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While the world is relieved that an American attack on Syria has been temporarily averted, the CIA has not wasted too much time in sending its lethal aids to the Syrian “good rebels”.
The United States is rightly informed by its intelligence assessment that it is difficult to defeat the Syrian army at the moment. The strong Syrian army is still intact and the air defence system is fully operational, despite the internal strife that has lasted for more than 30 months.
The failure of the Americans to attack is because of international pressure, since the circumstantial evidence presented by the US government cannot be discounted. So the moneybags are yet to be replaced with empty shells from missiles supposedly to be fired on Syrians. The $5 Billion deal between France and Saudi Arabia for buying of Rafale planes is still on hold.
There is no proof that the Syrian government was behind the chemical attack in AlGhouta town in rural Damascus on 21st of August , but on the part of the US, the objectives achieved and the intention behind the crisis was to dismantle Syria`s deterrence without raising a finger against Israel`s Nuclear, Chemical and Biological weapons arsenal .
Moscow Gate
Tension in the Mediterranean Sea was high when a Russian warship shot down an American Ballistic missile launched from its military base in Spain that was aimed towards Syria but fell into the sea. Tel Aviv claimed responsibility of testing its Iron Dome in turbulent waters, yet, no one believed this concocted version of the story. Moscow was quick to inform Damascus and Washington that it shot down the missile, conveying a clear warning to Washington that attacking Syria is a “Red line”.
Therefore, the backdoor diplomatic channels were activated to find a political way out of the Syrian crisis, that could save President Barack Obama and his impeachment was delayed despite the message: BO-Must Go ….
The Russians have pulled the carpet from under the USA and its henchmen for the moment but the fate of Syria is yet to be determined.
Do we expect an end to the conflict? The answer is a definite no.
Do we see a movement in the Arab –Israel conflict? No.
Do we see an end to the suffering of the Syrians? Not at all.
Then what is the game plan and the endgame?
The Syrian crisis forced itself on the G20 Summit with such authority that it has divided the world’s power centres. There are those who want to sell the idea of a war, and a few who are pushing for a political solution and an end to the bloodshed that has left more than 14000 citizens dead, two million plus refugees and more than five million internally displaced people.
In addition to those who died because of the chemical gas used against civilians, there is a build up for a war against Syria to teach President Bashar al-Assad a lesson for allegedly using the chemical weapon and deterring him from using it again.
The US and its “Coalition of the Willing“ who plan to attack Syria, unilaterally accused Damascus and are campaigning in different capitals to gain support for the punitive action against what Assad’s forces have apparently done.
Ironically, this campaign is led by online gambler Senator John McCain who was caught playing poker on his mobile during the hearing of the senate on the debate to authorize the President to use force. He admitted laughing his heart out that he lost $1000, this when the fate of a nation and its people was under discussion!
The divisions are widening in the world opinion, and has created a large wave of demonstrations all over the world against attacking another Arab country under a false pretext, while investigation to find out who is responsible is still being conducted by the United Nations.
Syria, if attacked, will be the 9th country attacked or invaded by the US in 15 years. It has moved from the doctrine of R2P (Right to Protect) to a new doctrine R2A (Right to Attack).
A case for intervention in Syria has been conspired since 2007, according to retired Gen. Wesley Clark when he spoke clearly about US’ intention to occupy 7 countries: Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
According to Karl Denninger, USA Tea Party Founder, the Micaville doctrine was not a mere wish but coincided with the collapsing business culture, Fed and Big Bank Fraud and US’ lust for power overseas.
If we correlate the onset of “Arab Spring” with the collapse of the American economy, there is no doubt left that the entire uprising in the Arab world is a series of staged and managed protests conveying to the world that the Arab world is striving for democracy, intending to end dictatorial regimes lasting half centuries.
A legitimate claim if it were true, but the outcome proved many wrongs. The alternatives who replaced those regimes were hard core radical Islamists who created much more havoc and sectarian violence, killing more people than those regimes did for the last fifty years. The idea of promoting political Islam was meticulously planned to ensure fighting amongst ethnic and religious groups. By doing so, the regions remained unstable and anarchy prevailed - setting the stage for foreign intervention under new pretexts.
According to Alex Fisherman, an author and political analyst, in his op-ed published by Y.netnews.com on 06.12.13(http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4391453,00.html) “Let them kill themselves quietly”, he stated that: “we shouldn`t give the Arab a reason to unite around their only denominator hatred towards Israel”. He argued that there was no need for ground intervention since the Arabs were killing each other slowly and destroying everything without losing a military shoe on the ground. He stated, “Every day, some 400-500 people are killed in the countries surrounding us. In Libya, the tribes and militias are slaughtering each other. There, bodies are no longer being counted. Tunisia's big cities enter a state of curfew every evening. Tunisian soldiers are killed while fighting Salafis on the border with Algeria. Iraq is already divided into three, and the civil war is resuming there in full force.”
This serves the plan laid down by Oded Yinon in Feb. 1982 : Zionist plan for ME, Strategy for Israel in the 1980s (http://cosmos.ucc.ie/cs1064/jabowen/IPSC/articles/article0005345.html) which should be an eye opener for those riding on democratic values and accusing Arab regimes of being totalitarian, although they are right, but the way to change them or replace them was planned externally and executed by internal players, not upholding the human rights values and freedom.
What is the US is doing in the Middle East:
Facts:
Double Standards policy: Fighting al Qaeda in Mali while supporting it in Syria: France the new dancer to American drums.
Partners in promoting American democracy in the region: Saudi Arabia and Qatar (GCC): Look who is talking?
Supporting MB in Syria, fighting them in Egypt.
Selling Arms /missiles/jet fighters.
Setting up Nuclear plants.
Nourishing Extremism and Radicalism.
Making a case for military intervention.
Test for personal strength of Supremacy.
New ground for testing new missiles.
Objectives:
“The war is our resources in the Arab world”
Removal of President Bashar Alassad.
Changing the trajectory of the war in Syria in favor of Al-Nusra fronts and its wings. So Syria will head into chaos and the massacre against minorities with the growing influence of Al Qaeda and Syria becomes a new hub for terrorism. This will prompt the international community to support France and US in occupying Syria, so there will be a repeat of mandate, a century ago, that divided Syria and led to the exodus of its inhabitants leading to another suffering.
Having failed to have any liberated area under the full control of the rebels, by weakening the Syrian regime, they will ensure a bargain chip at Geneva 2.
In fact the military plan is to weaken the Syrian government forces surrounding the two main metropolitan cities Damascus and Aleppo, and then push trained mercenaries into these two cities for ethnic cleansing. Then they would declare a ceasefire and negotiate after ensuring that Syria is divided into three parts at least, similar to Iraq.
Then they take on Egypt to re divide the Arab World by a new Sykes –Picot 2 with American flavor .
Conclusion
What is the endgame? Still a question mark but chances are that the US will disarm Syria under the watchful eyes of the UN. Then it will take on the likes of Iraq and Libya.
The possible scenarios are assurances from Russia to go to Geneva after Damascus agrees to destroy its chemical weapons and sign the chemical weapons ban treaty. This will take a long time, may be even a decade, a cost of a billion dollars, while Syria cannot be kept bleeding. The talk of assurances from USA not to attack Syria, Iran or HZ is also on the table.
There will be no peace in the Middle East without settling the Palestinian cause and ending Israeli occupation, returning of Syrian Golan, Lebanese Shebaa farms and a birth of a Palestine state along with Israel. So the US foreign policy in the region will not be Israeli centric and will have to determine as to where its real interests lies in a stable region, not by disseminating radicalism and extremism.
There is no endgame as long as controlling resources and hegemony by warmongering nations is based on short roads through wars.
Dr.Waiel Awwad is a senior international correspondent based in South Asia. The views expressed are personal.