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Although the South Sudanese capital of Juba remained in government hands Dec. 23, rebel fighters from the country's Nuer tribe control the cities of Bor and Bentiu -- in Jonglei and Unity states respectively -- triggering the evacuation of foreigners, oil workers and humanitarian officials. Mediation talks between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and representatives of rebel leader and former Vice President Riek Machar are currently ongoing.
The present violence stems from a series of clashes in Juba on Dec. 15, which saw Kiir accuse Machar of trying to seize power and depose Kiir by force. Uganda and other East African countries have made diplomatic efforts to restore stability to South Sudan, likely intending to assist with the formation of a coalition government in Juba in order to prevent a political dispute from turning into civil war.
Following the clashes in Juba on Dec. 15 between military forces loyal to Kiir and mutinous soldiers following Machar, South Sudan has seen a geographic division emerge predominantly in areas populated by ethnic Nuer. Machar loyalist fighters from the Nuer tribe have largely withdrawn from the South Sudanese capital and have stood their ground in the states of Jonglei and Unity, where their tribe is principally found.
Humanitarian evacuations are taking place in the rebel-held cities of Bor and Bentiu. Foreign workers from India's Oil and Natural Gas Co. and the China National Petroleum Co. are withdrawing employees from Unity state, which has resulted in the disruption of crude oil production. Ugandan helicopters and U.S. military CV-22 Ospreys came under fire Dec. 22 in Bor as they attempted to evacuate civilians from the Nuer-occupied city.
A military standoff is underway in both Bor and Bentiu. South Sudanese military officials have given the ethnic Nuer troops in Bentiu a three-day warning to surrender or face military action, with a similar threat directed at the Nuer fighters occupying Bor as well. A battle to recover Bor and Bentiu would likely result in extensive casualties and could escalate tensions, triggering the wider targeting of Dinka and Nuer ethnic populations in South Sudan. As a sign of deeper divisions, Maj. Gen James Koang Chuol, who defected from the Kiir administration in Juba with some 700 soldiers, also announced a new administration for Unity state, appointing new officials.
Diplomatic efforts have only resulted in preliminary talks so far. Led by Uganda, foreign diplomacy aims to stabilize South Sudan -- essentially a former client state of Kampala -- and prevent insecurity from spilling over into Uganda and East Africa, threatening emerging economic integration.
Kiir has met with Ugandan and East African officials, but so far Machar has not, sending his deputy Rebecca Nyandeng de Mabior to Juba in his place. Machar has said, however, that he would be willing to come to the negotiating table, but this has not happened so far. As a precondition for talks, Machar has demanded the release of 10 former ministers and officials in the Kiir government, a demand not yet met.
Uganda's diplomatic and military efforts (Kampala has deployed special operations troops to secure Juba's international airport) are not an unprecedented development in South Sudan. Uganda has extensive military and political relationships with the South Sudanese that extend back to South Sudan's civil war for independence.
This historic relationship, in addition to Ugandan combat experience gained from peace enforcement operations in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, means that Uganda is well positioned to help resolve South Sudan's political crisis. Ugandan mediation will not be without its critics, however, ready to accuse Kampala of taking sides.
Uganda's deployment of special operations forces to secure Juba's international airport -- and possibly President Kiir as well -- is in response to Machar's call for the South Sudanese army to overthrow Kiir's government. Uganda requires stability in South Sudan for its own economic interests. Kampala has shown its preference for Kiir, but no matter who holds the South Sudanese presidency, the imperatives remain the same: unrest in South Sudan must not disrupt Uganda's own stability and security.
Uganda has historically supported the South Sudanese in their resistance against the Sudanese state. Uganda provided sanctuary, training and weapons to the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement and its armed branch that became the government of South Sudan upon independence from Sudan in 2011.
Uganda's main interest in supporting the South Sudanese was to block Sudanese expansion. If played out to an extreme conclusion, Kampala feared that Sudan could eventually manipulate the tribal allegiances that flow across the Ugandan and Sudanese border, making Uganda into a client state of Khartoum.
The Sudanese People's Liberation Army was in effect a client of Kampala, keeping Sudanese forces on the defensive and far away from Uganda proper, effectively establishing a buffer between Uganda and Sudan. Sudan countered in kind: the Lord's Resistance Army was Sudan's proxy militia that it used to destabilize and keep Ugandan forces as far away from South Sudan as possible.
The geography between Uganda and South Sudan helps explain the close interconnectedness between the countries. Unlike Ethiopia and its mountains or Kenya and its harsh desert, there are no natural boundaries between Uganda and South Sudan, allowing its population groups the ability to move freely across borders.
The Balance of Power and Economics
Kampala and Khartoum, in reality, hold nearly identical -- albeit opposing -- interests. While Uganda feared Sudanese expansion, Khartoum was equally apprehensive of expansion by the South Sudanese, especially in the regions that are rich in the crude oil that forms the driver of Sudan and South Sudan's economies. South Sudan was ultimately successful in its bid for independence, but extensive negotiations and a crude oil-backed revenue sharing accord have underwritten the tenuous truce between the newfound state of South Sudan and Sudan itself.
While the Sudanese People's Liberation Army is no longer a strategic threat to Khartoum (and likewise the Lord's Resistance Army is no longer a strategic threat to Kampala), Uganda maintains deep interests directly and indirectly related to South Sudan's stability. Uganda is an emerging economy in the East African Community, a post-China (PC16) country positioned to attract manufacturing activities relocating from the east. It is also deepening its economic integration through road, rail and energy infrastructure with neighbors including South Sudan and also Kenya.
Uganda may not currently face a Sudanese proxy threat, but instability in South Sudan spilling over into Uganda could halt foreign investment in the energy and transportation infrastructure it is establishing. Uganda's oil fields are less than 320 kilometers (200 miles) from the South Sudanese border. Confidence in proposed refinery and pipeline projects could be undermined if insecurity in nearby South Sudan rises beyond a manageable level. Therefore, Uganda will take the lead on mediating the tribal clashes between the Dinka and the Nuer.
It is not, however, just the Ugandans wanting a peaceful resolution in South Sudan. All of South Sudan's political backers, including the United States, the United Nations, and Juba's East African neighbors, have weighed in on Kiir and Machar to agree to a peaceful resolution. This widespread pressure from all of South Sudan's backers is largely being channeled through Uganda, which is being recognized and supported because of its historic lines of communication, which can speak to South Sudanese concerns without isolating them.
As South Sudan's northern neighbor, Sudan requires stability to keep the oil flowing. While it may not mind seeing Juba weakened, Khartoum is still severely impacted by the production (or lack of production) in South Sudan's energy sector. Sudan cannot reverse South Sudan's independence, and what modest gains it has made in political support are still very tenuous.
Khartoum gains most in the conflict by remaining uninvolved, other than putting in a good word for Kiir (as it has already done), using goodwill to improve negotiations for the oil. Above all else, Khartoum is dependent on revenues earned from South Sudanese crude oil flowing through Sudan's pipelines. Diminished crude oil production in South Sudan means additional economic stress on Khartoum, which is facing protests of its own.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will look to directly coordinate mediation efforts in South Sudan, compelling the ethnically fractious politicians in Juba to resolve their political conflict through non-violent means. South Sudan's ethnic Nuer and Dinka political factions are each campaigning for national elections in 2015, but to ensure long-term stability in the newly independent state, a coalition government including Nuer and Dinka representation is required.
Neither Kiir's ethnic Dinka political base nor Machar Nuer's base can provide stability across South Sudan without incorporating each other's tribal interests into a governing platform. Restraint from violence will be the immediate step negotiated by the Ugandan government (and supported by other East African and Western government officials). In the months to come, a return to a coalition government restoring Machar's Nuer representation into Kiir's administration will be sought.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)