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In early June this year, Russia decided to lift its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan. By this Russia has sent the signal that it is opening up to negotiate with Pakistan to resume supplying military hardware to it - a clear violation of its gentleman’s agreement with India not to supply any arms to its troublesome neighbour. Questions will surely be arising on the logic or factors behind this sudden U-turn on Russia’s part.
Why is Moscow suddenly warming up to Islamabad, forgetting its age-old friend New Delhi? Or is it just a ‘bargaining tool’ in Russia’s diplomatic somersault to nudge India, which in recent years has been acquiring its arsenals from non-Russian nations that rival it in global armament supplies, to change its current defence procurement policy that Moscow finds is becoming unfavourable to it.
Or does an ‘arms embargo on Pakistan’ by Russia even exist in the first place? Because there is neither any Russian official document nor even any diplomatic communiqué reaffirming its so-called “self-imposed policy” i.e. banning arms supply to Pakistan.
Without dwelling much on the past of the Cold War era Moscow-Islamabad ties, it can be said safely that truly there didn’t exist any ‘strategic’ aspect via-a-vis defence in that. This can’t be given the colour of New Delhi’s complex sensitivities involved in helping to arm its sworn enemy – a virtual taboo for the Muscovites even to think of.
Russia could at best say a customary “Hello’ to Pakistani mandarins stationed in its Moscow embassy. Shaking hands without shaking India’s reposed faith in Moscow that come what may its “true friend” will never allow India’s own external security to be put at risk by arming Pakistan, even if such defence deals seem more profitable than the ones with India.
On its part, Pakistan has already got a flourishing joint defence R&D with China, and through it Pakistan has been augmenting its arsenal, which include FC-20, AL-31F, JF-17 Thunder fighter planes, at par with others.
China, which is a master expert in ‘reverse engineering’ (copy cats) to re-produce the ‘duplicate or fake’ version of the same, has been acquiring Russian armaments like Sukhoi-27, Sukhoi-30, Mig-29 etc powered by the legendary RD-33 engine. And in turn its ‘reverse engineered’ ‘Made in China’ fighter planes are sold to Pakistan.
Russia has strongly protested against violation of intellectual property rights (IPR), patents etc by China with impunity and threatened to halt all agreed defence sales to Beijing, unless it mends its ‘duplication’ trickery in the name of just doing ‘reverse engineering’!
What China, in turn conveyed to Russia is not clear, but most certainly it has sent the message to Pakistan that Islamabad can no longer rely upon just China-made military hardware which is quite inferior to the Russian ones in terms of quality cum agility and scouted for other ‘reliable sources’ to be armed with.
This is the main reason why Islamabad is suddenly warming up to Moscow and why Moscow, finding itself relegated to a secondary position in the current wish list of India’s arms procurement agenda, wants to use this ‘Pak-send’ opportunity as a warning to make New Delhi ‘redo’ its policy of gradually reducing Russian origin inventories in its arsenal by diversifying it with inventories from US, France, UK, Israel and Japan.
Russia is already upset with India over losing the fight in the race for the multi-billion defence deal, its biggest ever since independence, for acquiring the ‘best fit deal’ medium multi role combat aircraft (MMRCA). Russia was also one of the final contenders in the ambitious MMRCA deal, pitted against the EU, France and Sweden, but lost to France’s Rafael fighter jet, which is India’s final MMRCA choice. Russia has lost the deal in spite of using all its resources to lobby with New Delhi.
The loss of MMRCA deal to France has irked the Russian establishment, though India tried its best to persuade its all-weather ally. If that wasn’t enough, India’s decision to buy US armaments, like J-130 Super Hercules, Globemaster J-17, Pi-8 long range maritime reconnaissance jet etc have acted in the manner of rubbing salt on Russia’s wounded prestige over losing the MMRCA deal.
Moreover, India’s decision to buy US-made Apache fighter helicopters from Israel, negotiating for buying amphibious fighter aircraft from Japan – all these have been seen by Russia as India’s move to relegate Moscow from its earlier ‘first choice’ position to a ‘subordinating secondary’ position.
Hence, by announcing lifting of arms embargo on Pakistan, Russia wants to send a clear signal to India that if it can ‘redo’ its defence procurement policy, then Russia can also ‘rethink’ its global arms sale policy. A tit for tat!
Now, where does one proceed from this? Will Russia “really” resort to selling arms to Pakistan, setting aside India’s genuine security concerns?
Although Russia still thinks its ‘anti-Pakistan’ act during the 1971 India-Pakistan war, as a supporting war ally of India, is still cause of diplomatic embarrassment, but its move to sell Russian defence products to Pakistan is not a ‘new’ phenomenon, as is being led to believe by ‘misinformed’ opinions of some strategic pundits.
As Russia’s Ambassador to India, Alexander Kadakin said, “We have supplied arms to Pakistan since early 1960s. This (lifting arms embargo’) was a sheer case of misreporting and over-reacting”.
Notably, Russia had supplied Pakistan with Mi-17 civilian aircraft in the past, and the ongoing talks for selling Mi-35 Hind or Mi-28 Havoc attack helicopters were only in the initial stage. Incidentally, two of Russia’s biggest arms export wings, state-run Rosoboronexport as well as Rostec, have denied any move to resume selling combat/offensive military hardware to Pakistan.
Re-emphasizing Russia’s long-standing strategic ties with India, Kadakin has said that Moscow will not do anything detrimental to its deep ties with New Delhi, as a partner by its side in fighting anti-terror campaigns. Ironically, it was Rostec’s CEO Sergey Chemezov who while on his visit to New Delhi in early June this year, gave an ‘impression’ that Russia has lifted its self-imposed embargo on arms sale to Pakistan, but later denied that such an embargo was ever in place.
Both India and Russia enjoy mutual trust in their long-standing strategic relations and both are all-weather allies. There is an unofficial agreement existing on both sides that neither India nor Russia will ever resort to such things that are mutually considered by both as sounding the death knell to their deep ties of strategic engagement. India’s move to diversify its defence arsenal is guided by sheer professionalism, and Russia is mature enough to understand this, as a global arms dealer.
Moreover, today over 75% of India’s military hardware across the three wings i.e. army, navy and air force, are of Russian origin, and thus India will always be dependent on Russian supply of spare parts for keeping them operational. Regular up-gradation of weaponry has been done with Russian cooperation.
Pushing indigenization fast forward, both India and Russia are jointly manufacturing multi-role military transport helicopters, the fifth generation stealth fighter jet (PAKFA or Sukhoi T-50), Kudankulum II nuclear reactor, various defence and space projects etc. At various international forums like UN, WTO etc Russia and India always stand in mutual support on issues concerning them both. While Russia vetoed many anti-India UN resolutions, India also strongly opposed many anti-Russia proposals at UN.
Hence, the bottom-line – besides a ‘jubilant’ Pakistan and its ‘misinformed’ think-tanks’ ‘irrational exuberance’ over ‘Russia’s proposed arms sale’, nothing much should be read into a move which is denied by Russian arms exporters and its ambassador to India.
At best, Russia can sell non-lethal civilian products to Pakistan, as it did in the past, but strictly not any lethal military hardware (like Mi-35, Mi-28) to India’s arch enemy, as a ‘disillusioned’ Pakistani military establishment has been made to believe. The move is nothing but Russia’s ‘diplomatic manoeuver’ to make the new Indian dispensation under Prime Minister Modi agree to ink more defence deals cum joint manufacturing agreements with Moscow in future. Thus ensuring its predominant ‘first priority’ position in India’s global defence procurement-cum joint manufacturing deals, forever.
A foolish Pakistan could not decipher this ‘diplomatic teaser’ from Russia but an intelligent India can, because it knows well that while dealing with any regime in New Delhi, Moscow will have no other choice but to be solely guided by a proverbial ‘Hobson’s Choice’ – not to do anything threatening India’s own security - or the age-old Indo-Russian ties will cease to exist for good. This is the ‘real truth’ regarding “Russia’s proposed arms sale to Pakistan”. All else is mere ‘true lies’!
Sourabh Jyoti Sharma is a PhD research scholar at the Department of Political Science, Delhi University
By Special Arrangement with : South Asia Monitor (http://www.southasiamonitor.org)