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Last week’s headlines, about the downing of the Malaysian airliner with nearly 300 people on board over the Donetsk region on 17 July 2014, is a tragedy both avoidable and yet, paradoxically, given the circumstances of today’s geopolitical reality, and despite technological advances in all fields, inevitable.
The Mideast crisis in Gaza has been eclipsed by the downing of this passenger jet; with all signs pointing to the pro-Russian separatists or Russian forces on the Russian-Ukrainian border as the culprits -- although of course the Russians are blaming the Ukrainians.
The overwhelming odds are that MH17 was shot down by a Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile fired by the rebels (but supplied by the Russians). The rebels actually claimed to have shot down a government AN-26 in the general area of the MH17's demise. The social media claims in question have been retrospectively deleted, but in this age nothing is ever truly lost.
This was a tragic and murderous blunder rather than an intentional atrocity. That assessment in no way excuses the attack, nor the circumstances that led to the tragedy. Human lives, whether Ukrainian airmen or multinational civilians were unnecessarily destroyed……and therefore inexcusable.
Apart from the sheer horror of the senseless waste of human lives and the barbarity of a peaceful civil airliner being shot out of the sky, any commentary on this episode must necessarily examine different aspects, or at least raise questions, on a variety of issues.
Firstly, the most obvious questions relate to structural and organizational processes adopted by international and national civil aviation organizations : the relative responsibilities of national and international bodies dealing with civil aviation with regard to the rout(e)ing of civil aviation aircraft; the cognizance given by these authorities, and to aviation carriers themselves; to ongoing areas of conflict and turbulence, where these impact aircraft rout(e) ing or destinations.
One hears often about “travel advisories” being issued by governments, advising their nationals not to visit some or the other country or region affected by disturbances or conflict. Similarly mariners and aviators are also advised to avoid certain areas at certain times either due to notified problems or due to assessments that caution needs to be exercised in certain routes and destinations.
For civil aviation companies, a flight plan involves two safety-critical aspects: fuel calculation, to ensure that the aircraft can safely reach the destination, and compliance with air traffic control requirements. Aircraft flying in controlled airspace must follow predetermined routes (PDR) known as airways, even if such routes are not as economical as a more direct flight. Within these airways, aircraft must maintain flight levels, specified altitudes usually separated vertically by 1000 or 2000 feet, depending on the route being flown and the direction of travel.
The International Civil Aviation Organization, based in Montreal, warned governments, in April 2014, that there was "the possible existence of serious risks to the safety of international civil flights" over Ukraine. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration issued restrictions on flights over Crimea just south of MH17's route, and advised airlines flying over the rest of Ukraine to "exercise extreme caution due to the continuing potential for instability."
Korean Air and Asiana Airlines had already in Feb 2014 "stopped flying over Ukraine airspace ... because of security concerns."
On 14 June 2014 , a Ukrainian Air Force Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft ( as large as and similar to airline aircraft….not a small fighter aircraft) was shot down on approach to Luhansk International Airport; all 49 people on board died. On 14 July 2014, Ukrainian officials advised international pilots to not fly below 32,000 feet (9,800 m) over eastern Ukraine.
Aeroflot, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, Air India and others would, however, continue overflying eastern Ukraine until after MH17 was shot down. These airlines joined Malaysian Airways in their apathy, either due to organisational infirmities, or due to unnecessary risks being taken, perhaps to save fuel, or to avoid re-routeing headaches. Apparently the national governments, of these recalcitrant airlines, also did not bother to regulate their routeing over the conflict zone…..an obvious instance of official and structural apathy or indifference.
The second aspect relates to questions about to the ongoing power struggle in that region of the world which has been some time in the making…. the likelihood of solution and the possible outlines of any resolution of the ethnic, linguistic and historical problems that bedevil the people there. Any detailed analysis of the situation between Ukraine and Russia would require a thorough study of the basic and underlying aspects raised by the aspirations of “imagined communities” that realise nationalistic and pseudo-nationalistic structures ….and the “administrative constructs” that are utilized to retain such structures. That is beyond the scope of this piece, but certain facts are worth recounting.
Russia and Ukraine share a strained but very close relationship, their populations and economies being intertwined in multifarious ways and channels over decades and even centuries of interaction. The recent disturbances and political agitations in Ukraine are to some, not insignificant, extent the result of Russian intrigue, and instigated by Putin’s muscular view of Russia’s role in her immediate neighbourhood. NATO’s proximity has also exacerbated these relations.
The recent annexation of Crimea by Russia, while historically understandable, and even inevitable, has not helped soften Putin’s image in the West. It has however stoked ethnic and pseudo-nationalistic pro-Russian movements in the Donbas region (which covers, among other areas, the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetz Oblatz and Luhansk Oblatz.). These have erupted as a response to what is perceived there as a Western-aided pro-NATO government in Kiev. These movements are certainly armed and aided by Putin’s Russia. In all likelihood Russia’s calculations have been that a long-drawn out low-intensity campaign by their ethnic population in the region would, by a war of slow attrition, inevitably result in the Donbas region being ultimately annexed.
That calculation may however now be in some jeopardy. Given the presence of such a large contingent of Europeans on MH17, and the growing voicing of demands by Western governments for a free and fair enquiry, as also the increasing warnings by Western leaders to Putin and Russia, the threat of even more biting and targeted sanctions and possibly boycotts, the Kremlin will, for all its immediate and instinctive bluster and spin, have to reconsider its overt and covert participation in the fighting. It may also be forced to withdraw from arming and protecting the rebels.
Meanwhile, Kiev's determination to defeat the rebels will not only be strengthened, it is likely to be blessed by the West. It's not inconceivable that we will not only see Western defensive equipment being deployed, but also Western lethal weapons, and other forms of military aid.
Without Moscow's support, the insurgency cannot last for long. However that is not to suggest that the rebels will wither away…….they may be encouraged to fight even more bitterly.
Rear Admiral (retd) Sampath Pillai, a former CMD with Goa Shipyards Ltd, is a Defence Strategist.
The ICAO Council adopts standards and recommended practices concerning air navigation, its infrastructure, flight inspection, prevention of unlawful interference, and facilitation of border-crossing procedures for international civil aviation.
Passenger planes have rarely been attacked in both peacetime and war. Examples:
• In 1973, Israel shot down Libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114.
• In 1983, the Soviet Union shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007.
• In 1988, the United States shot down Iran Air Flight 655.
• In 2001, the Ukrainian Air Force accidentally shot down Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 during an exercise.
• In 2014, the pro-Russian insurgents in Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.