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The rise of ISIS and related events reflect the turmoil within Islam. There is the Islam versus the rest where the extremist believes Islam is in danger from the rest and violent jihad is the answer. There is a tussle between the tolerant and intolerant in Islam and the latter seems to be winning because he has the gun.
"Creative destruction is our middle name, within our own society and abroad.We tear down the old order everyday, from business to scientists, literature, architecture and cinema to politics and the law …. They must attack us in order to survive, just as we must destroy them to advance our historic mission."
Given the context of this article, a reader might presume that this is the kind of statement that might have emerged from the ISIS or some extremist terror outfit. He would be wrong, for these are the comments of Michael A Ledeen, one of America's influential ultraconservatives especially during the Iraq War. The quotation is from his The War Against the Terror Masters, 2002.
Shock and awe was made to happen in the 20th century and Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Pinochetand others were the main protagonists. We fail to talk enough about Dresden, Coventry, London, St Petersburg and Berlin or the British made Bengal famine during the Second World War to feed allied troops. Over 100,000 people were bombed to death in one night of US bombing of Tokyo on March 9, 1945. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were to follow. In all about70 Japanese cities were reduced to rubble. The Japanese themselves were not innocent either of their atrocities in Shanghai, Nanjing and Chongqing.
There are newer players in this game. Some of the methods have changed, but the goals - global domination - have not changed. Violence and brutality are far more visible, much sooner and the news and its effects travel globally in real time. Only with passage of time it got privatised and was no longer the monopoly of the powerful state. The Afghan jihad of the 1980s signified this change where an officially sponsored private jihad was unleashed. This ultimately led to the rise of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The same cycle was repeated in 2003 with the invasion of Iraq on false pretexts where not only was the dictator pulled down but also all the institutions that ran Iraq.
As a result, Iraq actually gotAl Qaeda and its surrogates after the US troops landed. What we see happening today in the region is quite a bit because of this misadventure. The ISIS is the next genie that has surfaced. This is not to justify the present day terror unleashed but to give some context to it. The 21st century is now more or less immune to such shocks and quickly finds terminology to ignore, underplay or exaggerate as the occasion demands.
The Arab Spring
It all started in 2011 with the Arab Spring when the Tunisians sowed the seeds with their Jasmine Revolution and Egypt promised a lot, but the Brotherhood was thrown out by the powerful Army. The West had cheered the Tahrir Revolution but suddenly found that the game was not being played according to their rules. The Brotherhood was not the part of their game so the rules had to be changed. Twitter heroes like Wael Ghonim (@ghonim) and scores of others suddenly disappeared. Attention was then on Syria where the Arab Spring was not happening and had to be engineered against an obdurate Bashar Assad but more importantly as a means to reduce the influence of a Shia and an ambitious Iran. The revolt against Assad led by generous assistance from external forces failed and the ISIS hijacked the movement. The Free Syrian Army had failed to deliver and Al Qaeda affiliates were fighting alongside these rebels. (It all started in 2011 with the Arab Spring when the Tunisians sowed the seeds with their Jasmine Revolution).
Enter the ISIS
The sudden and spectacular rise of the ISIS as a rival to the Al Qaeda, their brutal efficiency and zeal have led to some analysts seeking more answers about their rise and generous financial and material support beyond that which has come from the Saudis, Qataris and Turks. Some observers have questions about the sudden and spectacular rise of the ISIS - seems to be a part of shock and awe, reaction to what the Americans have attempted in keeping with their policy of control of the region, where OPEC versus US commercial strategic interests, CENTCOM forces with 20 bases in six countries in the region and now Islamic versus Christian interests overlap. Today, the ISIS has its wilayats in Libya, Algeria, Sinai, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It has a presence in the Khorasan province of Afghanistan and support from the TTP in Pakistan. Its soldiers look more like Special Forces troops than guerrilla fighters; ISIS is financially well endowed with funds coming in from local powers as well.
The rise of ISIS and related events reflect the turmoil within Islam. There is the Islam versus the rest (Christians, Jews, Hindus and their political ideals) where the extremist believes Islam is in danger from the rest and violent jihad is the answer. There is a tussle between the tolerant and intolerant in Islam and the latter seems to be winning because he has the gun. There is violent sectarian strife primarily between the Sunnis and the Shias. Add to this the ethnic and geopolitical interests of the players in the region and those from outside and we have a truly messy situation.
The age of intolerance
Tolerance is at dangerously low ebb in our societies all the way from Bangladesh through Pakistan, West Asia and on to Africa. Instead, intolerance and impatience is the signature tune of most. Something similar happened in Iraq and Syria with the actions of Iraq's Shia leaders and the rise of the ISIS. In Bangladesh, mobs killed an atheist recently; in Malda, West Bengal, the local government acquiesced to a fatwa banning women's football; in Pakistan the Blasphemy law reigns; Sunnis periodically kill Shias in what looks been killed while attending churches; Iran jails a woman for watching a soccer game; in Saudi Arabia a woman was gang-raped and has been punished with 200 lashes and a six month jail sentence and a blogger sentenced to 1,000 lashes for insulting Islam; the ISIS in Iraq and Syria have been killing Coptic Christians, immolating a Jordanian pilot, executing Japanese and other hostages. The destruction of ancient sites like Nimrud is reminiscent of what the Taliban did in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. Hatra and the Mosul Library in Iraq are some of the other historical sites that have been destroyed by the ISIS.
Narrative of political correctness
Political correctness has been carried to absurd limits and we are not able to describe what is happening in West Asia as acts of intolerance, brutality and violence perpetrated by some Muslims in the name of Islam. Barack Obama's unwillingness to describe West Asian atrocities as what they are, only hurts the interests of the moderates who wish for support to be able to stand up to these brutal people.
When President Obama said at a White House summit on countering 'religious extremism' that violent jihad in the name of Islam was not the work of 'religious leaders' but rather 'terrorists' American Muslim leaders stood up and applauded. Liberal Muslim journalists Asra Nomani and Hala Arafa were horrified with this. They pointed out that while rejecting the vision of the Islamic State, the fact was that the Islamic State, Al Qaeda and the various Islamic groups like Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba drew on the scholarship of Ibn Taymiyyah in the 14th century to Sayyid Qutb in the 20th century whom many Muslims considered as 'religious leaders.'
Graeme Wood in his recent essay in the Atlantic has argued that the 'Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic' and would be 'a key agent of the coming Apocalypse.' Nomani and Arafa state that these persons were hell-bent on chasing the Apocalypse ie according to Islamic ideology, the end of the world.
So far, we have not seen any radicalisation among the youth in India barring a few examples.
Qanta Ahmed, a doctor and a British Muslim who has lived in Saudi Arabia, recently commented in the National Review on the lexicon of terrorism and jihad. In an article 'Why Charlie Hebdo Islamists are 'terrorists', she criticised the BBC's Arabic service announcement that the service would avoid using the term 'terrorists' to describe the Charlie Hebdo attackers. She argues, rightly, that by refusing to do this, the powerful BBC was signalling to Islamist sympathisers who may form a part of the BBC's viewership. She found it even more offensive that by attempting to sanitise the lexicon, BBC Arabic was infantalising educated Muslims. Qanta Ahmed was equally perturbed that Al Jazeera English had also decided not to use words like jihadist, Islamist, militant or extremist. Her comment, with regards to terrorism in West Asia that "retreating from reality - failing to name terror when it occurs - represents a new nadir in media malfeasance" is pertinent.
Moderates crucified
Accepting negotiations with destroyers of civilisational symbols or erasing history, slurring over definitions discourages moderates trying to battle the extremists and encourages extremists because you are shown up as weak and unable to take a stand. The Saudi Kingdom has an atrocious human rights record and is the largest buyer of weaponry from the West. It could soon acquire nukes or at least nuclear cover, courtesy Pakistan. Ego prevented USA from dealing with Iran for three decades and Americans picked on Pakistan as their ally in their war on terror against Al Qaeda and Taliban and look what the world got as a result.
Societal or religious reform is successful only if it happens from within. Attempts to impose clones have always been unsuccessful. The Egyptian President was far more forthcoming in his comments than the very circumspect Obama. On New Year's Day, President Al Sisi speaking to a gathering of religious scholars at Al-Azhar University he called for the rescue of Islam from 'ideology'. Sisi said "We are in need of a religious revolution … the entire world is waiting for your next move because the Islamic world is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost … by our own hands." Sisi urged that "We need a modern, comprehensive understanding of the religion of Islam" rather than "relying on a discourse that has not changed for 800 years." Commenting on this, Qanta Ahmed wrote that this was the moment to expose Islamism, the Muslim leadership had to be reformed and the failure to call Islamism by its name or name the jihadist - as Obama had failed - guaranteed defeat."Failing to name Islamism, out of political correctness, fear or stupidity is the ultimate Islamophobic act."(Qanta Ahmed's "How to save Islam from the Islamists"The Spectator, January 17, 2015).
The well known columnist Fareed Zakaria pointed out that there was a cancer of extremism within Islam, a small minority celebrates the brutality, harbours extremely reactionary attitudes but those confronting these extremists are neither enough in numbers nor loud enough.
The ISIS use of media and social media for propaganda and image creation has been very successful. At one point they had 46,000 Twitter accounts and have used the Web effectively and rofessionally. Despite this, the ISIS will find it difficult to move beyond the Sunni belt of Syria and Iraq and parts of West Asia and Africa, unless it has the active support of the local powers. The concept of Caliphate of Baghdadi can be a bit of a non-starter as clerics of other countries are unlikely to support the idea as this would undercut their role. Political dispensations in Iran and Saudi Arabia will checkmate the Caliphate. Even the Hezbollah will not take kindly to the Caliphate.
Wheels within wheels
Egypt is surrounded by ISIS in Libya and Sinai. The West had encouraged the Arab Spring in Syria in 2011 and failed. Bashar Assad held on and today the US is at odds having to rely on Iran to handle ISIS which has been fostered by Saudi Arabia which is a friend of the US and Israel. The US can either let Assad succeed nor send its own ground troops to control territory. Yet, an ISIS success in Syria and Iraq would be a loss of face for America and a cause for concern for the Saudis whom the ISIS targets as well. Only Iran can help by becoming a front line state for the US, something they should have tried in Afghanistan. Instead they fell back on Pakistan, a dubious ally and essentially radicalised Sunni and supporter of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and others. Reliance on Iran could mean increase of Iranian power and concessions on the nuclear issue which would alarm both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Kurds are nobody's people and yet they are the ones who have helped beat back the ISIS onslaught despite inadequate support from the West but with greater support from Iran. This would make the picture clear in a region where enemies by day are often friends by stealth in the night.
The CIA Director John Brennan has recently warned that the ISIS has snowballed and was a direct threat to the US, contradicting US government claims that the ISIS had been degraded. What has happened is that neither Iraq nor Syria will ever be the same countries again and West Asia would end up divided on sectarian lines. For the present, US seems to be concentrating on striking some deal with Iran which would leave that country in a much stronger position than what it was two decades ago.
India needs to be watchful
Not Fearful Rise of terrorism in West Asia can essentially impact on India in three ways - a raising of the temperature by Pakistan on the Kashmir issue; radicalisation of the Indian Muslim youth and attempts by ISIS and Al Qaeda acting separately and in competition to expand their influence in India and other parts. Simultaneously there is so much stress on the discovery of this man Shami Witness from Bengaluru who was quite the boy next door. So far we have not seen any radicalisation among the youth in India barring a few examples and this needs to be watched even though the Indian Muslim is by far the most moderate as a category in the region and does not get swayed by events outside the country.
Indian authorities would remain more concerned with the activities of Pakistan-based terror groups some of whom have links with Saudi Arabia and have also associate offices / branches in the Gulf. By themselves West Asian groups may not make much headway in India - language and customs are a barrier which may be overcome with friendly assistance from Pakistan. Our perceived and recent closeness to the US and Israel is bound to attract notice among the Islamists but this is something the country has to be prepared for.
While there is no denying that Muslim radicals the world over are on overdrive to recruit, it is possible some Indians here or in the Gulf or elsewhere may fall under their spell, there is a difference between individual dalliance and groups that act together like a militia. There would be disgruntled people or those under peer pressure wanting to do the macho thing, which is to be expected in a large population like ours. Mercifully there is no such exodus but it is the intelligence and security agencies that need to worry. It is dangerous for the rest of us to discuss this as a major epidemic which could even make it happen. In India we tend to take anything emanating from Western capitals as gospel and more important than the real threats that we face.
Real threat to India
The real threat we face is from all terror groups that have their bases in Pakistan. This means chiefly LeT, JeM or in Afghanistan from the Haqqanis. It is these groups fired by the rhetoric of the likes of Hafiz Saeed or Munawar Hasan, backed to the hilt by the Pakistan Army operating from safe havens in Pakistan that will remain the real threat. The ISIS and / or Al Qaeda will become a real threat to us if they have the same kind of back up from the Pakistan Army.
By Special Arrangement with : Observer Research Foundation (www.orfonline.org)