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It is no secret that our neighbours, Pakistan and China, have constantly been pursuing their unfinished agenda vis-a-vis India. For Pakistan, it is the unfinished agenda of partition and the sores of the creation of Bangladesh from the defeat of Indo-Pak War of 1971. However, it is also the agenda of China, pursued since early fifties that is continuing unchecked.
Mao Zedong, the first Chairman and President of People’s Republic of China had declared Tibet to be the palm of China and fallaciously claimed Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh as its five fingers, adding that it was China’s responsibility to liberate them all.[i] The recent face offs in Ladakh, the ideological shift to Maoism in Nepal, border issues between Bhutan and China, the issue of delineation of Sikkim on map[ii] and the non recognition of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh by China, are proofs enough of the continuum of the policy as advocated by Mao.
As the drawdown of US and ISAF takes place in Afghanistan, a new wave of militancy can be expected not only in J&K but in the country at large. As per Maroof Raza, “The US is now shifting its gaze from the Af-Pak region to the Arabian Peninsula and Africa. For us, this is alarming, as Pakistan terror outfits shift their gaze from Af-Pak to India, which means they would soon start planning attacks to India.”[iii] The recent increased number of ceasefire violations on the Line of Control (LoC), Border Action Team (BAT) actions by Pakistan’s Special services Group (SSG) and non-state actors combine, the terrorist attack on the Indian cantonment in Samba and police station in Hira Nagar signify the shaping up of this policy. Pakistan’s terror factory is functioning like an assembly line, right from production to delivery. Its efficacy depends on constantly moving the product to the next stage with minimum bottlenecks. One major bottleneck that the terrorist face is winter. This reduces the number of militants who can cross over to the state of J&K during the period December to March. This brings down the militancy in winter months in J&K, the terrorists remaining bottled up in POK or in the Af-Pak region.
A well-known fact is that the Chinese are working on the Karakoram highway and widening it from 10m to 30m to improve its operational capacity and to provide all weather connectivity.[iv] Two more issues of concern are, firstly, the widening and improvement work for 165 km on road Jaglot-Skardu,[v] emanating from Karakoram Highway (KKH) and secondly the fact that China and Pakistan signed a $18 billion deal in July 2013 for construction of a 200 km tunnel as part of a Pak-China Economic Corridor.[vi] This, when seen in combination with the suspected leasing of the Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) region by Pakistan to China, and the recent incursions in the Depsang by the PLA Plains leads to disturbing conclusions. In conjunction with an analysis of the terrain and distance between areas East/Northeast of Skardu to G219 Highway, this leads to the possibility of a tunnel/ multiple tunnels coming up in this area. Taking the Chinese strategic culture and thought process as the basis, then the incursions in Depsang plains could well be to test Indian reaction to a possible deployment, in not so distant future, at the mouth of the tunnel that may open up in the area. The advantages that the Chinese accrue from executing such an option will go well beyond economic gains of bringing Chinese goods to GB. This also gives a huge fillip to the Nepalese route taken by militants in the Af-Pak region and in POK to enter India throughout the year. A Skardu-G219 Tunnel would in addition, supplement strategic gains by preventing the access of the Islamic militants to Xinjiang province and organised controlled side stepping from Baltistan to Eastern Ladakh as also to Tibet and further on to Nepal and to Indian Terai (Northern areas of Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar).
The recent bomb explosions during an election rally at Patna preceded by bombings in Bodhgaya points not only to availability of adequate explosives but also to the technical knowhow in the region and the requisite intelligence with the terror outfits. The best return of investment (ROI) can be generated by small teams, a fact that has withstood the test of time in all forms of warfare and history is replete with such examples. Pakistan has put to affect this strategy many a times, whether it be Mumbai, Samba, Kaluchak or terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament. China, on the other hand, is planning on a strategy wherein it does not utilise or minimises utilisation of its own resources to complete its unfinished agenda by facilitating the task through infrastructural support to Pakistani/Taliban/al Qaeda operatives and through ideological and material support to Maoists of Nepal and India. This way, China would not violate the Articles of the recently signed BDCA[vii] and not be termed as the aggressor by the world body. And yet it would have achieved its strategic goals.
The recent arrest of IM operatives are clear pointers to the fact that shift is taking place to the Terai regions of Indo-Nepal border. The Chinese monetary assistance to Nepal, promotion of radio stations with anti India agenda, enhancing military cooperation between China and Nepal and the reported emergence of 33 Chinese Study Centre along the Indo-Nepal border substantiate this growing shift. In future, these study centres could well be utilised as the launching pads for irregulars/ non state actors ex Pakistan and Afghanistan into the areas of Uttar Pradesh as also in Bihar. The Indian security establishment, sometime in 2012 planned to deploy about 8000 troops along its borders with Nepal and Bhutan[viii] has further seemed to play in line with the Pak-China agenda by planning to post J&K Police personnel[ix] along the poorly guarded Indo Nepal border.
Combine all these incidents and a pattern emerges, which further leads to the following deductions as the possible future course that Pakistan and/ or China may adopt :
· Generate conventional and non-conventional strategic space by building a tunnel to connect East/Northeast of Skardu in Baltistan to G219 Highway.
· Side step the overflow of Islamic militancy from Afghanistan and beyond, through the road route all year around to Nepal to be launched at appropriate time in Terai region/ J&K or the Indian hinterland at large.
· Use the China Study centres utilising the Mahendra Highway to laterally shift, as also feed the locations with men, material, ammunition and logistical support.
· Make Terai region the playing ground for hitting at the under belly of Indian defence forces, its weak Central Command by effectively turning the defences of India not just physically but also diplomatically as India plays into the hands of China through the latest BDCA agreement.
The Chinese have set the stage for the famous saying by Sun Tsu, “Supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”. Skardu-G219 could well be a Tunnel for Terai.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)