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In 1994, at the height of genocide in Rwanda which killed over 800,000 in 100 days, the shocked international community vowed to not stay silent on the periphery as men, women and children were culled to death in one of the horrific crimes in the post world war II era.
The inability to act in time then led many world leaders to regret that they should have done more to stop the mass slaughter. In a turning point, the moral burden was translated into a doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) conceived to prevent mass atrocities through international intervention. Two decades since as images of bloodbath and destruction continue to pour, the war in Syria marks the collective failure of the international community in learning any lessons from the past history to protect humanity.
In March 2015, the uprising that took Syria into the throes of a civil war that has now turned into a Jihadist insurgency completes four years. The country stands divided today - the regime-held Syria with capital Damascus in the centre; Islamic State (IS) hanging between Syria and Iraq in the east; autonomous Kurdish region in the north and scattered parts held by rebels; and Al Qaeda officiate Jabhat al Nusrah in the west and south. Western powers continue to debate the best strategy to deal with Syria - to defeat ISIS which has grown into a monster with fangs to attack them; or remove President Bashar al Assad and risk taking the country further down in war. The discourse on Syria remains dominated with political analyst and strategist discussing the `hard’ military options to resolve the Syrian quagmire: from Turkey’s occupation of Syria to take down both Assad and ISIS, to tackling nuclear capable Iran’s growing influence with the regime forces which has become a dangerous trend that needs to be contained urgently. The multiple overlapping trajectories of ethnic and geo-sectarian fault-lines within Syria are currently being exploited by the Jihadist elements, local rebels and regional powers including Iran and Saudi Arabia, alongside Russia that has blocked all international efforts to depose Assad from power.
Syria is not Rwanda and external military intervention could unleash a much dangerous sequence of events inducing violence, insurgency, breakdown of law and order a la Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. The present circumstances in Syria though are not much different from this reality therefore an international intervention by means other than war should be considered.
Reaching out to Syrians: a dangerous proposition
An estimated 7.6 million Syrians are internally displaced, over 4 million have fled to the neighbouring countries and another 2 million have died. The cumulative figures estimate that half the population of Syrians have left their homes, cities stand devastated and those who still put up are suffering starvation, eating cats and boiling grass for survival. As residential neighbourhoods have turned into battle frontlines between rebel groups and the regime-led Syrian Army, supply of the very basics - food, water, medicines, baby food are increasingly erratic and almost negligible in some parts. In December 2014, the UN passed a resolution to allow humanitarian aid to reach civilians, however Damascus did not approve the proposal, as it believes opposition rebels use aid convoys are by the to transfer and supply arms and weapons. Out of Syria's 34 border crossings, only five are currently open for humanitarian convoys, nine are restricted and the remainder closed. Under such circumstances reaching the 12.2 million populations living inside Syria has become the biggest challenge. Of these the UN has declared around 4.8 million people living in areas that are `hard to reach’ for aid assistance. Governmental siege in areas like Yarmouk Camp and barrel bombs being dropped from regime helicopters (only the Syrian government has air power) in civilian neighbourhoods has made it dangerous for aid workers and civilians to supply and receive any aid. Daily attacks by barrel bombs have killed people waiting in queue for breads, sitting in buses and at water sources. Majority of these citizens who are Sunnis have become a target of the Assad regime in its strategy to cause Sunni emigration and change the demographics of Syria by making it ethnically Shia.
A home for Syrians
Most of the 3.9 million Syrians fleeing the horrors of war have taken refuge in the immediate neighbouring countries of Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, which are bearing the maximum brunt of this crisis. The World Food Programme has already suspended its food vouchers programme in these countries after it failed to secure funding of $64 million from the international community. In December 2014 the UN issued its largest ever humanitarian appeal of approximately $ 7 billion and till now has received US$ 1.18 billion. Six such appeals were made for funding from the international states since 2011 amounting to $6 billion. Only half of that amount was donated. India has so far pledged $ 2.5 million as humanitarian assistance and will revive its commitment in the Kuwait conference to be held next month. The absence of funding and resources to accommodate the large number of refugees has precipitated an illicit human smuggling economy. Many families fail to secure legal employment and food while young Syrian kids get picked up to work as cheap labourers often in sweetshops and as farm labourers.
Syrians who are trying to escape these severe conditions are making their way out of the region. Europe, specifically its southern countries, the closest gateway to safety for Syrians (undertaking a perilous journey through Libya and then to the coast of Italy by boats, which resulted in death of around 3000 in 2014) have shut their gates. The EU policy to ban the exodus from the conflict zones of Iraq and Syria reeks of hypocrisy as even though these countries stand united in their condemnation of atrocities and seek to end the carnage, their words fail to translate into constructive actions towards the Syrians surviving the war itself. So far of the 150,000 Syrians who have reached EU only 36,300 have been resettled. While western media portrays the horrors of war with a human face, the very countries have failed to come in the aid of Syrians.
Failed diplomacy
The UN and its Council of five permanent members – China, Russia, France, Britain and the US – have also failed to achieve any breakthrough in the status quo of the ongoing conflict. Almost every special envoy be it Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi or the current Stefan de Mistura have expressed sheer helplessness to halt the fighting and boost humanitarian assistance to Syrians. So far the UN initiated peace process including Geneva talks I (2012) and II (2014) seeking political transition in Syria failed to bring legitimate opposition and regime representatives on one table. The Russian attempt drowned even before it could reach the table and so did the ambitious plan of Mistura to bring local ceasefires. In the absence of a unified opposition which will lead Syria’s power transition; a post-Assad scenario remains unforeseen.
The US on the other hand has been stable in its continuous flip-flop on the Syria question from warning Assad of military action over the use of chemical weapons, arming moderate rebels and the latest being Secretary of State John Kerry’s statement on US’s willingness to negotiate with Assad which was soon rebuffed by his own department. The Free Syrian Army made of regime defectors lost its legitimacy as the US although pledged its support later refused to arm them, leading many rebels switching sides with the Islamic elements equipped with arms and ammunitions in a bid to do some real fighting. To salvage the situation, the US is now training a ground force in Syria by to fight ISIS. But given the small numbers of such defensive force as against the high numbers of ISIS fighters and regime forces supported by Iranian armed forces and Hezbollah, its military success already appears doubtful.
Even if in future, a military victory is scored against ISIS, a united Syria under Assad is unlikely. In the words of Syrians, `after 220,000 deaths and millions displaced, it is illusory to imagine that a majority of Syrians would accept to be ruled by the one who torments them. In the current realities a political, diplomatic solution to the crisis appears distant. But until such understanding is made, what can be done must be done: a collective international humanitarian effort to support and save Syria.
UN Special envoy Angelina Jolie has rightly pointed that the failure to end the crisis in Syria diminishes us all. Sadly the story of Syria seems to be going the same way as the Rwanda genocide which brought upon a realisation of `not again.’ On the fourth year anniversary held on March 11, activists undertook a burgeoning task of writing down the name of one million dead Syrians, victims of the war, a grim reminder that the world has once again failed to respond. May be 30 years later when the war will probably draw to an end, the story of Syria will be recounted with the names of these dead revoking the familiar `We should have done something to help Syria.’
By Special Arrangement with : The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in)