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Conclusion of USD 400 billion gas deal between Russia and China and lifting of the arms embargo by Russia against Pakistan are two significant events that may alter the future trajectory of geopolitics. Ukraine crisis is pushing Russia towards China and quagmire in South China Sea and confrontation with the US and its allies in Asia Pacific is pushing China towards Russia.
Can coming together of Russia and China be called the rise and the resurgence of “Eurasian power”? Mackinder had said, “Whoever rules East Europe commands the Heartland; whoever rules the heartland commands the World-Island; whoever rules the World-Island commands the World[1]”. Has the US pushed China and Russia too hard to make Mackinder’s philosophy a reality? Difficult to say, but what is significant is that these two events will certainly impact India in the years ahead.
There is a case to examine how India is likely to get impacted by these turn of events. In the first instance, China and Russia are compelled to be strategic partners because of the geostrategic turn of events. Ukraine crisis was an outcome of Russian encirclement by US led allies. Russia had the option to allow Ukraine to spiral out of its influence or to make Ukraine pay the cost of allowing US to come closer to Russian borders.
Perhaps the best option for Russia was to flex its muscle and re-unite Crimea with Russia, thereby retaining control over the Black Sea and denying access to US into Russian vital strategic space. US has Ukraine as leverage and Russia has Crimea, and oil and gas supply to European nations as leverage. The calibrated response of Russia was not expected by the US and its allies. US has not been able enforce complete economic sanctions against Russia, since Europe, especially Germany and France cannot afford to say no to Russian gas in the absence of reliable and cheap availability of gas.
However, US and its allies are in the process of exploring alternative energy supply to Western Europe. Sooner or later oil and gas import from Russia may be restricted and in that eventuality Russia will find it hard to find buyers for its gas. To ensure that the Russian economy is not derailed by this sudden turn of event, Russia and China seized this opportunity and clinched the deal. Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at the People's University of China said “Good news for both countries”[2]. It will serve both nations and will turn out to be a perfect marriage of convenience. Even if the economic sanctions are imposed, it is unlikely to cripple the Russian economy in totality.
At the same time Russia and China have sent a message that the world is multipolar and US cannot arm twist either Russia or China. It also suggests that first round between Russia and US has been a draw. Russia got Crimea and US got Ukraine. But Crimea without Ukraine is like a body without life, since Crimea is dependent upon Ukraine for water, energy resources and electricity. Similarly, Ukraine without Russian oil and gas is an empty vessel. No matter what happens in Ukraine, Russia has managed to regain control over the Crimea and Black Sea but had to part ways with Ukraine.
What is the fallout of Russia and China gas deal for India? Russia now has a big stake in China and vice versa. The biggest gainer in this standoff has been China; it has got an ally and abundance of gas at an affordable price for a prolonged period. As a result, Russia is unlikely to act as leverage for India in future, should there be a strategic standoff between India and China. Indo-Russian relations will now have less of the earlier historical commitment and ideology as all-weather friends.
India may not be too happy about the lifting arms embargo with Pakistan. There are two reasons; first is that the drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan will reduce the strategic significance of Pakistan to US and therefore, yearly dole from US may not be coming forth at the same rate. China is likely to act as a facilitator for sale of weapons and equipment to Pakistan in return for building bridges with Afghanistan.
At the same time it will also assist China and Russia to push US out of the region. Though it may be a far fetched dream, but there may be no harm in making a beginning, since US is encircling China from East and Russia from the West. US strategy of using GWOT was an alibi to gain access through Afghanistan to CAR, may be jointly blocked by Russia, China and even by Pakistan if US stops military aid to Pakistan.
India will have to take a relook at the options available to it in the changed security environment:-
· Maintain issue based cooperation and diluted strategic partnership with Russia.
· Turn to US as its business and strategic partner.
· It is significant to build capabilities because leverages rarely come from vulnerabilities. India has geostrategic disposition, economic potential and reasonable comprehensive national power to be a regional player. Emphasis should be to make India relevant and a pivot for regional and extra regional players to ensure that no business can be done in IOR without India’s support. Therefore, this is the right time to look at the long term view of these developments and lay down a trajectory for reshaping the strategy for the future.
India cannot be sentimental about both these events, rather it is a realist world and a reminder to what Chanakya had said, “There is some self-interest behind every friendship. There is no friendship without self-interest”. This is a bitter truth and India has to work in an environment which is fast becoming self-serving and a confirmation of the fact that strategic national interests are supreme.
The larger question is should India get worried or should India use it as a reference point for the future trajectory of Indo- Russian relations? Russia was and may continue to be a strategic partner but it is doubtful that it could act as leverage for India to fill military and diplomatic vacuum during crisis. It is also true that long term economic and geopolitical interests cannot be sustained on principles and historical commitments only, economics has now become a rallying point for future alliances and partnerships.
The maxim that, “there are no eternal allies, no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow” is truly the mantra for the future trajectory of alliances and cooperation. It is also pertinent that ethics and morality cannot be attached with the strategic national interests. Taking the moral high ground on vital strategic national interests is a sign of helplessness and unwillingness to take risks. The time has come for India to emerge from the shadow or the three big players and be counted as a pivotal force in the subcontinent and IOR.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)