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After several failed attempts to regain control over the portions of northeastern states seized by Boko Haram, the Nigerian military has finally started achieving results over the past two weeks.
Last week, Nigerian forces initiated military operations north of Maiduguri and north of Mubi. They first liberated towns along the main road to Baga, up to Monguno. Over the weekend, they captured Baga, where Boko Haram had taken control of a Nigerian military outpost and massacred the local population. This offensive push is the first major success since minor operations in northern Adamawa state last year.
But the operations have recovered only some Boko Haram terrain. So far, the operation has pushed Boko Haram forces out of population centers in a substantial portion of northern Borno state, the most recent area of expansion by the Islamist militant group. The group still controls a large part of Borno state along the mountainous Cameroonian border. It also controls areas of Sambisa Forest and parts of southern Yobe state.
These areas are likely next for Nigerian military operations. Airstrikes have already been launched against Boko Haram positions around Gwoza and Bama, near Cameroon's border. Military operations north of Maiduguri could defeat Boko Haram's attempt to establish territorial control and carve out its own caliphate. However, since August 2014, the group has been able to consistently expand its control over localities within northeastern states while withstanding disastrous offensives attempting to liberate areas and defend military positions.
The Nigerian military's current success stands in stark contrast with earlier efforts mostly because of new support. First, forces from Chad, Niger and Cameroon have assisted the Nigerian offensive on their respective sides of the border. The countries have increased efforts to close their borders to Boko Haram movement. Chad has even deployed forces to support Niger and Cameroon. This activity increases operational effectiveness inside Nigeria and prevents Boko Haram fighters from relocating to new sanctuaries. Niger has tried to cut Boko Haram off from its financial resources, reportedly bombing two separate convoys of Nigerien traders carrying smoked fish into Nigeria, where Boko Haram taxes traders or seizes their goods. Chadian troops have led some incursions into Nigeria, but always in proximity to the border. Assistance goes beyond Nigeria's immediate neighbors, too. Both the United States and France have supported the efforts in some capacity.
Courtesy :Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)