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Georgia's presidential election in October will take place during a time of profound domestic and foreign policy changes. Such changes are but the latest manifestation of a long and complicated history that is ultimately rooted in geography. Georgia's strategic location in the Caucasus has subjected it to foreign influence and domination by powers from multiple directions. And its internal geography, which is marked by the Greater Caucasus and Lesser Caucasus mountain ranges, has made uniting the country as difficult as repelling outside forces. Geography will continue to shape Georgian domestic and foreign policy in the future, regardless of who wins the election, just as it has in the past.
Located in a transcontinental zone between Europe and Asia, Georgia has been dominated or otherwise divided by Western and Eastern powers for most of its history. Indeed, its occupation and partition goes back millennia. In the pre-Christian era, the kingdom of Kartli-Iberia, located in what is now modern day Georgia, experienced influences from the ancient Greeks to the West and the ancient Persians to the East. Throughout the first millennium, Georgia was divided between the Byzantine and Persian empires, though its adoption of Christianity in part of the millennium brought it closer to Byzantium culturally.
Beginning with the reign of David the Builder, Georgia experienced a "Golden Age" in the 11th and 12th centuries, when foreign forces were driven out of the country and various kingdoms and principalities were brought unified into a Georgian state. This unification was short-lived, however, as the Mongol invasion of the 13th century ended Georgia's independence and ushered in a long period of decline that subjected the country to further foreign influence. When Byzantium fell to the Ottomans, Georgia's trade ties with Western Europe were severed, and thus began several centuries of domination by Ottomans and Persians. Once more closely connected to the Byzantine Empire, Georgia now found itself enveloped by Eastern powers.
This East-West divide started to erode in the late 18th and 19th centuries, when a new imperial power -- Russia -- overtook Georgia in its quest to dominate the Caucasus region. Georgia initially called on Russia, a fellow Orthodox country, to protect it against the Muslim Persians and Ottomans, but it was eventually incorporated into the Russian Empire itself. Under Imperial Russian rule, the Transcaucasus railway was built across central Georgia, uniting eastern and western Georgia with a transport route for the first time in its history.
Still, Georgia could not overcome its internal divisions. Because of the country's mountainous terrain, Georgia's various non-Georgian ethnic groups have maintained autonomy for millennia. These groups, which include Abkhazians, Ossetians, Svans, Armenians and Turks, preserved their culture and identity just as Georgia as a nation was able to survive centuries of occupation and division. When the Russian Empire collapsed and gave rise to the Soviet Union (between which Georgia had a very brief and unstable period of independence), the Soviets organized Georgian territory so as to exploit ethnic and inter-communal differences. Best exemplifying the Soviet reorganization are the Abkhazians and Ossetians, who were given their own autonomous territories -- Abkhazia and South Ossetia, respectively -- within the Georgian Soviet republic.
Georgia became independent after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, but its geographic realities endured, leaving it with two major problems. First, it was still surrounded by large foreign powers, and second, it was still divided internally by numerous ethnic groups that did not want to be fully incorporated into Georgia. This was further aggravated by a weak government, which was reeling from the absence of Soviet economic support, and by an aggressive nationalistic approach pursued by the country's first president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia. Georgia descended into civil war early in the post-Soviet era. The war included military conflict with breakaway republics in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both supported by Russia, which was still relatively strong despite the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia's backing of these breakaway territories and its enduring interest in Georgia eventually piqued the interests of Europe and the United States. Former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze sought to counter Russian influence by cooperating with the West militarily and economically through alliances with NATO and the European Union. Current President Mikhail Saakashvili intensified these efforts. For their part, Western powers were interested in Georgia because they saw it as security leverage against Russia. Moreover, because of its location Georgia could serve as an energy transit route, linking neighboring Azerbaijan to Europe, that bypassed Russia. The current Russian-EU/NATO competition over Georgia mirrors similar competitions by rival powers that have gone on for centuries.
Looking East
For the past decade, the Georgian government under Saakashvili has tried to orient the country to the West, during which Georgia's relations with Russia deteriorated. Relations bottomed out in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, which began over a conflict in South Ossetia. Saakashvili incorrectly predicted that the war would earn the support of NATO. The military alliance simply was not prepared to intervene directly in the war in the face of Russian military action. While Georgia was a committed NATO ally, it was not a NATO member and therefore not subject to Article 5 of the NATO charter that guarantees collective defense among members.
The war prompted South Ossetia and Abkhazia to formally declare independence from Georgia, and Russia quickly increased its military presence and support in these territories. It also damaged relations between Russia and Georgia -- so much so that the two countries broke off economic and diplomatic ties.
While most Georgians believed that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are a rightful part of Georgia, many were wary of Saakashvili's assertiveness, which provoked the Russian military aggression. Furthermore, trade with Russia was an important part of Georgia's small economy. Russia had been the largest destination market for Georgian wine, mineral water and agricultural exports.
It is under these conditions that Saakashvili and his United Naitonal Movement suffered a major setback in parliamentary elections in October 2012. Georgia's opposition had been severely divided since the 2003 Rose Revolution, but 2011 saw the emergence of billionaire retail tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili. Ivanishvili cobbled together much of the fractious opposition parties into the Georgian Dream movement, the ultimate objective of which was to defeat Saakashvili and end his monopoly of political power. Combined with Saakashvili's declining support in the midst of worsening economic conditions, Ivanishvili's substantial finances and grassroots support help beat the United National Movement, earning the billionaire the post of prime minister.
Since then, Ivanishvili and his camp have consolidated power at the expense of Saakashvili's political bloc. Numerous Saakashvili loyalists in key sectors such as the judiciary, industry and security have been replaced with those loyal to Ivanishvili. Many important figures within the United National Movement, including Saakashvili's former prime minister, Vano Merabishvili, have been detained and could face imprisonment. The upcoming presidential election, for which Saakashvili is ineligible to run, could further damage Saakashvili, who himself could face detention on corruption charges. Not only are Saakashvili and his party polling at historical lows, but a constitutional change that would go into force concurrently with elections would give greater powers to the parliament at the expense of the presidency -- thus ensuring that Ivanishvili and his movement will be in a strong position regardless of the outcome.
In terms of Georgia's foreign policy, this has significant implications. Ivanishvili campaigned on a platform of strengthening ties with Russia, particularly in the economic sphere. Already significant changes have been made, with Georgia resuming trade of key goods with Russia and discussions of increased cooperation in other areas, such as energy and security, showing greater potential. Depending on how the internal political situation plays out during and after elections, it is possible that Georgia could be undergoing another broader strategic re-orientation, this time in favor of Russia.
However, several obstacles stand in the way of a complete foreign policy realignment. First, Ivanishvili has maintained, at least nominally, that membership in the European Union and NATO remain Georgia's top foreign policy priorities. Furthermore, Russia's military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain a fundamental deterrent toward any comprehensive normalization of ties between Tbilisi and Moscow. But increasingly it appears as though the fervently pro-Western and anti-Russian orientation of Georgia under Saakashvili, already weakened over the past year, will come to an end after the presidential election.
The emergence of Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream movement represents the latest oscillation in Georgia's foreign policy orientation. But these fluctuations have always been constrained by geography; the larger and stronger powers that surround Georgia -- not the Georgian government -- ultimately shape the country's external and internal policies. Even if such decisions are made subjectively in Tbilisi, history has shown that these will eventually be shaped and corrected by the vast impersonal forces of geopolitics.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)