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The memorial for Nelson Mandela in Soweto, South Africa, on Dec. 10 will feature the largest gathering of international dignitaries and heads of state in recent times. The funeral arrangements for the former president are of an unprecedented scale for South Africa -- which hosted the World Cup in 2010 -- and are widely anticipated to equal the funeral of Pope John Paul II in 2005.
While sudden, Nelson Mandela's death was not entirely unexpected. His advancing years and increasingly poor health will have enabled the South African government to anticipate the likelihood, if not the exact date, of his death. Such preemption will have allowed for much of the planning for the funeral to take place in advance.
This will prove critical given the logistics of providing security and protection for the biggest gathering of world leadership outside of the United Nations. With the attendance of U.S. President Barack Obama confirmed, the United States will play a critical role in overseeing and coordinating the assembled security apparatus.
Five days after his death, Nelson Mandela's memorial service will be held in the First National Bank Stadium, located in Nasrec, near Johannesburg's Soweto township. The stadium, also know as Soccer City, has a capacity of almost 95,000 and will be the epicenter of an exhaustive security operation.
As well as the current president of the United States, all former living presidents with the exception of George H.W. Bush will be in attendance, along with 26 members of Congress. International leaders in attendance will also include, among many others, the presidents and prime ministers of Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, India, Afghanistan, Brazil, Australia, Namibia, Denmark and Cuba.
Like Obama, many of the other heads of state will be accompanied by their predecessors -- in particular by leaders who were in power during the time of Mandela's presidency. The stadium will also play host to numerous representatives of royal families, captains of industry, religious leaders and celebrities.
Soccer City, where Mandela made his final public appearance in 2010, will be full to capacity, with three other stadiums acting as overflow in nearby Orlando, Dobsonville and Rand. In addition to three giant screens set up at the overspill locations, 90 separate screens across the country will show the memorial as flags are lowered and books of condolence circulated.
Scheduled to begin at 11 a.m., the memorial will feature a host of speakers, including President Obama, with a keynote address by South African President Jacob Zuma. Also speaking will be U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao, Cuban President Raul Castro, and members of Mandela's family.
The day following the memorial, Dec. 11, Mandela's remains will be moved by gun carriage along a processionary route from Pretoria Central Prison to the Union Buildings, the seat of the South African government and home of the presidency, where his body will lie in state until Dec. 14. The final leg of the journey will see Mandela moved to Waterkloof Air Base and flown to his birthplace of Qunu in the south, where his state funeral will take place on Dec. 15.
The Security Challenges
While the South African authorities will have anticipated the occurrence of Mandela's funeral, the presence of so many world leaders, most notably the president of the United States, adds a significant dynamic to their planning considerations.
Although the host government carries overall responsibility for the protection of the visiting heads of state and other important figures, the U.S. Secret Service will play a critical role in security logistics, guidance, resources, and special event oversight and management, working in concert with other visiting foreign protective units.
The challenges involved with managing and coordinating the movement and protection of so many high-profile dignitaries are remarkable. The security apparatus surrounding the U.S. president alone is among the most extensive and proficient in the world -- there is no other position that carries the same depth and breadth of security. The capability, reach and scale of the Secret Service ensure that it will play a leading role, in conjunction with South African security services, in providing security at the memorial.
While South Africa has hosted large events before -- and Obama visited the country in June -- there are a number of areas in which South African security services lack the capability or experience of their U.S. counterparts. By virtue of overseeing security for the United Nations in New York City, the Secret Service has learned to effectively manage large numbers of very important people.
They have also become adept in coordinating and liaising with the organic protective infrastructure of other countries. Every head of state has their own protective detail, and the Secret Service must work with, manage and at times guide these elements. That experience will be useful now in South Africa, as resources are likely to be pooled during the memorial.
The U.S. embassy and attache in Pretoria will have prepared for Mandela's funeral in advance, much the same as the South African government. Any presidential visit will have been carefully planned, rehearsed and war-gamed in advance. The likelihood of Obama attending Mandela's funeral is something that will have been anticipated for years.
The embassy, in conjunction with other assets, will have developed the latest intelligence, and it will serve as the nerve center for the American security operation, providing command, control, communications and intelligence infrastructure. The highly protected embassy is also a secure location and can house specialist assets as well as a quick reaction force that can respond in case of emergency.
A number of frameworks and protocols are applied for a presidential visit, or for a U.N. protective security task. These frameworks provide the outline plan, which is then adapted to a specific task and environment. When operating overseas, communication with the host government and security services is critical.
While South Africa has an established security capability, the United States brings extraordinary manpower, technology, unique intelligence abilities and -- most important -- the practical knowledge of running large-scale and complex events.
Liaison will be key, and South Africa will most likely welcome U.S. collaboration. The real issue for an event of this magnitude is logistics. The sheer number of people involved, from civilians to dignitaries to security forces, is astounding. The coordination required between countries, agencies, organizations and teams is significant. And then there is the practical aspect of moving some of the most important people on the planet from one location to another, safely and securely.
Practical Aspects
The threat against the president of the United States is serious and unrelenting, as are the myriad threats against many of those attending the memorial. These threats prevail irrespective of location, circumstance or ceremony.
Three days prior to the president's arrival, meetings in Washington and the U.S. Embassy in South Africa will have activated a complex and expansive security network. With all certainty, the South African visit will have been the number one intelligence collection priority for days, with agencies such as the CIA and NSA providing critical support and intelligence overwatch.
Pre-deployed teams will already have investigated every step that dignitaries are likely to take, from the minute they set foot on South African soil to the second they depart. The infrastructure required for such a visit is expansive. From having the physical space to accommodate Air Force One and ancillaries at the airport or airbase of disembarkation, to the logistics of ensuring the presidential motorcade is fuelled and ready to go, to the accommodation and feeding of all personnel, the organizational burden is notable.
Any individual in transit is inherently vulnerable; every route must be reconnoitered, vulnerable points and areas identified, counter-ambush and alternative-route drills rehearsed. Air assets will monitor the progress of the motorcade and provide overwatch while other ground teams will identify possible firing points and deny them.
Well before the day, large swathes of Johannesburg will have been cordoned off and access to vehicles strictly controlled. The damaged caused by a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device can be extensive, so vehicles will be cleared from key transit routes around the city. While groups of dignitaries may be moved using organized corridors and transport, the president will always move independently.
An umbrella of security will go up over the memorial. All routes, or chutes, both on the ground and in the air, will have been identified and cleared in advance -- South Africa is declaring a no-fly zone for commercial and private aircraft above Johannesburg and surrounding areas. Once cleared, they must remain secured (often by indigenous security forces on the ground) and monitored. It will be necessary to apply the principals of what the military calls battlespace management -- the coordination of all assets and agencies on the ground (or even below it) and in the air.
Any physical location will have to be thoroughly searched and then access-controlled and closely monitored. The United States will bring in specialist assets to assist with physical security. These assets may range from air or low-orbital surveillance, specialist electronic search equipment, working dogs and handlers, electronic countermeasures, counter-sniper teams and explosive ordnance disposal technicians.
Part of the Secret Service's role will be to advise and review host nation security forces in order to ensure the most effective coverage. The Secret Service will provide protective and specialist intelligence coordinators to ensure a smooth interface before, during and after the event. Elements of the Secret Service will physically secure hardpoints as required, and close protection specialists will safeguard the dignitaries themselves.
It is very hard to imagine the extent of the operation and the complexity, but it is a tried and tested formula designed specifically to insulate those most at risk from the greatest threats, whatever they might be.
Threat Assessment
The lack of indigenous armed or rebel groups in South Africa (or the southern part of the continent for that matter) reduces the threat of an attack by an organized terror cell -- though no threat can be eliminated entirely. While South Africa does have grassroots jihadists, their limited capability is largely negated by the presence of such heavy security. In addition to their native security, police and close protection forces, South Africa has alerted 11,000 members of its national defense force to assist with security operations for the Mandela funeral events.
As with the attacks in Boston, we have seen how independent actors can create terror and mass casualties with improvised explosives, but while such an attack would be catastrophic in terms of civilian casualties, it is unlikely to pose much legitimate threat to those being protected.
Given the comparatively little preparation time for any potential attacker, and the extremely high level of protection, a coordinated attack is unlikely. The window of opportunity also remains extremely small, with most dignitaries spending the shortest amount of time on the ground before returning to their home countries.
While an attack by a disgruntled, radicalized or mentally ill person or group is not impossible, one of the more probable -- and potentially harmful -- threats is that of crowd surge. There will be excessive numbers of people at each of the stadium locations, and still more lining the route of the funeral procession.
Although united in their grief over the loss of a figure such as Mandela, crowd dynamics are inherently unpredictable and the potential for a flash-point exists. Once in motion, a crowd surge or swell is virtually impossible to control without inciting a further violent reaction. Normally, the only recourse for a security detail is to immediately extract to a safe and secure location.
Human error is always a factor, especially when working with indigenous personnel who may not have the same level of training and preparation as Secret Service agents. Ways in which the security apparatus can fail, thereby providing an opportunity for an exploitative attack, include: lack of awareness and inquisitiveness, unprofessionalism, fatigue, setting patterns, and the realities and challenges of operating in a demanding environment.
The Secret Service will have conducted a threat assessment, incorporating the latest intelligence from all sources and agencies. They will factor this into their conduct and will have contingency plans for all eventualities.
While South Africa may seem like a potentially dangerous location, the protective security measures enforced by the Secret Service in conjunction with the host nation will be second to none. The government of South Africa is keen to show that is a capable stakeholder for an event of such importance.
Not only is South Africa in the international spotlight, its government is conscious of the fact that they are managing Mandela's legacy. They will not hesitate to lock down the city, or even the country, if they believe it is necessary in order to ensure the safety of foreign delegations present to bid farewell to the country's unparalleled hero.
While it impossible to eliminate all risk entirely, in the face of such an overwhelming security presence, it will be tremendously difficult for any group or individual to pull off an attack. Even then, any action will be quickly contained.
For the security services, the primary challenge will be the logistical enormity of marshaling huge amounts of manpower and materiel, the interoperability of different nations and the intelligence demands. The follow-up challenge will most likely be diplomatic and will require the careful handling and movement of dignitaries as well as tact and finesse.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)