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Saudi Arabia's recent $1.5 billion grant to Pakistan re-affirms the depth of the relationship that the two countries share. It has also brought into focus their expanding defence ties and raised concerns about Pakistan's possible role in the Syrian civil war. The increasing proximity between the two countries is bound to impact Pakistan's relationship with Iran.
The grant to Pakistan was aimed at bolstering the country's sinking foreign currency reserves. It is expected to lift the reserves by about 18 per cent. Also, Saudi Arabia has reportedly agreed to purchase weapons from Pakistan. The kind of weapons has not been specified and Pakistan has denied that any arms purchased from it will be sent to Syria. In February, Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud accompanied by Foreign Minister visited Pakistan leading to speculation that Saudi Arabia wishes to expand its security ties with Pakistan. In the same month, a senior Pakistani intelligence official said that Saudi Arabia was looking for a large number of Pakistani troops to support its campaign along the Yemeni border and for internal security purposes.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have historically shared a close defence relationship. In 1979, during Iran's Islamic Revolution, 30,000 Pakistani soldiers were sent to Saudi Arabia. During the 1991 Gulf War, the Saudis employed thousands of Pakistani soldiers. Pakistani troops under Saudi command were also used to quell Shia uprisings in Bahrain in 2011. Pakistan's agreement to support the establishment of a 'transitional governing body' in Syria was reportedly an important aspect that led to the Saudi grant. This grant could be part of a secret deal wherein Pakistan will provide weapons for Syrian rebels. Pakistan's assurances that its weapons will not enter Syria remain questionable. Earlier, Pakistan has tried to remain neutral on the issue of Syria but in February of this year, it shifted its stance and asked Assad to step down.
Syria is a sensitive issue for Pakistan that requires a delicate balancing act. While the former backs the Sunni militant groups, Shia Iran supports the Assad regime. The change of stance on Syria may not be directly linked to its relationship with Saudi Arabia. However, there is speculation that the Saudis are pressuring the Pakistani Army to recruit and train volunteers to fight against the Syrian regime.
Meanwhile, the balancing act continues with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif travelling to Tehran to reassure Iran that his country will not play the role of Saudi Arabia's proxy in Syria. Pakistan has swung between Saudi Arabia and Iran often. The most recent example of this would be the pro-Iran Government under Asif Ali Zardari which took the Iranian gas pipeline project forward. During his recent visit to Iran, Prime Minister Sharif also convinced the Iranian Government to waive a $200 million per month penalty which had been stipulated in the pipeline agreement in the eventuality of a delay in construction.
The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Prime Minister Sharif during his visit that the border unrest between the two neighbours was part of an enemy conspiracy aimed at destabilising the Pakistan-Iran friendship. He hinted at Saudi involvement and specified that the US also played a role. Pakistan cannot afford to allow its relationship with Iran to sour especially since it shares a long border with the country.
Historically, Pakistan has tried to balance its relationship with Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. It is impractical to take sides in the Middle East. Pakistan benefits greatly from its friendship with both these countries and to side with one or the other would take away an important source of aid and support. But in recent times, the balance seems to be tipping in favour of the Saudis. This raises several questions. Is Saudi Arabia giving assurances to Pakistan that it will help the latter tide over its current economic crisis? In return for this aid, what does Saudi Arabia expect to receive from Pakistan? Will Pakistan manage to maintain a balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
By Special Arrangement with : Observer Research Foundation (www.orfonline.org)