexico amid spiraling drug violence
G Akshay
In Mexico, according to the statistics released by the Mexican government earlier this week, more than 61,000 people have gone missing since 2006. The statistics revealed that the number of people missing is 50 percent more than the previous estimation of the government. This is said to be due to the increasing drug war with the most notorious drug cartels which tends to be violent.
The new figure which was released by the National Registry of Missing Persons (RNPED) under the one-year-old administration of the new president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, states that the new figure is 61,637 which surpasses the old figure that was estimated to be 40,000 from June.
The Mexican government has tasked the National Search Commission to search for the missing citizens of the country. In the first 13 months of work, the commission reported that they have uncovered almost 873 clandestine burial pits and found almost 1,124 dead bodies from those pits. These pits are used by the drug cartels or Kidnapping Gangs to dispose of the bodies.
In 2006 then president of Mexico Felipe Calderon took a war against the drug cartels with his army. This move damaged the most notorious drug cartels which led to a notorious reaction by them. The revised numbers were issued as the new president was facing criticism against his policy of using “hugs, not bullets” against the drug cartels, and since then the murder rates in Mexico have increased very steeply.
Secretary-General of National Public Safety released stats showing that the homicide rate in the country has reached its highest, and is increasing the overall yearly total since 1997when the government started tracking the murder rate. The data released in November showed that nearly 29,414 homicides happened in 2019, nearly about the death of 100 people per day. The data also suggests that if the murder continues to happen to at this pace the homicide is expected to surpass this figure in the present year.
Chandrayaan-3: India’s Upcoming Moon Mission
Tanishk Saxena
On Wed, January 1, 2020, India revealed its upcoming moon mission named Chandrayaan-3 to be launched from Thoothu Kudi in Tamil Nadu, just a few months after the loss of communication with the rover of Chandrayaan-2 whose objective was to collect minerals and chemical samples. After which Indian Prime Minister had stated that "We will look back at the journey and effort with great satisfaction." And "The learnings from today will make us stronger and better. There will be a new dawn and a brighter tomorrow very soon". Soft landing at the moon will be a major technical challenge thus there will be new upgraded equipment such as propulsion module, moon lander, and rover which will cost around $35 million and launcher costing $51 million but will have no orbiter. This will take India a step forward in its plan to put Indian Astronauts in Space by 2022 through Gaganyaan Mission for which four astronauts had been selected for extensive training which will cost around $1.4 Billion.
In 2017, India launched a record of 104 satellites and in 2014, India became the first Asian to reach Mars. Notably, all of this was a relatively low budget in which Mangal Mission cost just $74 million. Apart from importance in research and development, these missions also Inspire and aspires people around the world along with showcasing its technological compatibility with tech giants.