.png)
.jpg)
Tensions are running high between Mozambique's ruling party and the political opposition, but a return to all-out civil war seems highly unlikely. On Oct. 22, fighters from the Mozambique National Resistance Movement, commonly known as Renamo, attacked a police station in Maringue, a city located in central Sofala province, according to Radio Mozambique.
The attack comes one day after the group annulled its 1992 peace agreement with the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front. Despite the recent attack, Renamo is not militarily capable of restarting a war, nor does it have a foreign patron willing to sponsor it in its bid to take power by force.
Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama ended the 21-year peace treaty with Maputo after government forces attacked his camp at Sathunjira in what Dhlakama claims was an attempt on his life. The intent of the attack notwithstanding, Renamo and government forces have clashed intermittently in recent months. Indeed, the government attacked opposition camps in April, June and August, and Renamo attacked civilians and transportation infrastructure in central Sofala in April and June.
But their mutual animosity spans nearly 40 years. The two parties fought a civil war from 1975, when Mozambique gained independence, until 1992. Ultimately the Mozambique Liberation Front was able to win because it controlled the economic core of the country and because it received modest support from the Soviet Union and China. Renamo had only meager revenue from subsistence farming and some support from Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe). When the Cold War was over, these groups were left to their own devices.
Since 1992, the ruling party has largely ignored the opposition. Only in the past few years has Renamo become a meaningful actor again. Notably, the group's power lies less in its ability to win enough votes to supplant the Mozambique Liberation Front -- its political base comprises the minority ethnic Sena and Ndau, who live in the impoverished central and northern provinces -- and more in its ability to disrupt economic activity. Central Mozambique, including Sofala and Tete provinces, are the heart of the country's coal production. Attacks on public security and transportation networks can halt traffic crossing this region and impede the export of its goods and services.
Unsurprisingly, Renamo is not attracting any international support. Unlike during the Cold War, there is no need for a proxy battle to destabilize regimes in Africa. Were it not for the opposition's ability to disrupt the reliable and secure development of emerging economic resources, it would not garner much attention from Maputo -- or anywhere else, for that matter.
For these reasons, Renamo will not reignite a civil war. However, Mozambique can expect to see somewhat regular, low-level security incidents, which may prove destabilizing enough to compel Maputo to address the group's political grievances. The Mozambique Liberation Front may even incorporate the opposition party into its government, effectively creating a coalition government, though that will not happen anytime soon. National elections in Mozambique are scheduled for 2014, and the Mozambique Liberation Front will likely be the victor. But even if it is not, Renamo will retain the ability to disrupt the economy, forcing whoever does win into capitulation to some extent.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)