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The book "After Tiananmen: The Rise of China" is the third in the trilogy authored by Shri Vijay Gokhale, India's former Foreign Secretary. The first part, titled “Tiananmen Square: Making of a Protest,” details the events leading up to the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989. His latest work takes over from the first book to describe the events post-Tiananmen, giving the audience a historical sense of China’s endeavor to reach the position it stands in today.
It is important to note that only a few in India understand the nuances of Chinese society, as the author does. Having served as an Indian Foreign Service Officer, he holds a rare distinction in his career of serving in both mainland China and Taiwan. As Indian Ambassador to China, the author played a significant role in resolving the Doklam Crisis of 2017. Recognized as one of India's most reputed sinologists, he now serves as a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie India, New Delhi. He provides more than a traditional scholarly understanding of China through the book. He lays out information in a sense that engages the everyday reader instead of focusing on the micro details that might be of interest only to a foreign policy academic or practitioner.
The author provides a historical narrative, essentially making the reader understand the nuances of Chinese behavior in the contemporary era, bringing out the critical challenges and decisions that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had to make in the post-Cold War era. It brings to light the complexities of China’s internal affairs and its decisions and outcomes in the external environment. The book answers some of the most crucial questions that account for a considerable debate in the strategic discourse. Some of these answers include how China managed to avoid the Soviet mistake, how it did things differently than India, and the underlying lessons that other states can take regarding bringing foreign investors in. The book calls attention to a significant but overlooked facet of Chinese history. While it is generally believed that post-1992-China, for two decades, struggled on the global stage until Xi Jinping took up the leadership, the book reveals that it was during these two decades that China boldly experimented with ideas to become a global superpower and that Xi Jinping is a continuation of decades-long strategic vision.
To describe the shift in post-1993 Chinese economic affairs, the author uses two words, i.e., ‘competition’ and ‘decentralization,’ and how the CCP had experimented with both these ideas, particularly, the special economic zones. These were aimed at reforming the state-dominated economic system, improving the efficiency of bureaucracy, ensuring reforms were brought as per local conditions, and reducing any scope of massive intervention by central authorities to avoid any other event like the Great Leap Forward. Chapter 2 further elaborates on how the need to reduce the dependency of the Chinese economy upon imported raw materials controlled by others led to the ‘going-out policy.’ The book here sheds light on the geostrategic element of the policy, where this problem later came to be known as the “Malacca Dilemma.”
Aptly named Chapters 3 and 4, “Playing the West'' and “Wooing the Rest” brings to the attention of the readers how the Chinese leaders, over a period of 20 years, kept their true intentions hidden and maintained a somewhat subordinate position in front of the West to achieve its foreign policy objectives. For instance, when Hu Jintao used the slogan ‘China’s peaceful rise,’ it caused concerns, particularly in its periphery, regarding China’s true intentions. To avoid any perception of China preparing to challenge the global system, the slogan was rephrased as ‘China’s peaceful development.’ Through this, China received foreign capital and technology that benefited its economy, simultaneously creating international support for China in international organizations. As a result, China began to expand its influence globally by 2010. The book dives into the Chinese foreign policy influence complemented by its military modernization and expansion. It brings to foreground China’s acquisition of Varyag, later renamed Liaoning, the Malacca Dilemma, and the doctrinal shifts in its naval planning to secure the sea lanes of communication. Further, it explains how this led to diplomatic and potential military challenges to China. This prompted the CCP leadership to address external threats by revamping civil-military relations and finding a new modus vivendi with the People’s Liberation Army ensuring political control over the Army.
The last two chapters answer two of the most crucial questions in the contemporary era. They give an account of the period between 1990 and 2010 when China became more integrated into the international arena and appeared more stable in a post-Deng political landscape. It is important to note that Communism as the Party ideology acted as the sociopolitical adhesive that kept the regime functional. However, the world did not notice that it was during this period when a populist and nationalist force consolidated itself due to the steady erosion of ideology within the Party.
The author asserts that ignoring China would be impossible, as neglecting the United States of America during the globalization era was impossible. He implies that China will have a prolonged sociological influence in the global society to the likes of the US. This suggests that China sees itself shaping the international order as per its stand in the world today. It has been evident that China is not only able to equalize itself against the West in the international liberal order but is also making genuine strides toward rebalancing the power structures within the international state system. If such is the case, understanding the nuances of Chinese society and thought processes become crucial, and it is these overlooked instances in history that the author, through his years of experience as a practitioner, offers from his book, “After Tiananmen: The Rise of China.”