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Sinister and myopic agendas may not constitute good strategy in the long run but, on occasions, if Pakistan’s infamous Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) tactics have to be historically analysed, some temporary gains could also accrue in pursuit of the subterfuge and evil.
Yet again, the other day, over 50 oil tankers headed for the US and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan were attacked by Taliban militants near the Khyber Pass in Pak’s restive Khyber-Pakhtunwa province and destroyed.
In barely three weeks, as many as 100 oil tankers and supplies laden trucks have been similarly attacked by the ISI-inspired Taliban militants causing grave logistics problems for the beleaguered US and ISAF troops committed in Operation Enduring Freedom. Well-orchestrated Talibani attacks on supply convoys has been a successful stratagem employed by the ISI to extract its tonnes of flesh for Pakistan from the US, both in terms of financial and military aid for Pakistan’s assistance in the US war on terror. The weary super power is in a bind as over 75 per cent of its supplies are dependent on the two overland routes from the Karachi port to Afghanistan via the Khyber and Bolan passes. To pressurise the Americans after repeated US drone strikes in Pak territory in North Waziristan, the Pakistanis have shut the Torkham Gate at the Khyber Pass. Maintenance by air can cater for only emergency supplies for the over lakh and fifty thousand troops in Afghanistan and only recently the US is trying to seriously develop the northern routes into Afghanistan through Central Asia. The logistical blunder of not having adequate alternative routes, meanwhile, prompts them to pay heavy costs to the Pakistanis who see the American discomfiture as a “window of opportunity” which, however, may not last very long for Pakistan to being regularly bailed out of their economic miseries and hunger for the latest weaponry by American largesse.
Pakistan, meanwhile, continues with its traditional policy of running with the hares (the Afghani Taliban) and hunting albeit reluctantly with the hounds (US). It continues to assist the Talibani Pashtuns and the Haqqani network in Afghanistan as part of its eternal “strategic depth” assets in Afghanistan and has left no stone unturned to oust Afghan President Hamid Karzai from Kabul. The latter, reportedly, is currently in secret parleys with the “good Taliban” searching for peace and stability which has eluded hapless Afghanistan so far. By all accounts, the ISI remains the major destabilising factor in the internal politics of Afghanistan. India, as it continues to assist Afghanistan in developmental and educational projects and stoutly supports the Karzai government, must also endeavour to establish some linkages with the Pashtuns other than those with the Taliban.
Like the mythological Phoenix, another Pakistani star in the form of former Army Chief and President, General Pervez Musharraf, is endeavouring to “rise from the ashes”. Last week, at his London press conference, Musharraf’s candid admission that Pakistan and its official agencies had trained and despatched terrorists for actions against India, particularly over the Kashmir issue, are nothing startling as the world knew of the ISI-jehadi terrorist nexus despite not officially acknowledging Indian protests. Listening to their own former President, some talkative ones now in the Pak establishment would definitely have turned red when they regularly and vociferously deny Pakistan’s support to international and regional terror. Interestingly, in November 2007, the shrewd General had appointed his protégé, then ISI chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, as the Army Chief when Musharraf had himself reluctantly shed his uniform. Thus, Musharraf trying to resurrect himself at this time could be more than a coincidence considering Pakistan’s political instability and internal health which appears to be deteriorating dangerously by the day. Incidentally, Musharraf has been an old US favourite and Gen. Kayani, too, is well thought of by the US notwithstanding his occasional firm stance with his American patrons.
Thus, a conglomerate of the Generals, past and present, to come back into governance of restive Pakistan should not be ruled out. Traditionally, even the US has appeared to be more comfortable dealing with Pak Generals than politicians with limited life spans — politically speaking. In India too, some in the establishment feel that, if nothing else, Gen. Musharraf is a chastened realist, even if not too reliable, considering his experience with dealing with India both during his ill fated Kargil misadventure and later as the Pak President. Anyway, the wily General has not generated any enthusiasm in Pakistan whatsoever after his decision to start a new political party.
In 2008, after engineering the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, as clearly revealed by the Headley investigations and the Wikipedia papers leaks and accepted the world over, the ISI, not surprisingly, went into a silent-cum-planning mode in 2009 and with a lot planned for 2010. This year, the ISI went into an overdrive, especially as regards J&K, and their sinister activities to foment unrest in the Valley found some resonance among the separatists who they have nurtured and funded for years. These separatists think nothing of exposing small children to stone pelting and arson unmindful of the dangers which may ensue to these young lives. Thus, it is their hands which are smeared with the blood of these young innocents. Painful and unpardonable that it is, over 100 young lives have been extinguished in unnecessary fratricide. It is time for the nation to honestly circumspect to prevent such incidents ever taking place in view of the fact that Pakistan will always continue to foment unrest in the Valley come what may.
The All-Party Delegation visit to Srinagar, led by the resolute home minister, had a positive outcome with some MPs even meeting the separatist leaders. Now, the Interlocutors Team should be speedily constituted to carry forward the dialogue process and analyse the legitimate grievances of all shades of opinion in the entire state and all regions of J&K. It must be made clear to all — within India and outside — that Jammu and Kashmir is not merely the symbol of secularism for India, but a guarantee of the core values for which the Indian state stands for and any solution for resolving any problems has to be found within the ambit of the Constitution of India. India is also proudly home to the second largest Muslim population in the world and, thus, we need no lectures from anyone on Islam, for all shades of belief within Islam are flowering here and in neighbouring Pakistan most of these beliefs have been dubbed unIslamic. Syed Shah Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar, Yasin Malik and all of their ilk should be reminded if they wish the Valley to go down the way of Waziristan or the Swat Valley or PoK or do they want the noble and cosmopolitan spirit of Kashmirayat to flourish including in PoK.
Anyway, secularists in the Valley and the nation in particular, have a long and arduous battle ahead which has to be won no matter what the cost. While genuine federalism is a laudable concept for India, the domino effect on other states needs to be analysed before any major restructuring of any region of India is contemplated.
Lt. Gen. Kamal Davar (Retd) was the first director-general of the Defence Intelligence Agency