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Three years ago when waves of protests and popular uprisings ousted despotic regimes in four countries of West Asia and North Africa, the Arab Spring was believed to have manifested beginnings of a political transition from the realms of autocratic and illiberal regimes into genuine emergence of democratic forms of government.
On May 29, former military chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, recorded a landslide victory with 96 percent of the votes -albeit in a low voter turnout, held over three days - to win the Presidency in Egypt. While, the June 3 `democratic’ elections returned incumbent President Bashar Al Assad to power for a third seven-year term in office despite a full blown civil war which started as protests against his rule.
A wave of such presidential elections is currently on in the region, touched by or in the sway of the Arab Spring- the people’s revolution which pulled down military dictators and autocratic leaders, who had ruled the states with an iron fist. In an attempt to set up democracy, where the populations will vote to elect the government, countries like Libya, Iraq and Algeria recently concluded the polls and Lebanon, Tunisia are likely to vote later in the year. The democratic process however appears to being used to sustain the power of dictatorships.
Mired in factional politics, lack of credible opposition leaders, weak or absent institutional structures, non state actors and external forces intensifying political violence resulting in increase in conflict, terrorism and rise of radicalized Islamic forces, these states threaten to reproduce authoritarian tendencies. The election outcome reflects that the revival of Arab Spring in its second phase appears to have reversed the momentum for democratic change. In fact Arab democracy has made little progress thus far in breaking patterns of leadership established during long decades of autocratic rule.
Egypt
After 18 days of protests in Tahrir Square which began in the name of `Bread, Freedom and Social Justice,’ the people’s revolution overthrew the 30 year autocratic regime of President Hosni Mubarak. In its first freely held democratic elections a year later, Mohamed Morsi from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's oldest and largest Islamist organization’s political arm- Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), became the first civilian president.
However, disillusioned with the broad power accorded to the presidency, widespread frustration with economic mismanagement, poor governance and concerns about the role of Islam as the basis of law, women's rights, freedoms of speech, Morsi was overthrown by the military (defense minister and leader of armed forces Abdul Fattah al-Sisi) after Egyptians stormed the streets once again. Since then, the Egyptian military has taken the controls of the politics and the economy, restoring much of the old regime place.
The democratically elected Brotherhood is now banned as a “terrorist organization.’ Since then Morsi and other top leaders of Brotherhood and over 16,000 supporters, have been detained by authority on varying charges between espionage, inciting murder to corruption. Another 529 members have been sentenced to death.
In a move reminiscent of the Mubarak era, prominent activists, liberal and leftists and other civil society members who are perceived as a threat to the regime, have also been rounded up and arrested. Wide-scale repression on freedom of speech and assembly continues. Protests, demonstrations and assembly- the most visual reminiscent of the Arab spring revolution, are now banned. Since Morsi’s ouster, more than 60 journalists have been put on trial for supporting terrorism and defaming Egypt. Sisi’s win as Egypt’s new elected leader by popular mandate may be convincing however the chances of an inclusive democratic system taking root in Egypt appear bleak.
The Egyptian road to democracy, which till now has seen fall of two Presidents, two Presidential elections, a new constitution, polls for both parliament and the Shura Council [upper house], and three referendums is once again hijacked by the military which is not ready to part with power to civilians yet.
Syria
In Syria, pushing aside the Geneva 2 talks aiming for transitional government, President Bashar Al Assad is renewing his legitimacy as a President for a third term, even as the country ravages in a full blown civil war. The three year long conflict which has since resulted in death toll of over 162,000 and displaced another 2.8 million, began as street protests in 2011 demanding freedom from the autocratic rule of Assad family in power since 1963.
Even while neighboring dictatorial regimes fell in the grip of Arab Spring, Assad managed to survive and hold the ruling power largely due to the divided Syrian opposition including Jihadi extremists and foreign rebels --who failed to gather a clear support or credibility, as an alternate form of leadership. Shifting alliances and infighting among opposition factions has also fragmented Syria: government forces, rebels with the ethnic Kurdish minority, rebels with the extremist Islamist group ISIS, and the mainline rebel opposition. The presence of Al Qaeda offshoots and foreign militia fighters from 36 countries in Europe and Asia, who are influenced to establish Sharia, has strengthened Assad’s role to fight terrorism and prevent Syria’s secular fabric from Islamisation.
In its bid to foster `democracy’, a new constitution was approved in February 2012 which introduced multi party system and multiple candidates to stand for elections, as against the previously held referendum on a single candidate. In the earlier referendums Assad received a yes vote 97.62 percent in a reported turnout of 96 percent in 2007 and of 99 per cent in 2000.
Most of the western countries have termed the elections a farce and the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the process `incompatible’ with peace talks which seek political transition in Syria. The government in Damascus however has said the election polls offer the political solution.
Future of democracy
The authoritarian restoration in Egypt and Syria by these elections marks the beginning of Arab Spring 2.0, wherein populations rekindled with uprisings are likely to continue their quest for democracy, even when the Presidency is cloaked in military garb. Both Sisi and Assad will have challenges to herald their new leadership in face of a fractured society and economic reconstruction along with the mounting sectarian violence, with renewed aspirations for an inclusive and liberal democratic system.
In a paradoxical and controversial essay titled `D emocracy in the Middle East’ written by Sisi during his time in US War College in 2006, the former head of Egypt’s armed forces, argues that changing the political system from autocratic to democratic rule is not enough to build a new democracy and it will take time for people and nations systems to adjust to the new form of government. ``The most important action to consider is to allow it to emerge. It may not be the same brand or shape as western democracy but it will be a start.’’
With the legitimacy imposed by the election outcome whether the new elected military leaders like Sisi and Assad will allow democracy to blossom or gravitate towards the old tested autocracy remains uncertain.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)