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Just three weeks after a bomb explosion at the south train station in Urumqi, the capital of China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, left three people dead and 79 injured, a much deadlier attack has taken place in downtown Urumqi, killing at least 31 and wounding 90. At 7:50 a.m. May 22, attackers driving two off-road vehicles crashed into an outdoor market near People's Park, tossing explosives into the crowd of morning shoppers before one of the vehicles exploded, witnesses told Xinhua News Agency. One owner of a nearby shop told Xinhua that he heard four or five explosions altogether and saw "three or four people lying on the ground," while others said they heard as many as 12 blasts.
The attack is notable for its location -- near the center of Urumqi, one of the most heavily policed cities in China -- and for its apparent targeting of civilians at the morning market. Many markets in Urumqi are divided between Han Chinese and Uighurs (a Muslim ethnic minority), suggesting that the attack could have been aimed specifically at Han shoppers. It is also notable that it comes on the heels of the April 30 and May 6 attacks on the Urumqi and Guangzhou train stations -- attacks that appear to have been carried out by either ethnic Uighurs or potentially Hui in the case of Guangzhou. And we are less than two weeks from the 25th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident on June 4, 1989. Perhaps not coincidentally, on May 22 at least one airliner flying from Shanghai to Xinjiang was diverted midflight because of security concerns.
The newest attack in Urumqi follows the Turkistan Islamic Party's release of a video May 11 claiming responsibility for the April Urumqi train station attack. The video showed the explosive devices in briefcases similar to those used in the attack. The Turkistan Islamic Party is the successor to the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, which China often cites as responsible for most violence or social disorder in Xinjiang.
The attack may also be tied to the Xinjiang High People's Court sentencing May 20 of 39 Uighurs to prison terms on charges that included organizing and leading terrorist cells, spreading ethnic hatred and illegally manufacturing firearms. Whatever the immediate trigger, the attack suggests that separatist groups in Xinjiang remain unphased by Chinese police forces' increasingly intensive presence throughout the region. This does not bode well for promises made by President Xi Jinping during a recent visit to Urumqi -- a visit that coincided with the April 30 train station attack -- to crush terrorist and separatist activity nationwide. It also reflects poorly on the security apparatus' efforts to stem the recent tide of Uighur Muslim-led or inspired attacks. In the six months since a group of alleged Uighur Muslims crashed a car into the Tiananmen Square rostrum, killing two tourists, there have been at least four more large-scale attacks on civilians nationwide, including the May 22 bombing.
Although home to the 2009 ethnic riots, which left hundreds dead, Urumqi had in recent years appeared to fade as the primary target for attacks. The Uighur-dominated regions of Kashgar, Aksu and Hotan in southern Xinjiang, emerging as the new key centers of ethnic unrest in the region. Unlike recent attacks in Urumqi, Guangzhou and Kunming, however, most of the violence in southern Xinjiang targeted Chinese police and military personnel. And unlike most incidents in Kashgar and most Uighur-related incidents over the past decade, both of the most recent attacks in Urumqi have involved bombs. This indicates an evolution of the Turkistan Islamic Party's operational tempo and methods. It is not yet clear whether these bombings are related operationally to the knife attacks in Yunnan and Guangzhou, but if the Turkistan Islamic Party is centrally organizing such attacks, it suggests tight organization but limited resources in terms of attackers.
Chinese authorities have already intensified security in cities around the country, both due to the recent spate of terrorist attacks and the upcoming anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident. The security cordon, particularly in regard to the ethnic Uighur communities in most major cities, is likely to be tightened further. Beijing may demand, publicly or privately, that Pakistan take action against the Turkistan Islamic Party leadership, which is believed to operate from Pakistani territory. However, the current attacks use relatively simple materials and methods to attack crowded, public places, which cannot have tight security without significantly disrupting daily activities.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)