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Kyodo News reported Aug. 3 that Japan intends to involve its armed forces in a plan to set up a space monitoring force by 2019 to improve the country's situational awareness in space. The Japan Self-Defense Forces reportedly will man and operate radar and optical facilities in Okayama prefecture by coordinating closely with Japan Space Forum's radar facility in Kagamino and telescopic facility in Ihara. In taking this step, Japan is continuing its long-standing effort to augment its space capabilities in order to deter and protect against the use of counter-space technologies, particularly by China.
Japan has been especially concerned about the Chinese development of anti-satellite capabilities ever since China began testing missiles capable of downing satellites. China's efforts culminated in a January 2007 anti-satellite missile test that hit a defunct Chinese weather satellite. This was the first known successful anti-satellite intercept test since 1985 and resulted in the largest space debris field in history -- a potential threat to other satellites.
China received significant international blowback from the test, and since then it has publicly diverted its efforts into the development of anti-ballistic missile capabilities, culminating in successful tests in January 2010, January 2013 and July 2014. China's anti-ballistic missile tests are directly applicable to the development of anti-satellite capabilities; they involve similar detection and tracking sensors and an "exoatmospheric kill vehicle" (basically a projectile that separates from a missile to knock out a satellite or other target beyond the Earth's atmosphere). As a result, the anti-ballistic missile program is widely believed to be a cover for either the development of kinetic anti-satellite technologies or, more likely, the development of both anti-satellite and anti-ballistic missile capabilities. Indeed, the 2007 anti-satellite test and the 2010 anti-ballistic missile test were carried out with essentially the same weapon: a modified DF-21 known as the SC-19. Continued testing along these lines is imperative for China to build credible and reliable anti-satellite capabilities.
Japan and the United States are aware of these development efforts and have begun stepping up their situational awareness and defenses to protect their significant constellations of satellites. For the most part, these efforts are publicly tailored to the tracking of hazardous space debris, but the same monitoring capabilities could serve to alert Tokyo and Washington to direct attacks on their satellites. In 2008, following China's kinetic anti-satellite test, Japan adopted its Basic Space Law regarding operations in space to allow for space defense and partnered with the United States in monitoring and tracking space debris that can hurt its space operations. In May 2014, Japan and the United States pledged to enhance cooperation in space defense-related matters. Japan has already benefited from this cooperation by gaining access to the United States' considerable tracking capabilities.
Japan's space efforts have remained entirely defensive, but it is not inconceivable that Japan could someday seek to develop its own space-related weaponry. Space programs often have dual purposes, and building situational awareness in space is the first step in finding targets to strike. In fact, Japan already maintains at least a theoretical anti-satellite capability based on SM-3 missile technology acquired from the United States. For now, however, budgetary considerations and Japan's own laws regarding the development and deployment of offensive weaponry restrict its options. In any case, Japan is more than happy to work closely with the United States in space in response to China's developing anti-satellite capabilities.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)