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International involvement in eastern parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo appears to be escalating, with a U.N. brigade committing recently to take part in combat operations against the M23 rebel group in North Kivu province.
The escalation is, in part, a response to M23's shelling of Goma, the province's capital, on Aug. 22. Since then, clashes involving U.N. troops have erupted around several villages north of the city, where the Congolese military and the rebels have been fighting for months.
Congolese forces are attempting to push M23 away from Goma, while the rebels are trying to leverage their ability to strike the city to force negotiations with Kinshasa. The intensifying crisis has renewed accusations from the Congolese government that Rwanda is supporting the rebels and has prompted fears that M23 may be in position to seize the city, as it did briefly in late 2012. However, the increased involvement of U.N. forces will temper outside support for M23 and bolster the capabilities of the Congolese military, thus considerably eroding the threat posed by the rebel group and undermining its goals.
The U.N. Intervention Brigade -- a multinational force authorized for offensive operations that is part of the broader U.N. peacekeeping mission in the country -- has been deployed in Goma since May 2013. Rebels had briefly captured the city in November 2012. Though logistical issues have delayed the full deployment of the U.N. brigade, most of its troops, who hail primarily from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi, are now in place. Until the past week, the brigade was limited to patrolling Goma and its direct surroundings, and such operations did not involve armed engagements with M23.
However, on Aug. 22, during clashes between the Congolese military and M23 around the village of Kibati, which is less than 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) outside Goma, the rebels launched rockets into the outskirts of the provincial capital. A U.N. artillery element then returned fire -- the first direct action taken by the U.N. Intervention Brigade against M23 since its deployment began. Since the artillery exchange, the U.N. brigade has deployed ground forces to support the Congolese military in Kibati. Recently, 23 Congolese soldiers were reportedly killed and another 69 were wounded in clashes with the rebels, while three U.N. troops have been wounded. This casualty rate is much higher than those reported in other engagements over the past month, suggesting that fighting has intensified.
The escalation prompted the United Kingdom to evacuate some its foreign offices in Goma, citing fears that another rebel takeover of the city may be looming. However, while combat appears to be intensifying, the involvement of the U.N. brigade makes it highly unlikely that M23 will be able to mount another offensive to capture the provincial capital.
The Congolese military may have exaggerated some of its successes in recent months, considering that it is still fighting for positions around multiple villages where it has claimed victory. Nonetheless, government forces did push M23 out of critical tactical positions around Goma in June and have prevented the rebel group from recapturing them. Battalions trained by the United States and Belgium have boosted the military's capabilities. The addition of the U.N. brigade further strengthens the military's operations near Goma.
Moreover, M23 is not as strong as other groups that overpowered the Congolese armed forces in past rebellions. Negotiations following military defeats in North Kivu in 2009, for example, led to the integration of rebels into the military, though some of the troops eventually rebelled again. However, M23 currently has only around 2,500 to 3,000 members; the Congolese military and the United Nations have some 15,000 soldiers in North Kivu. The rebel group's ability to threaten Goma has been further constrained by infighting.
The involvement of the U.N. brigade also makes Rwanda's traditional support for Congolese rebels much more precarious. After the Aug. 22 incident, Kinshasa claimed that some of the rockets fired at Goma originated from Rwanda, while Kigali said that several U.N. artillery shells landed on its side of the border. Rwanda has indeed been known to support M23 as well as the group's predecessors. However, Kigali would not want to be caught directly supporting rebels that are engaged in combat with U.N. forces, and Rwanda has prevented M23 from targeting Goma in the past. While the rebel group's seizures of remote villages in North Kivu has garnered relatively little international attention, Kigali would likely face heavy international political pressure if its proxies took and occupied the provincial capital -- a city of more than one million people. Ugandan support for the rebels could wane for similar reasons.
Still, the U.N. and Congolese forces do not have the strength to completely destroy M23 throughout North Kivu. And while M23 has only occasionally fired shells into the outskirts of Goma, the group is likely still trying to use its ability to threaten the city to pressure Congolese President Joseph Kabila into negotiations. M23 has declared its desire for a negotiated settlement to the conflict, one likely to include the reintegration of rebel forces into the Congolese military, but Kabila has avoided such talks -- any offer to reintegrate rebel forces into the military once again would not be supported by the military's leadership.
Thus, the president will continue to push for a military solution to the crisis in North Kivu and appeal for additional support from the U.N. forces in the country. M23 will be forced to avoid large confrontations with the multinational force, and it may eventually lose the ability to threaten Goma altogether. From Kinshasa's perspective, this would stabilize the region. However, the rebel group may have few options but to continue mounting major attacks on population centers in North Kivu, as well as on Congolese and U.N. troops, in order to keep its goal of a settlement alive.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)