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It is not unusual to find the situation on the Korean peninsula turning suddenly grave with fears of an armed conflict breaking out along the 38th parallel. Panmunjom on the North and South Korean border (not far from Seoul) continues to remain one of the most intimidating places. It is for this reason that the exchange of strong words and a strident tone from the North in the last couple of weeks was not initially considered a serious departure from past situations. However, this time the continued hard-hitting posture and sharp statements from North Korea have raised the spectre of a nuclear confrontation in Northeast Asia with its attendant implications for the Asia-Pacific region and far beyond.
There is speculation all around as what has provoked North Korea( Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea ) to announce or take a series of steps in the last few months leading to the present extraordinary situation. No one seems quite clear about this. Of course the enigmatic North Korean leadership was known to spread such fears in the past. Kim Jong-un, the 29 year grandson of North Korea’s founder-leader Kim il Sung is now barely a year in office and his policies or instincts are not yet fully known . North Korea’s testing of an advanced-level 3-tier missile last December and its nuclear test in February considerably shook the U.S and its allies, Japan and South Korea. Even China which steadfastly backs North Korea through one crisis or the other has felt greatly concerned with the North Korean tests. The UN sanctions against the North which were further tightened after the February nuclear tests has put the people of North Korea under further hardship especially since China is also finding it hard to meet the North Korean demands for food and fuel.
The strategic dynamics of the Korean peninsula seems to move in an action and reaction pattern. Following the North Korean nuclear tests in February, the U.S, in its annual exercises with South Korea deployed nuclear- capable stealth bombers across South Korea. This seemed to be the turning point for the North. Since then they have adopted a very aggressive posture in which they announced that their nuclear-tipped missiles were in readiness to attack the U.S bases in Japan and the Guam island in the Pacific. North also declared that they would annul the 1953 Armistice agreement which had brought the Korean War to an end and that they were in a ‘state of war’ with the U.S and its allies.
The U.S Secretary of State John Kerry has stated that the U.S will fully defend itself and its allies. While the U.S also announced moving its anti-missile batteries to Guam and has deployed warships near the Korean peninsula it decided to postpone the test of its inter-continental ballistic missile in California. The U.S seems in a quandary. While they have stated that they regard the North Korean steps as a real danger and are not dismissing the North Korean announcements as a rhetoric they do not seem to clearly know what the North Korean leader actually wants in the present imbroglio. Is the situation primarily a creation for domestic consumption with a view to consolidating Kim’s position in the country or to seek an assurance from the U.S that there will be no attempt towards a ‘regime change’ a la Iraq or Libya or is this situation a part of a pattern in which there is a threatening posture every time a new President assumes office in South Korea ? As of now there are no military movements of a scale which would point towards preparation for a war though North Korea has moved its powerful 3000 km range Masudan missiles to the east coast and advised all diplomatic missions in Pyongyang and also foreign companies and tourists in Seoul to evacuate .
Behind the North Korean and U.S confrontation is the critical issue of nuclear proliferation by the North. The latter’s nuclear build-up has continued to create deep concern all across the Asia-Pacific. The Six Party Talks among the U.S, Japan, China ,Russia and North and South Korea in 2007 had resulted in North Korea agreeing to suspend its nuclear programme. In return,North Korea was to receive food aid, economic assistance which they later did . Following this , visits of senior officials of the U.S to the North had also created hopes of a U.S-North Korea diplomatic engagement. However, subsequent nuclear tests by the North put an end to the agreement. Recent announcements from the North that they are going to’ readjust and restart’ a uranium enrichment plant and the 5 MW reactor at Yongbyon ( which was mothballed in 2007) has sent a fearful warning. The Workers’ Party of North Korea even declared that nuclear weapons were ‘the nation’s life’ and will not be traded even for billion dollars.
The geopolitics of Northeast Asia is worsening by the day. North Korea has stopped South Korean managers from coming to the Kaesong industrial estate set up with the assistance from South Korea. Thousands of North Koreans had received employment here. A shutdown of the Kaesong complex will severely hit the already fledgling North Korean economy.
How to resolve the present impasse on the Korean peninsula is the current preoccupation in the Asia-Pacific. If the main objectives of the North were to seek recognition as a nuclear power or to force the U.S for direct negotiations with the North it appears that these may not be fulfilled by their present actions. China, a close ally of the North also seems frustrated by the latter’s posture and announcements. China’s President speaking at the Bao Forum gave an indication to this effect when he stated on 7th April that ‘no country should be allowed to throw a region into chaos . ’At the same time the longer the current deadlock continues the greater will be North Korea’s dependence on China and also the influence of China in brokering a solution to the crisis. Today no other country appears to be in the same position as China. The U.S Secretary is reportedly traveling to Beijing this weekend to hold talks with the Chinese on the Korean situation. How and when North Korea should be engaged in negotiations thus reducing its apprehension of isolation from the international community would be an important consideration especially in view of the need for the maintenance of peace and security in the Asia-Pacific. North Korea’s threatening posture is already creating domestic pressures in Japan and South Korea towards nuclearisation or development of advanced missiles.
India and DPRK have traditional relations. Although the content in bilateral relations has been low, especially compared to that with South Korea, India has maintained formal contacts all along. Even now Foreign Office consultations at senior officials’ level were recently held. Bilateral trade has gone up substantially in recent years. India has however been concerned with the nuclear and missile technology cooperation between China, Pakistan and North Korea. For this reason, and in view of India’s increasing association and interest in peace and stability in the Asia- Pacific , the present developments in the Korean peninsula call for close and careful attention .
Mr. Sudhir T. Devare is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs and presently Shri Ram Sathe Chair Professor, Symbiosis International University.