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The Prime Minister of U.K., Theresa May, lost in the first round of voting for the Brexit deal last week, also making it one of the largest defeats in the sitting government where 118 of the votes coming against the PM originated from her own party. Subsequently, she narrowly escaped a vote of no confidence, setting a state of instability and confusion in the House of Commons. Divided factions in both the Conservative and the Labour Party are further worsening the situation with contrasting opinions.
May proposed a Plan B on 21 January 2019, which makes her heavily rely on the opposition votes. Opposition leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn plans on increasing the anti- Brexit campaigns leading to a second referendum, broadly claiming it to be the 'People's Vote'. The Prime Minister needs overwhelming support from the Democratic Unionist Party members. One of the major reasons for opposition is the border issue between the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland. Both the U.K. and the E.U. do not want to hamper the peace process but a no-deal Brexit will lead to an adamant E.U. with stricter border control, as stated by the European Council President, Donald Tusk.
Several other reasons have led to four kinds of BREXIT deals: hard, soft, no and chequered deal. A no-deal Brexit could mean disastrous for the U.K with no transition period. The country would have to rework their trade deals and establish new treaty agreements with all the E.U. Members.
President Ashraf Ghani launched his re-election campaign trail by registering his nomination at the National Election Commission as a candidate for the upcoming July 20 elections in Afghanistan. He delivered a prolonged speech focusing on poverty and new peace measures to end the protracted 17 year armed struggle in the country in a "just and honourable way". However, the upcoming elections will be overshadowed by the peace talks with the Taliban insurgents who refuse to talk with Ghani's government and who only accept US mediation whilst continuously waging attacks on the country.
Among his potential rivals to the Presidential race, the candidature of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar seems interesting. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is a famous Afghan warlord, who in his efforts as an anti-Soviet individual waged civil war in Kabul, leading to the death of 50.000 civilians in 1992. As a result of the peacetime power-sharing efforts, he held the post of the Prime Minister of Afghanistan from 1993 and 1994 and briefly again at 1996. After the emergence of Taliban, he took refuge in Pakistan and in 2001 he tried to fight the international coalition with his new paramilitary forces but was largely unsuccessful. He received a pardon from the Afghan government in 2016 and returned to the country after almost 20 years in exile. His candidature thus remains a very interesting one.
The Omar al-Bashir's government in Sudan is witnessing an uprising by the people since 19 December 2018. The protest reached adequate mass when the government decided to increase the price of bread, a staple food in Sudan. The protestors claim they are protesting against the corrupt government that has mismanaged natural resources and blocked internet facilities. People are naturally unhappy as healthcare facilities are inadequate, and unemployment and social instability is on the rise.
Sudan has suffered from a civil war that lasted for around 20 years, it later faced partition and sanctions. These protests have come 2 years after the USA has removed all forms of economic sanctions in exchange for Sudan's cooperation on counter-terrorism. Even with an absence of external vulnerabilities, the Sudanese economy has not risen. Al-Bashir has hit back with the arrest of leaders of the National Congress, the main opposition party, and has arrested dissident artists and opened fire on the protestors.
In the Arab world, such a situation can lead to further complications, if al-Bashir continues to fight against the protestors then it could lead to another civil war with countless casualties. However, if al-Bashir decides to step down and pave the path for a democratically elected government then there is a big possibility of a coup d'etat as the Sudanese Army is trained in civil war and receives 25% of the country's budget. The situation would be deeply reminiscent of the events in Egypt post the Arab Spring protests.
France is facing an on-going "Yellow Vest" protest against their President Emanuel Macron that started in the month of November and sees no sign of ending soon. These protests commenced due to rising fuel prices, high cost of living and an extraordinary tax burden falling on the country's middle class or the working class. The recent developments suggest that protests, which started in Paris, are now spreading across the country and gaining momentum, the Saturday's demonstration being one of the biggest involving 84,000 people out which 7,000 turned up in Paris and 10,000 turned up in south western city of Toulouse.
President Macron facing backlash from its people who are demanding for his resignation. The demonstration which had begun peacefully ended on violent note, as protesters resorted to the use of firecrackers, bottles and stones and the police force responded with water cannon and tear gas. The agitation saw protesters vandalising banks and other shops. The local authorities estimate that 8 people were injured and there were 23 arrests.
The French President faces pressure from the citizens to resign amidst this chaos but the government has taken strong steps in supressing the movement. The immediate future of the protests remains uncertain and the leadership shows no sign of any upcoming reforms or changes to its policies.
Somalia based terror group Al-Shabaab has claimed the responsibility for the terror attack in Nairobi, Kenya that reportedly killed around 21 people on January 15 2019. The four suspected militants attacked a luxury hotel DusitD2 as well as offices in the complex. According to reports, the attack began around 1500hrs local time, when the gunmen threw bombs at vehicles in the car park before entering the hotel lobby. Soon after, security forces entered the building and more than 100 people were rescued from the complex and taken to a nearby trauma centre and hospital.
It is stated that the Intelligence services in Kenya were previously warned about possible attacks from Al-Shabaab on high-profile targets. Kenya has been the most often targeted East-African country and has been facing violence from Al-Shabaab since 2008. This decade-long insurgency is mainly a retaliation effort from the militant group against the Kenyan Defence Force's incursion in Somalia.
The group often attacks restaurants and hotels, using similar tactics such as those employed in the Nairobi attacks. Al-Shabaab specifically attacks Kenya because of the press coverage due to Kenya's high international visibility. Its relatively free media widely publicises terrorist attacks, which the group can then exploit as part of its own propaganda.