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In a move to end the conflict in the Syrian province of Idlib, which is being termed as the last frontier to be conquered to put an end to the Syrian conflict, the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran met in Tehran on the 7th of September. While traditional allies of Assad’s regime Russia and Iran have backed a military offensive against the last captured territory by the rebels, Turkey has stated its concerns about such a move. Turkey is concerned about the flood of refugees entering its own territory from the Idlib region, which share the international border. With more than 3 million people inhabiting the region, with mostly Syrians displaced from other parts of Syria, the chances of creating refugees with a full on bloody military offensive is not far fetched. However, Iran and Russia are of a different opinion as they claim around 10000 rebel fighters have taken refuge in Idlib and are willing to leave no stone unturned for a military triumph. Backing, this move President Assad has approved the use of Chlorine gas in the region to annihilate his opponents. Turkey’s Erdogan asked Europe to brace for a new wave of refugees from Idlib in case of any military action. Meanwhile the United States, the UN have asked Iran and Russia for patience and restraint to deal with the issue including USA’s UN ambassador Nikki Haley threatening Russia and Iran of “dire consequences” for any military action in Idlib.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was said to be a landmark foreign investment venture in Pakistan by China and was said to bring economic growth and development to the less development parts of Pakistan like Balochistan. China has invested 62 billion dollars into this project, as it is a vital part of the Belt and Road Initiative, which will revive the ancient Silk Road and link the Asian continent with Europe. CPEC will link the Xinjian province in China, which is rich in resources, to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar port through infrastructure development to enhance connectivity.
However, hailed as what could be the ‘Marshall Plan’ in Pakistan has also put huge pressure on the Pakistani economy, as Pakistan, in time, will have to repay 90 billion dollars to China. Pakistan is said to be on the verge of a massive debt crisis due to the demands of CPEC and will appeal to the IMF for its 13th bailout in 30 years.Concessions given to Chinese companies are proving disadvantageous for Pakistani companies, along with China’s handling of the ongoing projects. Chinese labour and materials are being used which isn’t benefiting the Pakistani economy as much. Overall, projects seem to be shrouded in secrecy without any clear accountability.
Wary of China’s ‘debt trap diplomacy’ after witnessing China’s dealing with Sri Lanka over Hambantota port, the new Prime Minister Imran Khan was rumoured to be considering a renegotiation of the terms of CPEC with China. Pakistan is not inclined to outright cancel the deal but plans to put the it on hold until the government can revaluate the project and ‘get their act together’.
In another instance of appalling developments in the US foreign policy under the Trump administration, the current National Security Advisor John Bolton has threatened to “issue sanctions” against those involved in investigations for alleged crimes committed by USA in Afghanistan. This comes as no shock since the US never ratified International Criminal Court, which is an intergovernmental organisation established in 2002 under the Rome Statute as a permanent court set up in response to massive human rights abuses, war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in countries like Rwanda and Yugoslavia. The move can be viewed as part of the current administration’s disregard for international agreements to which 123 members are party. As a consequence of increasing political isolationist policies by the President, with USA pulling out of Paris climate agreement to scrapping the Iran deal, it puts into question the role of US as the facilitator of a rules based order as well as international law. International agreements are the basis of global cooperation for a world order and such a public dismissal by one of the leading democracies could stagger the confidence of that of others. As a response to the threat, The Hague based organisation declared that it would continue and will not be dissuaded from its global mission.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki opened their nation’s gates at Burre, a region that saw one of the most destructive war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, to each other. The two nations have agreed to withdraw troops and carry out trainings and camps to ease the tensions that exists at the border.
The Eritrean war of independence that began in 1961 lasted until 1991. Several attempts at reconciliation were made by regional and international bodies, which did not lead to any positive outcomes. The border drawn between the two nations became the major cause of contention leading to attacks by both Eritrean and Ethiopian armies increasing the hostility between the two.
The agreement was signed on July 9, in Asmara, the Eritrean capital and the two nations are now taking efforts at restoring ties. The Eritrean government has also agreed to provide the landlocked nation of Ethiopia access to its ports. Embassies of both the nations have reopened, commercial flights have resumed, and telephone lines restored.
After two decades of war, opening of the border will lead to easier flow of trade and movement of people across borders. This indicates not only strengthening economic and diplomatic ties but also deepening of people-to-people connection. This reconciliation is a crucial development in the fragile region of Horn of Africa with an unstable Somalia and the growing strategic importance in the military port nation of Djibouti.