.png)
.jpg)
Rebel activity and successes in the Darfur and Kordofan regions of Sudan have been increasing. While the rebels' claims that they will march on Khartoum are unrealistic, the failure of the Sudanese armed forces to contain the rebellion has allowed rebel forces to threaten Khartoum's grip on the western region of Darfur and the southern region of Kordofan. Sudan can continue to exist only if the Arab-dominated core along the Nile in the center of the country can continue to control these two regions. Khartoum must therefore devote even greater attention to thwarting the rebels while simultaneously managing the challenge posed by South Sudan.
The peace process that led to the independence of South Sudan from Sudan in 2011 set a dangerous precedent that could cause Sudanese territory to diminish even further. Rebels based in Darfur and Kordofan have hinted at following South Sudan's lead.
Losing Darfur would be substantially less costly to Sudan's coffers than the loss of South Sudan, which accounted for approximately 75 percent of combined northern and southern oil production. Unlike Darfur, however, Kordofan houses an important part of Sudan's remaining oil production. Both of Sudan's two newest oil fields are in South Kordofan. One, al-Barsaia, is in western South Kordofan. The second, Hadida oil field, is located on the border of East Darfur and South Kordofan. It produces 10,000 barrels per day, about 15 percent of total Sudanese production.
But the rebellion in Darfur is closely linked with rebel activity in South Kordofan, jeopardizing Khartoum's hold over the latter region and reinforcing the idea of independence in non-Arab majority parts of Sudan. An alliance of rebels from Darfur and South Kordofan launched a joint attack April 27 in the North Kordofan city of Umm Ruwaba, the second-largest town in the state, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) east of El Obeid, the state capital. The alliance, known as the Sudan Revolutionary Front, is made up of the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan Liberation Movement, which started in Darfur, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, which originated in South Kordofan. Umm Ruwaba is located on the road that connects El Obeid with Khartoum, and while rebels abandoned control of the town after holding it for several hours, the road to the country's capital remains insecure due to an ongoing rebel presence in the area. The offensive stands out as the first time a Sudan Revolutionary Front offensive has pushed into North Kordofan. Previous actions by the group had taken place only in South Kordofan.
This spread of rebel activity into North Kordofan comes after Darfuri rebels have escalated their challenge in southern Darfur to the central government. A faction of the Sudan Liberation Army under rebel leader Minni Minawi took several towns east of Nyala, the state capital of South Darfur, on April 6. Sudanese armed forces regained control of Muhajiriya and Labado, but elements of the Sudan Liberation Army continue to control Hijer and Marla, among other towns.
Sudanese security officials have expressed concern over the threat to Nyala, pointing out that Khartoum has been unable to prepare the city for a possible rebel advance. Just west of Nyala, another faction of the Sudan Liberation Army led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur captured Shataya and Kailek on April 18.
In an attempt to quell the rebel activity, Sudan has increased its air raids against rebel positions in southern Darfur. But on the ground, pro-Khartoum Abu Tira militia forces and Sudanese armed forces have abandoned their positions in the face of the rebel operations.
In North Darfur, Sudan has been able to depend on allies to fight the Justice and Equality Movement in the mountains around Darma. One faction, led by Mohamed Bashar Ahmed, abandoned the rest of the Justice and Equality Movement in favor of a peace agreement with Khartoum in 2012 and has been fighting alongside Chadian forces against factions of the Justice and Equality Movement.
The Chadian troops are part of the joint Sudanese-Chadian force created after a 2008 agreement between the two countries to stop supporting rebel forces in a proxy conflict they had waged against each other. The activity of Chadian forces shows the Chadian commitment to this agreement -- and the potential benefits Khartoum could gain from diplomatic alliances supplementing its security operations.
Khartoum has also made use of diplomacy with the rebels themselves. A peace process hosted in Doha, Qatar, has led to agreements between the central government and several rebel groups in Darfur. Khartoum even reached an agreement in Doha with the Liberation and Justice Movement in July 2011. This agreement included security arrangements and provided for the inclusion of Liberation and Justice Movement members in government, including in the civil service. Khartoum did not implement most of the elements of the peace agreement, however, and as a result of the recent combat in Darfur, the Liberation and Justice Movement suspended its activity in government April 25.
Khartoum also signed a peace agreement in 2012 with the faction of the Justice and Equality Movement led by Mohamed Bashar. This Darfuri rebel group not only has committed to a cease-fire with Sudanese forces, it has operated against other Justice and Equality Movement factions in northern Darfur.
The continuing threat of rebel forces in Darfur and Kordofan is burdening President Omar al Bashir's government, which already is beset by economic problems and potentially recurring protests. The regime had already suffered from the loss of South Sudan and from al Bashir's announcement that he plans to step down in 2015, though whether he will follow through on this remains unclear.
His government will continue to try to use diplomacy to reduce instability, as it did with South Sudan when the two sides agreed to release political prisoners and to resume the transport of South Sudanese oil through Sudanese pipelines. Khartoum can only go so far with diplomacy, however, as domestic pressure is continuing to build against concessions to South Sudan, discontent combining with frustration with the leadership's inability to defeat the rebels in Darfur and Kordofan.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)