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In the New Year, all the countries of South Asia seem to be in a state of flux and are experiencing some form of political instability. And people are awaiting change. In all the countries, there is a significant amount of human deprivation and glaring inequalities present. The entire region is undergoing a transitional phase in which people have become restless with the old order. People just want good governance, jobs and peace in their lives.
There have already been elections in Nepal and Bangladesh will hold its general elections probably in January 2014 and India in May 2014. Pakistan has a new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a man who is far from secure as he has inherited a lot of economic and political problems from the past. There may be a change of government in India in May 2014, but the endemic economic and social problems will remain. Unless the basic human problems are solved, there will be constant instability and call for regime change in all the countries which may take violent forms. A much more deep rooted malaise is thus present in all the countries which need to be addressed by people's participation and involvement. The participation of the middle class is essential and the process has begun in India. It also calls for greater regional cooperation and integration because together the countries can help solve the problems which are making the people of South Asia suffer.
The number one problem is the mounting corruption in all the countries of the region. People are fed up of the 'red tapeism', lack of transparency in business dealings and the corrupt going unpunished. According to the latest report of Transparency International, India is among the countries with a high degree of corruption. Among 177 countries, India's rank is 94th, Pakistan's 127th, Bangladesh's 136th and Nepal's 116th. All countries in the world have some degree of corruption, but in poor countries of South Asia, it takes a vulgar form as the corrupt flaunt their wealth. For almost every routine procedure, one has to be prepared to pay extra (often called speed money) which is hardly seen as graft. The disproportionate amount of wealth and five star lifestyles of politicians and bureaucrats have brought about a sea of discontent among the people in these countries. Yet nothing is being done to bring about a better system which can check corruption.
The second thing common in the region is its huge youth population. All the countries have a young population, except Sri Lanka. Nepal's youth population is at 38 per, Bangladesh 39 per cent, Pakistan at 48 per cent and India 38 per cent. Their aspirations have to be fulfilled in the future by providing them training, education and suitable jobs. Unless the governments can deliver on this front, there will be turmoil and problems in the future. The so-called demographic dividend could become a demographic liability. One reason for Narendra Modi's rising popularity is said to be the fact that he promises jobs to the youth.
The third daunting task before South Asian governments is to improve the Human Development Index and the new Multi-dimensional Poverty Index. The MPI is an alternative to income based poverty estimates that shows the proportion of the population living in 'multidimensional poverty'. Poverty index alone is not indicative of human suffering because as Amartya Sen argues, development is all about freeing people of the deprivation that stops them from living the life they would like to lead. About half of South Asia's poor is multi-dimensionally poor and 435 million of these 827 million poor are severely poor.
This index is high throughout South Asia and highest in Bangladesh ( 58%), Pakistan (49%) and Nepal (44%) and India 54%. The region has high MPI of 0.280 and Sub Saharan Africa has 0.360. The ten indicators for MPI are nutrition, child mortality, years of schooling and attendance, cooking fuel, water, sanitation, electricity, assets and floor covering. It indicates the quality of life and the intensity of poverty. In 2013, 1.6 billion people in the world were living in multi-dimensional poverty.
Fourth, the average overall life satisfaction of people as computed by Gallup World Poll for the South Asian region is rather low at 4.7 which makes it the second most dissatisfied region in the world after Sub Saharan Africa. When people are unhappy, they will be restless for change.
The fifth reason is that the region is prone to environmental hazards and disasters. Already many such disasters have taken place in the last one year like hurricanes, earthquakes, flash floods and droughts. These will increase unless there is concerted effort aimed at arresting global warming and related environmental phenomena. If these steps are not taken, according to the UNDP, South Asia's average Human Development Index achievements would fall by 22 per cent by 2050.
Sixth, there is a sizeable amount of migration taking place in South Asia. People are leaving their villages and migrating to towns and cities and often living in inhuman conditions-- in slums and shanty towns. They are also moving between neighboring countries. Nepali people move to India, and Indians move to Nepal. Similarly, Bangladesh and India are witnessing a lot of temporary and permanent migration. This is creating tension between countries and there are cross border killings on the Indian-Bangladesh border as well as on the India-Pakistan border. Migration from Sri Lanka to India has also been a big problem.
In addition, there is a substantial amount of smuggling going on between the countries in the region which could be converted into regular trade. This would bring revenue to the countries and also create employment.
Seventh, all the countries are experiencing inflation which is bringing hardship to the poor and people with fixed incomes. One reason why people in the state assembly elections voted against the Congress is the rising food prices which have shrunk the incomes of the poor and the lower middle classes for essential things of life like education, nutrition and health expenditure.
Eighth, there is likely to be much conflict over shared resources between the countries in the region — it could be water. Resource sharing has to be effectively resolved for bringing about peace in the region.
The governments of the South Asian countries can cooperate to solve many of the problems, especially poverty alleviation and fighting corruption. It will bring about stability and good governance. Otherwise, when are people dissatisfied with their lives, they blame the government at the centre and want to change it.
All the countries in the region are suffering from the same syndrome of discontent, yet they are not getting together to solve their mutual problems and are unable to bring peace and stability in the region. Higher GDP growth with opportunities for the youth employment and gender equity will be good for the region with a population of over 1.7 billion people.
By Special Arrangement with : Observer Research Foundation (www.orfonline.org)