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Some of the challenges that China is facing in South Asia, particularly in dealing with Pakistan and with Afghanistan are outlined in an article by the Taliban spokesperson titled "Hidden Motives Behind Chinese Investment in Pakistan."
Essentially the message the Taliban are giving is that the Pakistani government, whom they're fighting, is willing to take money and then kill fellow Muslims in China.
It's the effort on the part of the Pakistani Taliban to counter the physical offensive that is taking place in north Waziristan that has really undermined the firepower, though they still have the capability to attack Chinese interests.
The Chinese and Pakistani governments have kind of a long, somewhat mixed relationship at times. At times they are allies, the Chinese seem to put a little pressure on Pakistan or back off from Pakistan depending on Chinese interests. We certainly saw in the last decade when there was assertions that Chinese militants were operating in Pakistani territory, that China was willing to put some extreme economic and political pressure on Pakistan. What's the status on their relations today, and how does Pakistan view their relation with China?
The Chinese have come to a point they're more comfortable with now because of what they see in Pakistani behavior. Definitely the Pakistani offensive into north Waziristan, and just overall the country attitude of the state toward militancy, has given the Chinese some hope that finally the Pakistanis are going to crack down on pretty much everyone, not just the enemies that fight them, but also the Uighurs. From the Pakistani point of view, China is the only sort of foreign ally they have, after the souring of relations with the United States. The hemorrhaging of those relations with the United States has stopped, but it's not really revived. They're looking at China as sort of the "all weather friend" and want to enhance on that. So they're going out of their way to assure the Chinese that yes, we are going to take care of the threat from groups like ETIM and other offshoots of Uighur jihadists. They need the help. They need the financial help to rebuild their economy. To what extent the Chinese are willing to do that remains to be seen.
Afghanistan, Pakistan. These are becoming more important in some ways to China. China has built a lot of its energy security, a lot of its future economic security, on these ideas of connections through Central Asia to Europe. The iron silk road, the energy corridor. These are not necessarily areas that are going to fully supply China with their needs or with their export, but what they do is they give China the ability to mitigate some of the risk they see in the maritime environment, where they feel particularly threatened in their extensive supply lines. The challenge for China, as they look at a place like Afghanistan, say, is that in the past, in many ways they could rely on the United States to keep Afghanistan relatively secure, to be responsible for maintaining security in Afghanistan. With the U.S. pulling out of Afghanistan and reducing its presence, the Chinese are having a very difficult time trying to figure out what is their foreign policy going to be in Afghanistan. Giving money to every different group in Afghanistan may or may not be terribly effective. They don't necessarily see a strong, centralized government emerging in Afghanistan. What are some of the options that we see China both pursuing and that they may have a greater capability with?
We've come to a point where China is going to definitely enhance its involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's not going to be sort of that informal relationship, and as you mentioned, relying on the United States is not an option anymore. So we're definitely going to see the Chinese step up, we've already seen both the new Afghan president and the Pakistani prime minister pay visits back to back to China and over the past two weeks. I think what the Chinese way of dealing with this whole land mass will be is they will continue to work with the Pakistanis, try to help as much as possible with their energy needs and power shortages and overall economy, but, at the end of the day, they can't just rely on Pakistan as the middle man to deal with Afghanistan. They're going to take a direct role in Afghanistan. In the past, it was more informal. I think it will be more formal as far as the government is concerned in Afghanistan. But they're also going to be dealing directly with the Taliban and those whom they can do business with, the reconcilable ones. But there are so many obstacles, the Taliban is fragmented, the Afghan stakeholders, the ones that are part of the state, their fragmented. So this is going to be a good juggling act for many years to come for the Chinese.
This is going to be a real test for the new emerging Chinese foreign policy, where they have to take a more active role in the places in which they're going. Where they can't sort of sit back and be passive. Afghanistan has swallowed empires before. What are the risks for the Chinese?
The Chinese know that very well. They are not oblivious to how it has become the "graveyard of empires." I don't see the Chinese going to that extent of following either the British, definitely not the Soviet, or even the American lead. I think they're going to have a much more hands-off approach. They're going to deal with political actors. They will also have to work with other parties that are interested in the future of Afghanistan, particularly the Iranians. They have a relationship with the Iranians that I think they will be able to leverage. India has a relationship with the same set of actors inside the Afghan government that the Chinese will be working with. So somehow, the Chinese will have to work with New Delhi on that, then maybe some stepping on each other's toes. And then, of course, the Central Asian "stans." Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. So they will have to work with them as well, and definitely the various ethnic communities, the rival factions. It's not just Taliban and anti-Taliban. The Afghan state is bifurcated. We have a president and a CEO. CEO because their constitution doesn’t allow for a formal prime minister. But the point is, you're dealing with a highly fragmented polity, if it can be called a polity. So the Chinese will have to work really hard. This is not something they have done before. It's going to be really interesting to watch this unfold as the years roll on.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)