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Vietnam, India’s strategic partner in the east is facing the heat. Not that Vietnam has not seen much worse days, having fought years of war with the US, latter using every known weapon system at its disposal, gas, defoliants, napalm et all.
Vietnamese war memorials and the famed Cu Chi Tunnels (some 200 sq km inside which Vietnamese forces remained for seven years and undertook guerilla attacks on the Americans) are witness to the tremendous resilience of the Vietnamese people who eventually forced the US to withdraw its mauled military. Then was the 1979 war with China, with China aiming to ‘teach a lesson’ to Vietnam, capture territory and force Vietnam to withdraw her forces from Cambodia to relieve pressure on the Khmer Rouge – all of which China could not achieve, herself learning a lesson from this war to change her strategy of warfighting.
Tension has been brewing in Asia Pacific ever since China arbitrarily extended her EEZ and made territorial claims in adjoining seas based on her ‘9-dash line’. There has been confrontation with Japan, Vietnam and Philippines. In the recent past President Obama has given an assurance to Japan with regard to Senkaku islands. Philippines claims China has occupied and built structures on submerged banks, reefs and low tide elevations in the South China Sea and illegally claims that these are “islands” under international law – main bone of contention being the Mischief Reef, Scarborough Shoal. China also launched its ADIZ war that has led even South Korea to declare her own ADIZ.
With respect to Vietnam, this time it is no massive attack but more the tactics of a shark at sea, disguised as a sea wolf, circling its prey. The recent escalation began on 27 May when China shifted her oil rig Haiyang Shiyou in Vietnamese waters to a new location 23 nautical miles from its original location (also within Vietnam’s EEZ) where it had been deployed since 1st May. The attacks on Vietnamese Coast Guard vessels commenced next day onwards, asking them to leave Vietnamese waters in the East Sea. The tactics employed by Chinese forces are 2-3 ships surrounding individual Vietnamese fishery-cum-surveillance ships and continuously firing water cannons; a tactics that by itself has been causing injuries to Vietnam Coast Guard personnel. In addition, Chinese vessels have tried to ram Vietnamese vessels from multiple directions simultaneously, forcing them to move to avoid collision – all this with Chinese aircraft hovering overhead and even making low level intimidator passes over the Vietnamese vessel. At one point of time, two Chinese Coast Guard boats and many other Chinese vessels besieged four Vietnamese ships including two Coast Guard boats and again tried to ram Vietnamese vessels with Chinese planes hovering low overhead. Vietnam Coast Guard has displayed prudence, remaining calm in face of provocations. These Chinese tactics are being repeated in Vietnamese waters.
In the recent past, Chinese troops have resorted to similar intimidating tactics and even jostling with India troops during transgressions across the Sino-Indian border. This is in addition to inching forward to grab more and more territory through developing roads and tracks across the LAC. While an about ten kilometer long road had been built in the area of Pangong Tso through such silent creeping over the years, recent media reports indicating China constructing a road in Asaphila area of Arunachal Pradesh, if true, is presumably aimed at bringing the Indian airfield at Tuting within effective artillery range. But just as India has to contend with China on its own, Vietnam would have to do so as well. In the case of ASEAN countries it may not be a case of false alarm for long. If President Obama is advocating use of military force unilaterally if necessary, why would China remain behind when President Xi Jinping came to power vowing to restore the greatness China enjoyed for centuries, with the risk calculation matrix diminished in absence of any effective security structure in the region save US alliance with some countries (like Japan) and US Pivot Asia in limbo.
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel recently stated “In recent months China has undertaken destabilising, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea”, which has been pooh-poohed by Wang Guanzhong, Chinese Army’s Deputy Chief of Staff. China has so far been following the policy of ‘push and shove, till stonewalled’ but with increasing belligerence – a recipe that can lead to escalation of hostilities. While China’s maritime disputes with Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam have escalated, US and most observers don’t appear concerned about possibility of escalation but no one is sure about it either. Vietnam does not have the luxury of a US-Japan type of alliance though in a time of crisis, both Russia and US would be loathe to abandon Vietnam given Vietnam’s strategic location in East Asia and geopolitical realities, as indicated by supply of Russian submarines to Vietnam as well as US warming up to Vietnam. At the same time, China appears sanguine that her neighbours would not prefer to align with a weakening US and would not fight back either, China having effectively divided ASEAN with her economic clout over some members by simply buying out countries like Cambodia and Laos.
India-Vietnam strategic partnership is strong and includes defence. A MoU signed by Defence Ministers of both countries provides for cooperation in national defence, navy, air defence and military training. China's rise and assertiveness pose challenges for both India and Vietnam though not very similar. Economic and trade ties between India and Vietnam are on the upswing, India is likely to get more involved in developing Vietnam’s energy sector on a sustained basis especially since India has long been involved in developing Vietnam's oil and gas sector. However, China has signaled India not to develop Vietnam’s oil and gas blocks in areas contested by China, this even as China is continuing with numerous development projects in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir especially in Gilgit-Baltistan region, all of which legally belongs to India.
Vietnam has the option to follow the path taken by Philippines, latter having been forced to take the issue to the UN after exhausting all other options post China occupying the Mischief Reef in 1995. Through the UN, Philippines is seeking a legal award on the interpretation and application of UNCLOS; an injunction that Philippines is legally entitled to a maritime zone drawn from its baseline comprising a territorial sea, contiguous zone, EEZ and continental shelf, plus seeking a ruling that China's claim to the South China Sea based on its 9-dash line is unlawful. Philippines had to do so despite Chinese warnings that the issue should not be internationalised. Vietnam may have to follow suit. Both India and Vietnam seek to engage with China politically and economically, while seeking to maintain their autonomy in a multi-polar world. Hopefully, China will resort to resolving territorial disputes with her neighbours in peaceful manner that she propounds outwardly.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)