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The causes of war are generally attributed to territory, power, religion, genocide, retaliation against major terror attack, regime change, clash of civilizations, racism, revenge, resources, energy, so on and so forth. The raging conflicts in the Middle East on one hand are being described as the age old Shia-Sunni divide fuelled afresh, while others ascribe it to war between radical Islam versus secularists or democracies albeit of various shades. Many argue that in countries like Iraq and Syria, it is the Shia / Alawite minority that is ruling over the Sunni majority population.
While this may be true in the case of Iraq, the take of the Syrian government is that not only their Defence Minister, Home Minister and Foreign Minister are Sunnis, there is also a fair sprinkling of Sunnis in government departments, administration and the military. That is perhaps the reason that the Syrian government has not capitulated despite three years of intense pressure. So then who are the believers, disbelievers, non-believers, atheists in such agnostic wars? No doubt that a country like Saudi Arabia does fund terror globally other than funding US politicians and even seeks a Global Islamic Sunni Caliphate despite close links with the US but then Saudi Arabia is hardly a global player in the upper category beyond this. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has patronized Pakistan completely to the extent of even recently providing a not to be repaid grant of a whopping $1.5 billion. Not that repayment in kind has not been on with the ISI linked Pakistan Taliban fighting along with Saudi backed terrorist groups in Syria to topple the Syrian Government – minimum 5,000 Pakistan Taliban as of now, as per the Syrian Ambassador at New Delhi.
But behind the regional level mayhem that we are witness to are the real global players whose ultimate grand designs are perhaps even beyond comprehension of the proxies and radical forces that they are so skillfully maneuvering, while countries and populations get scorched in the crossfire, Iraq and Syria being just two examples. So, would it be fair to say that the top level global players who are behind such agnostic wars are the real atheists since they are immune to the killings, death and destruction of scores of millions of population in pursuit of comprehensive global supremacy; geopolitical, strategic and economic gains all included. It is common knowledge that the US wanted intervention into Syria more than three years back for multiple reasons including blocking the Iran-Syria-Iraq-Europe oil pipeline that conflicted with the Qatari pipeline. The intervention by no means was meant to be an invasion like was done in Iraq and Afghanistan but through a combination of information warfare, Intelligence agencies, proxies mixed with Special Forces (as required) and air strikes applied in the last stages. Hence a refugee problem of strategic proportions was created by pumping in terrorists in large numbers through the porous Turkey-Syria and Jordan-Iran borders. The stated fear of the US was Syrian chemical weapons but bombings could not have targeted chemical facilities due to collateral damage. So, strikes could have targeted Syrian command and control centres to facilitate troops and proxies crossing over from the Jordan-Syria border.
Paul Joseph Watson, Editor of PrisonPlanet wrote in December 2011 that just as Al-Qaeda terrorists were used to oust Gaddafi, hundreds of Libyan rebels with Al Qaeda willing members were being airlifted into Syria to aid opposition in carrying out attacks against government forces. This by no means was a new concept. During World War II, the US Office of Strategic Services (OSS) had utilized members of a German dissident group who had fled to France as refugees for unconventional operations against the German Army in conjunction OSS. More significantly, in October 2012, Mitt Romney, US Presidential candidate had openly vowed to arm Al Qaeda in Syria. Later, as Obama was contemplating air strikes on Syria, American bloggers were asking if US wanted to act as the Air Force of Al Qaeda. John Pilger in his article titled ‘In Ukraine, the US is Dragging Us Towards War with Russia’, dated 14 May 2014 published in ‘The News’ wrote, “Every year the American historian William Blum publishes his ‘updated summary of the record of US foreign policy’ which shows that, since 1945, the US has tried to overthrow more than 50 governments, many of them democratically elected; grossly interfered in elections in 30 countries; bombed the civilian populations of 30 countries; used chemical and biological weapons; and attempted to assassinate foreign leaders”. He adds, “In many cases Britain has been a collaborator”.
So where does all this lead to? To start with agnostic wars by the top global players are unlikely to end. The US-NATO aims would definitely include limiting Chinese and Russian influence in the Middle East and the African continent, as much possible. Besides, keeping the Middle East afire would help delay terror backlash in mainland US especially if powerful proxies remain drunk on their conquests and increased areas of influence. All that is needed is to keep stoking the fires while keeping the oil flow regulated, and keep own national interests in focus. Already armed US drones are flying over the region. Gary C Gambill, fellow at Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum writes, “With Iran and various rival Sunni states financing and equipping opposing Islamists to do their dirty work (you don't bring a knife to a gunfight), the Syria-Iraq theatre is an extraordinarily target-rich environment. But as long as they're busy killing each other, the United States should leave bad enough alone”.
The bottom line is that ISIS-Al Qaeda combine presently is in direct conflict with the Shia Crescent extending from Lebanon, through Syria and to the borders of Afghanistan but the higher level agnostic war targets Iran directly and aims at limiting Chinese influence in the region, particularly over the Persian Gulf. To that end it is unlikely that the Af-Pak region will remain unaffected from the conflict engulfing Iraq and Syria especially once the US-NATO forces pullout from Afghanistan. That should be of serious concern to India.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)