.png)
.jpg)
The 13-year NATO combat mission in Afghanistan formally ended on Dec 28, 2014 with a ceremonial lowering of its green flag and a pledge by top officials of the US-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to partner Afghanistan in its unfinished war against the Afghan Taliban and other militant groups.
US General John Campbell, the ISAF commander, led the ceremony at the force's headquarters in Kabul, which was held at a basketball gym inside the headquarters, accompanied by a brass band and a colour guard. The base was on high alert in case of a Taliban attack; non-resident staff had been told to stay home and facilities inside the base such as shops and coffee bars had been closed.
With effect from Jan 1, 2015, General Campbell is now leading a new North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support mission, tasked to advise, train and assist the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The Taliban which saw its victory in this transition of NATO forces said, “We consider this step a clear indication of their defeat and disappointment.”
Earlier, US President Barack Obama in his Christmas Day address remarked that in just a few days’ time the US “combat” mission in Afghanistan will be over and that "Our longest war will come to a responsible end". However, some observers feel that the transition from combat to training and Counter Terrorism (CT) missions is a mere rebranding of the US military capability in Afghanistan; which though scaled down retains its potency as well as most tasks of its earlier mission. This article looks at the US military presence in Afghanistan in 2015.
Resolute Support
The end of the UN mandated NATO-led ISAF mission also saw the transition to a new NATO mission in Afghanistan, Operation Resolute Support, which commenced Jan 1, 2015. It is a two-year mission, with the primary function to advise, train and assist the ANSF. Twenty-eight NATO allies and 14 partner nations will contribute in different ways to Operation Resolute Support. The total number of international troops in Afghanistan, which peaked in 2009 at about 142,000, has gradually shrunk to about 17,000. Under Resolute Support, it is estimated that in 2015, about 12,500-13,500 NATO troops will be operating in Afghanistan, which includes about 5,000 US troops.
The legal framework for Operation Resolute Support is provided by a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which was signed in Kabul on Sep 30, 2014 by the newly inaugurated Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and NATO’s Senior Civilian Representative to Afghanistan, and later ratified by the Afghan parliament on Nov 27, 2014.
Freedom’s Sentinel
As President Obama had decreed, Operation Enduring Freedom’s combat mission in Afghanistan too came to an end and a new US training and advisory mission called Operation Freedom's Sentinel (OFS) has been launched in its place. According to US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, OFS includes two core components: working with NATO allies and partners on Resolute Support, and continuing “counterterrorism operations against the remnants of Al Qaeda to ensure that Afghanistan is never again used to stage attacks against our homeland.” OFS is the US mission in coordination with Operation Resolute Support. OFS has a separate “non-NATO” contingent of US forces which will participate in force protection, logistical support and CT activities. Officials said about 5,500 US troops will be part of this second contingent, which will be based in Kabul.
Rules of Engagement: 2015
It was understood that after the end of Operation Enduring Freedom, US troops in Afghanistan in 2015 will not conduct regular patrols or offensive missions against the Taliban and that they would restrict their operations to CT actions against the Al Qaeda. However, in November 2014, Obama decided to authorize a more expansive mission than the one he had declared in May for the military in Afghanistan in 2015, which included a broadened remit for CT missions.
The order, which was seen as extending the direct fighting role of US troops for at least another year, allowed the US military authority to carry out three actions in 2015; One, protect US troops and coalition partners; two, conduct CT operations against al Qaeda, the Haqqani network and other militants including the Afghan Taliban if it provided direct support to al Qaeda; three, provide close air support to ANSF in extremis.
The order therefore allows US forces to continue with offensive action against the Taliban and other militant groups, subject to them threatening US troops or the Afghan government. The new authorization also allows US airplanes and drones to support ANSF on combat missions and ground troops to occasionally accompany ANSF on operations against the Taliban.
The extension of the CT mission to include other groups was expected, given the emergence of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and the realignment of various smaller terror groups with them in Af-Pak. The point regarding attacking Taliban and other militant groups when threatening US troops is a mere reiteration of a principle inherent in most rules of engagement, but what the order does is that it extends the US protection to the Afghan government, permits joint operations where required and makes available the option to deploy US airpower in support of ANSF operations.
It terms of US capability in Afghanistan post 2014 it appears to only balance the reduced availability of combat resources by restricting the situations where they may be used. The order was seen by some analysts as a “rebranding” exercise, while some saw it as a move to effect due corrections after the lessons learnt from the rise of ISIS in Iraq.
Indian Perspective
Irrespective of the nomenclature and reduced numbers, India would welcome the continued active role of the US and its NATO allies in Afghanistan into 2015, as it provides the required breathing space to train key enablers such as pilots, medics, logisticians for the ANSF. This is a key task for which at the moment US-led NATO is best placed to carry out, given their operational familiarity with the ANSF. The alignment of the CT mission of the US troops with the emerging threats and ground realities is crucial for its effectiveness. Further, besides providing more staying power to the ANSF, the two missions will also provide more time to the fledgling national unity government in Kabul and to democracy in Afghanistan.
However, what India would be wary of is the influence of the current US policy towards Pakistan on these events in Afghanistan. There is a sense that the US is not seeing the Pakistani transgressions on the Durand line and those on its border with India in equal light.
Monish Gulati is Associate Director with the Society for Policy Studies.
By Special Arrangement with : South Asia Monitor (http://www.southasiamonitor.org)