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A firefight that broke out late Dec. 15 in the South Sudanese capital of Juba does not appear to have been an attempted coup, as some news organizations have reported. Rather, the incident -- in which presidential guard members with different tribal backgrounds fought at their barracks in the capital -- highlights the persisting tribal frictions in South Sudan.
These tribal frictions take a central role in the political competition between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and former Vice President Riek Machar, who come from different tribes, as they prepare to compete for the presidency in the 2015 election. Moreover, the incident is unlikely to affect the flow of oil from South Sudan through Sudan. Even if there were a change in government in Juba, the new government would face the same economic constraints that Kiir faces.
Tensions between the Dinka and Nuer, the largest ethnic groups within South Sudan, have existed for a long time and have often dominated political and military alliances within the country. Since Kiir, a Dinka, dismissed Machar, a Nuer, in July, these tensions have been rising. As Kiir and Machar initiate their presidential campaigns, frictions between tribes will be one of the central issues in South Sudanese politics ahead of the 2015 election.
The incident at the presidential guard barracks in Juba likely was a result of Kiir's attempts to balance these tribal allegiances. A new unit mainly comprising Dinka troops was formed recently and was deployed at the presidential guard barracks with units consisting mainly of Nuer. This may have been a move on Kiir's part to lessen the Nuer influence in his presidential guard in the wake of the tensions that erupted when he dismissed Machar. The night of Dec. 15, a dispute occurred between the two groups as the mostly Dinka unit took up guard positions. This dispute ended in a firefight, and according to local witnesses, the Nuer troops were forced out of the presidential guard barracks.
Kiir's Response and Motivations
Although news organizations have used the term "coup," the incident did not bear the hallmarks of a politically motivated attempt to overthrow the government. Kiir did not call the incident a coup in his press conference, instead treating it as a criminal act. South Sudanese military forces did take up positions across the capital, and the airport and national television reportedly were shut down. Also, Kiir announced a curfew in Juba between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. These actions may have been attempts to prevent the incident from escalating into wider tribal violence, although they also could help prevent an actual coup attempt from being mounted during the period of insecurity following the firefight. Several former ministers that Kiir dismissed in July allegedly have been arrested, although Machar is not reported to be among them.
Longer-term political motivations may have been behind the security detail reshuffle that triggered the firefight. Kiir could use the security incident and the claims of a coup attempt having been behind it to pre-emptively round up opponents and reduce the likelihood of future coup attempts. Aware of the uneasiness of his Nuer rivals, including his former vice president, Kiir may have sought to forcibly reshuffle the presidential guard's composition to head off any potential coup behavior in the future. Without just cause, arresting Machar himself likely would have been too risky, as it may have set off widespread tribal tensions that would have been difficult to control; however, arresting Machar for instigating reprisal violence following the presidential guard reshuffle would be possible. At a time when South Sudan's main focus is on developing the institutions of a state only two years old and establishing a stable economy, such tensions would be undesirable.
Keeping the Oil Flowing
Although the incident highlights the tribal tensions that play such a large part of South Sudan's internal politics, Kiir has made sure to carefully address the incident in relation to South Sudan's main foreign interest: the continuation of oil exports through Sudan. Kiir allegedly called Sudanese President Omar al Bashir before taking any action. This communication, likely intended to reassure Khartoum about the coup rumors and guarantee a secure resolution of the incident, shows the commitment of both Juba and Khartoum to maintaining the flow of oil. Both countries have faced economic difficulties caused by previous oil export interruptions, and while relations between them are difficult at best, their interest in securing the income from oil exports remains critical to both countries as they struggle to manage their weak economies. Cooperation in the oil sector is the only sustainable option for both Juba and Khartoum to guarantee meaningful and ongoing revenues.
In the past, Bashir has accused South Sudan of supporting Sudanese rebel groups, leading to a dispute over oil exports. At the time, there was some speculation that Machar and others had in fact been supporting the rebel groups to undermine Kiir's authority as well as his ability to placate Bashir and get oil production back online. Continued competition between these separate factions in South Sudan could lead to a repeat of these events, although whoever is in power in Juba will seek to stabilize the South Sudanese economy, which requires safeguarding the South Sudanese oil exports (which in turn requires cooperation with Sudan).
Within South Sudan, the preparations for the 2015 presidential election will dominate internal politics. Some of this will likely play out in the form of attempts to deliver actual governance or ensure economic stability, but these preparations will also involve leveraging tribal allegiances. Attempts to position particular ethnic groups, especially the Dinka and Nuer, to gain a more dominant position ahead of the election could also increase tensions within the South Sudanese military. Having fought in separate rebel armies during the Sudanese civil war that led to South Sudan's independence, most units of the South Sudanese military continue to be either predominantly Dinka or Nuer. Managing these frictions within the security forces will be an important element of the government's attempt to stem overall ethnic competition and to maintain security ahead of and during the elections.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)