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The passing of Nelson Mandela provides a moment to reflect on the geopolitics of a continent in which the post-apartheid leader will always be revered as a relentless champion of democracy, human rights and the unfinished struggle for independence.
He was the scion of a royal family, a lawyer, activist, guerrilla leader, a prisoner on the infamous Robben Island and eventually a president who sought to create a South African identity that transcended race. Mandela's lifelong struggle was one against the imperatives of geopolitics.
In many ways, Mandela, who died at 95 years of age, was exceptional among Africa's rulers. He defied the self-enrichment that has characterized many of the continent's leaders since independence, from the Republic of the Congo's (formerly Zaire's) Mobutu Sese Seko to Angola's Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Self-enrichment is rife within the African National Congress, and though Mandela certainly used that to his benefit, he became only modestly wealthy.
He also fought the reflex so common in other regions of post-colonial Africa by stepping down from a single term in office in 1999. Even those leaders who have come close to his stature on the world stage -- Ghana's Kwame Nkrumah or Senegal's Leopold Senghor, for example -- surrendered power only when forced to do so. Among Mandela's many legacies is his successful transition from guerrilla commander to true president.
In particular, he acknowledged and sought to effectively manage the geopolitical limitations of South Africa. It is a country of awash in riches, but the markets for virtually all its products lay beyond its shores -- in the West for its diamonds, gold and other mineral resources, and increasingly in the East for its coal, oil and natural gas. But the country was starved for capital when Mandela took over. It badly needed foreign buyers for its industry, mining sector and transportation infrastructure. Under Mandela's administration, South Africa re-opened to the world and saw the recovery of significant and diverse foreign investment.
Mandela did not nationalize industries or drive away foreign investors, despite some populist expectations to the contrary. Mandela understood that South Africa was emerging from pariah status and that its economy was isolated and subject to international sanctions. Nationalizing the South African economy would have driven away exactly what the country needed: fresh economic confidence. Industry needed rehabilitation, and to achieve the economic goals of the impoverished black majority, Mandela needed to assure domestic and foreign investors that their positions would be forever protected. Mandela and his administration took great pains to assure these economic provisions.
Mandela knew that he had the political mandate to reshape his country. But he also understood the country's geopolitical limitations. He did not try to erase the colonial institutions that preceded his rule but instead sought to entrench systems that would enable good governance. He did not nationalize industries or drive out foreign investment but instead trod a careful path that has helped South Africa to grow and evolve, if not yet fully thrive, as a multiracial democracy. For all his popularity, Mandela knew that his country could not afford to be a pariah and that foreign investment would be vital to its economic success.
Mandela's life and story are testament to the spirit of courage and endurance in the face of geopolitical imperative. They are also, however, a cautionary tale of the limits of human agency and the power of geography.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)