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China's Water Weaponisation: Implications for India's Security

China's Water Weaponisation: Implications for India's Security

Vidya J


Introduction

Water has always been the key determinant in the success and downfall of human civilisation through the ages of humanity. History has always known civilisations to thrive, or fall based on how effectively they could control and harness water for their cities, agriculture, and industries. The ancient societies of Egypt, Rome, and China developed by managing their water for various purposes. Egypt's Nile River irrigation, Rome's advanced water supply systems, and China's urban water cycling system through canals, etc., all highlight water's role in development. (Mays, 2010) (Zheng, 2015) In the Modern Era, the construction of dams and canals paved the way for the states to exhibit their power and political ideologies through the control of water resources. However, an even more pressing issue is the global crisis of increasing water scarcity. Climate change driven by population growth, industrialisation, and pollution has made it difficult to access available freshwater sources. Just as oil resources shaped world politics in the 20th century, the need for fresh water is expected to create rifts among states as well as within states in the 21st century.

The region most affected by this global crisis is the Asian continent, which faces various challenges due to water scarcity. Studies show that Asia, home to 60% of the world's total population, has the lowest per capita availability of freshwater compared to other regions, falling below the global average (Subramanian, 2019). Many of Asia's growing economies, such as China, India, South Korea, and Vietnam, are already experiencing water stress as the demand for water exceeds the available supply. Along with this, the extraction of freshwater resources leads to 'water insecurity', where struggle to meet their water needs, causing nations to fight each other to exert control over water. Asia's water-related challenges are not just limited to any particular country but affect regional stability. As many Asian countries share water resources like lakes and rivers, water-related conflicts are on the rise, increasing the possibility of 'water wars". In his book Water: Asia's New Battleground, international geostrategic analyst, Brahma Chellaney writes that China has the upper hand in exerting control over water resources. This is due to its geographical position as an upstream country and the river water source for many regional countries.


China's Perspective on Water

China's approach to water management is defined by its unique geography and the challenges posed by water scarcity (Manhas, 2023). The water crisis in China is exacerbated by climate change, leading to a decline in glacial runoff into the Yangtze River, thereby limiting the region's freshwater supply. Increasing temperatures have also resulted in irregular rainfall patterns. Compounding these issues, China has an uneven distribution of freshwater resources, with the majority of them located in the south, while the north is heavily dependent on groundwater. Due to the over-extraction of groundwater, the country is running low on water supply, and much of the remaining freshwater is unfit for consumption due to climate change and pollution (Leung, 2023). The country's water shortage aggravated by developmental projects, is adding to the existing water demands. In response, China has decided to procure water from nearby sources to achieve water stability. The low availability of water resources has led to severe competition both within the country and with neighbouring nations. Hence, the only option available for China is to weaponize the water and gather as much water as possible. The main part of China's 21st-century infrastructural projects is the construction of dams in the transboundary rivers shared with their neighbouring countries. As Asia's water tower, China's transboundary water policies significantly affect downstream nations and impact regional stability.


China's Quest for Regional Water Supremacy:

China leverages its geographical advantage as an upstream country to influence or even dominate its neighbours, which can be seen in how China handles water resources. Since the 1950s, China has been involved in the massive dam-building process (Ganeshpandian, 2024). It has almost 98,000 dams/ reservoirs, including approximately 40% of the world's largest dams (Song et al., 2022), enabling them to regulate the water flow according to their will, which can create a catastrophe for other countries and even affect regional stability. Adding to this, China's reluctance to sign or join any transboundary water agreements for water sharing adds to the neighbouring countries' concerns (Hongzhou & Mingjiang, 2019). The main concern is that, at present, the country stores and releases water at its will without considering its neighbours' needs resulting in floods and droughts. For example, China held back water in the Mekong River Dams, causing drought in Southeast Asian countries, and in some cases, its sudden release of water caused flooding in the region (Lowy Institute, 2020). In 2017, during the Doklam standoff, China used water as a weapon against India by withholding hydrological data regarding the Brahmaputra River, contributing to unusual floods in Assam (Lowy Institute, 2023). Such actions could potentially cause immense damage, similar to the catastrophic impact feared if the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric dam, were to fail. Built in 2003 to control the Yangtze River, the dam is vulnerable to destruction from events like earthquakes. Moreover, corruption during Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) can lead to the construction of ineffective dams, which if compromised, would cause damage to other downstream dams.

As an upstream country, China has a strategic advantage over the Great Himalayan Watershed, since most of the region's largest rivers originate from the Tibetan plateau. Rivers like the Yellow, the Mekong, the Brahmaputra, the Indus, etc., provide water to several downstream countries. India and Bangladesh are the most affected by China's water hegemony. India and China share around 15 rivers with the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung - Zangbo River in China) being the most contested. Studies show that the excessive number of dams constructed on this river benefits China, but have devastating effects on both India and Bangladesh (Zamlha, 2020). By controlling the Brahmaputra's water resources, China can decrease the overall water flow to both India and Bangladesh. This implies that China's water management practices would affect India's water security. China's dam construction and water allocation policies raise concerns, as increased water demand in China could further reduce water availability for downstream countries, due to increased diversion of river waters.


Implications for India

The geopolitical implications of China's water policies are evident in how the country exerts dominance by controlling freshwater resources without directly resorting to military intervention. Rivers such as the Brahmaputra, the Sutlej, and the Indus flow through both India and China and are essential for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower development. In the case of the Brahmaputra, the river has become a flashpoint between India and China. The river's strategic importance, coupled with China's lack of transparent river policies has made it a point of contention. The main issue is the lack of proper water-sharing or data-sharing agreements between the two countries. Currently, both nations rely on a few Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), such as the MoU on the Brahmaputra/ Yaluzangbu River, and the MoU on the Sutlej/ Langqen Zangbo River, which were signed together to obtain hydrological data and are periodically updated (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2023). One positive note in this situation is that the dispute has not escalated into a violent conflict, as both countries have chosen to 'de-securitize the water dispute' to avoid further complicating their relations. (Ho, 2020). This approach is partly due to China's statement that their dams are 'run-of-the-river' types, which are suitable to store or to divert large amounts of water.

In reality, these dams are large enough to be converted into storage dams, allowing China to use them as a weapon to control the flow of water by releasing and blocking the water supply at will. If China were to block the water, then the area near the Zangmu dam would be deprived of water, severely affecting irrigation and the livelihoods of the local people. The release of the flood water would result in the loss of slit in the Brahmaputra River Basin, which contributes to the fertility of the Assam region. This loss would negatively affect agriculture, as the sediments would get trapped in the dams (Journals of India, 2021). Additionally, the construction of large hydropower projects in geologically sensitive areas, like the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra River, poses significant risks. Since the Indian plate collides with the Eurasian plate in this region, it is considered a highly volatile plate and is prone to earthquakes. Frequent seismic activity could compromise the structural integrity of large dams, resulting in potential failures with devastating effects for both the upstream and the downstream countries. For instance, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in Chengdu, China, which killed more than 70,000 people, was linked to the construction of the Zipingpu Dam, highlighting the urgency to address these issues (Mason, 2009).


Conclusion

Scholars have noted the difficulty in initiating or negotiating a water allocation treaty or an agreement between countries, especially those sharing the South Asian transboundary rivers, with the Indus Water Treaty being a notable exception. The existing mechanisms and MoUs between India and China are non-binding and lack a comprehensive multilateral treaty governing water resources. As a result of this, misunderstandings have arisen in the co-riparian nations in this region. Water has the potential to both create conflict and foster cooperation among countries. Unilaterally, no country can make any decision regarding shared water resources; however, establishing common interests and goals can help to overcome conflict and promote cooperation. Hence, India and China need a comprehensive plan to address water disputes, setting aside the existing border issues. It is also important to handle this issue with varied perspectives, rather than just looking at China from a 'Realist' perspective, which contributes to the securitization of water resources. Promoting dialogue and cooperation to peacefully manage shared water resources is more crucial than ever.

(Vidya J is MA International Studies student (2023-25 batch) at the Symbiosis School of International Studies)


References
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