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Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai was in India for a three day visit from 20th May. He held discussions with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh regarding the situation in the region including conveying Afghanistan's keenness to enhance defence cooperation with India and get a commitment for supply of "lethal and non-lethal" weapons. While there was no official statement by the Indian government on the outcome of the meeting, Karzai met the Indian press the next day.
Addressing media persons in New Delhi, the Afghan President said he has given a wish-list of military equipment to India, and that it was now up to the Indian government to act. Karzai also said that he was in favour of Indian officials joining the military academies set up by the UK and US in Kabul to provide training to the ANSF.
Also raised in the media prior to the Afghan President’s visit was the issue of Indian government evaluating the possibility of stationing troops in Afghanistan after NATO/ISAF begin leaving the country in 2014. The Indian Ministry of Defence was reported as saying no decision has yet been taken, but the possibility of putting boots in Afghanistan is under consideration. On the subject, Karzai said he did not expect New Delhi to fight terrorism in Afghanistan by sending troops there nor was there any such requirement.
Wish list
Equipping the ANSF suitably, at present and post 2014, has been on top of Karzai’s agenda and figured actively in his talks with President Obama during his visit to US in January this year. He was quite elated when the US promised to provide UAVs for intelligence gathering. Internally too the equipment for ANSF has been a concern and recently the Afghan National Security Council ordered the purchase of five Russian Antonov cargo planes for its air force.
When Karzai arrived in New Delhi on 21 May, armed with a wish-list that included 105 millimeter artillery, An.32 medium-lift aircraft, bridge-laying equipment, trucks not many analysts were surprised. The Afghan requests for military hardware to India were first revealed in November 2012.
The US and NATO have been alive to the equipment requirement of the ANSF, particularly post 2014. With Russian cooperation that started in 2011, US had ordered 33 new Mi-17 helicopters for the ANSF costing $640 million. NATO, US and Russia have established a Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF) to support Afghanistan’s fleet of Russian-built Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters. They also plan to set up a maintenance center for these Mi-17 helicopters in Afghanistan. Recently the Russian state arms export agency announced the delivery of twelve Mi-17V5 military transport helicopters to ANSF by the end of 2013. Twenty-one Mi-17V5s have already been delivered.
In February this year the US Air Force selected Brazil’s Embraer SA to provide light air support aircraft and associated maintenance and training for the Afghan air force under a $427 million contract. 20 aircraft are scheduled to be delivered to Afghanistan in early summer of 2014, to conduct advanced flight training, surveillance and air support missions.
Karzai’s India trip and the military wish list came against the backdrop some major events whose understanding is important to put the visit in perspective. First of these events was the recent border skirmishes with Pakistan over the construction of defence fortifications in a contested border area. The current clashes have stirred intense anti-Pakistan sentiments in Afghanistan and a protest in Kandahar against the Pakistani actions had caused the death of 11 protesters. The Afghan police complained they had been out-gunned and wanted artillery support. Karzai has played to his political constituency on the issue.
The next is the ongoing spring offensive in Afghanistan and the ability of the ANSF to take on the Taliban. The performance and the resilience of the ANSF has been assessed to have crucial bearing on a host of important issues on the horizon, such as the conduct of Presidential in 2014, negotiation of the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US ect.
As a part of its drawdown, the U.S. helicopter fleet in Afghanistan is thinning down. The Afghan air force with its existing fleet of 60 helicopters is finding it difficult to take on the operational requirements which are peaking as the spring offensive is picking up, particularly affecting casualty evacuation. This gap in air evacuation capacity could result in avoidable casualties for want of immediate medical attention. This has prompted a crisis of confidence in many Afghan units and troops might be less willing to put their lives at risk knowing that medical support may not be forthcoming. Karzai needs to bridge this capability gap urgently before it starts affecting the performance of the ANSF.
The successful conduct of free and fair elections in Pakistan and the election of Nawaz Sharif to lead the new government has brought fresh hope not only for Indo-Pak relations but also for Afghan-Pak peace, irrespective what Sharif’s past record in this regard would indicate. To that end Karzai can be seen as consolidating his negotiating position by leveraging the issue of Indian support, particularly military support, to Afghanistan.
India on its part looked to play along with Karzai when it articulated its position by stating that supply of military (combat) equipment to Afghanistan is within the purview of the Strategic Partnership Agreement between the two countries. The government went on to add that even though India has chosen to base its strategy in Afghanistan on economic, development and trade cooperation, India would be well within its rights to address security and political factors impinging on its strategy
Assessment
First, most analysts would concur that at this stage an arms deal with Afghanistan or even a notion of one would be detrimental to regional stability and good relations between India and Pakistan. The same could be said about the possibility of stationing troops in Afghanistan after the international forces begin leaving the country in 2014.
Second, with NATO/ISAF drawdown in progress the list of the equipment being hauled back out of Afghanistan has been heavily pruned, leaving sufficient stores and equipment for the ANSF. The Pentagon is accelerating the transfer and deployment of mortars and artillery to the ANSF to compensate for the loss of US air support in the country due to downsizing. The Afghan air force is not expected to be fully operational until 2016 at the earliest.
Weaponry that has not been provided to the ANSF as yet will only be provided after it invokes some confidence in the NATO/ISAF by displaying the will and ability to withstand the Taliban attacks during the current offensive. The same condition would also applicable for Indian military support. The consequences of donor military equipment falling in Taliban’s hands could be severe.
There is a related matter of the US military hardware being left behind in Afghanistan. It is assessed to be large enough to equip a sizeable army and includes up to 30,000 MRAPs and Humvees, night-combat equipment, grenade-resistant netting, light and medium machine guns, rocket launchers. Pakistan has put in a bid for some of this equipment including equipment discarded by UK, for cooperating with the NATO during their drawdown from Afghanistan. The request is actively being considered by both, US and UK and it is worrying Afghanistan.
Lastly, given the implications the supply of military equipment to Afghanistan the issue cannot be looked at bilaterally, especially as the deployment of the NATO troops in Afghanistan is likely to continue beyond 2014. Indian military assistance would be in consultation and coordination with the US and other donor countries positioning troops in Afghanistan and providing material and financial assistance to the ANSF.
What India should look to do from the present, something that Afghanistan desperately needs, is to assist in repair, maintenance and upgradation of weaponry of Russian origin in Afghanistan’s inventory and its recent acquisition of Russian equipment. India has the expertise and the requisite logistics for the task particularly in the case of armoured vehicles, helicopters and transport aircraft.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)