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Iran’s Partial Withdrawal from the JCPOA and the rising concerns over the future of the Nuclear Deal: “Peace, Security and Stability?”
Mrityunjaya Dubey
Image Courtesy: CNN news
On 8th May Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani announced to withdraw Iran from the crux of the historic nuclear deal signed in 2015, primarily focused to reduce the risk of nukes in the region and the maintaining international peace and security. The decision to partially withdraw Iran from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action comes at a time when there seems no ease between the US and Iran’s rising bitterness. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action acronym as JCPOA is the crux of the nuclear deal signed between Iran and the United Nations Security Council’s P5 plus Germany in 2015. The JCPOA tried to limit Iran's nuclear arsenals be it civilian or military apparatus. The JCPOA in the broader context tried to prevent Iran from acquiring and stockpiling nuclear weapons under rigid terms and conditions.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, made Iran abide by the three principles as enumerated:
i) The agreements helped in reducing the number of Iran’s centrifuges by two-thirds,
ii) It helps in slashing the stockpiles of enriched uranium by 98 per cent,
iii) While the JCPOA made it possible to cap uranium enrichment at 3.67 per cent.
Now, when Iran announced her partial withdrawal from the deal, many frowns and eyebrows have been raised from the European Union and the US flanks. As with President Trump's completely unilateral withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal in August 2018 worried Iran as well as Europeans regarding the future if the deal and maintaining regional peace and stability for the greater good of all. As an outcome, Iran's partial withdrawal from the JCPOA still leaves some hope to settle the rays of distresses that the world is witnessing and that has raised grave concerns for the European Union when the parliamentary elections are around the corner.
To this end, hilarious statements are given from President Trump's side alleging Iran that her step of partial withdrawal from the agreement aims to get the world to jump into the matter. Mr Trump also accused Iran of encouraging secret stockpiling and consistent manufacture of nuclear weaponry behind the curtains. However, the loosening of the threads, where the US and Iran stepped back from the promises has tougher implications for the Trans-Atlantic ties. Now, the European Union has to walk the tight rope and decide which side to take i.e. the US on the one hand and Iran on the other. Already the fear of any unease and bitterness in the Trans-Atlantic ties has shown many European states stopping the trade with Iran, so as to avert any sanctions from the US’s end. The unpredictable and mal-administrative behaviour of Mr Trump is un-famously known for worries and tensions.
Thus, it can be concluded that it is now the wait and watch the situation, where the Trans-Atlantic ties and the US and Israel's relations will help shape the future of the JCPOA and avert the mankind from moving back to barbarism. The future will decide upon the regional stability and the long term international peace and security.
Gulf of Oman Incident
Soham Joshi
Image courtesy: CNN
On 12th May, four commercial ships were targets of a sabotage attack under mysterious circumstances near the Fujairah port of UAE which happens to lie near the Strait of Hormuz. This comes after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran would evade some parts of the JCPOA and has asked for a solution from Britain, Russia, China, France, Germany and the EU (the remaining signatories of JCPOA) to come up with an economic plan. If they are unavailable to do so, Iran will enrich its Uranium to a higher levels, thus making it easier to make a nuclear bomb.
Similarly, on 14th May Saudi Arabia’s two oil pumping stations came under a drone attack. This attack was claimed by Houthi rebels fighting the Saudi led coalition in Yemen, Houthi rebelled are believed to be sponsored by Iran. This has led to Saudi and the US pointing fingers at Iran.The strike was carried over by more than 400 km of the Yemenis border, the Houthis had acquired long range drone technology last year.
Iran’s statement of moving away from the JCPOA has led to US reacting in a belligerent manner and deployed the nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham near the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand Iran threatens to block the Strait as a response, if this were to happen then 18.5 million barrels of crude and refined product would get severely affected and this would lead to a huge oil crunch around the world with soaring oil prices.
US-Iran Escalating Tensions
Ronnie Ninan
Image courtesy: AFP/Getty Images
Iran and the USA have had a very troubled past since the forced imposition of a Shah by the US government on Iran in the 1950s, leading to the Iranian revolution in 1979 and later US-backed Iraq war with Iran. But everything seemed calmer after the Iran nuclear deal was signed which limited Iran from enriching Uranium and thereby creating stability in the region. Iran kept their part of the promise but on May 2018, President Donald Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), one of the most well-thought-out agreement to bring stability in West Asia by mostly Western powers.
Right after pulling out of the agreement, the Trump administration re-imposed sanctions on Iran and specifically on Iranian oil exports to choke them into coming back to the discussion table. Calling the Iran nuclear agreement "ineffective" the USA also blames Iran for supporting the Syrian and Venezuelan governments for providing them with aid. The USA also mentioned concerns over Iranian support of Hezbollah and Houthi rebels who have destabilized the region. Threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, the lifeline of many oil exporting countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and, Iraq are in the mix. Considering a million barrels of oil transported from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz to many countries like South Korea, India, China, Japan, and Turkey, shows the importance of such a threat to Iran and the neighbours.
With the increased pressure on the five oil importing countries from Iran, they would have to stop importing post-May 2nd, giving them a breathing period to find alternatives. Reflecting on this, the five Iranian crude oil importers have a tightrope to walk avoiding any sanctions placed on them by the USA. Sources cite that Iran could be losing more USD 10-billion due to these sanctions. The next few months would be crucial and unpredictable, considering the lack of mutual trust between both countries.