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In the absence of a cease-fire between the South Sudanese government and rebel representatives who are currently meeting in Addis Ababa, both sides continue to maneuver on the battlefield. In addition to tribal violence throughout the country, larger military confrontations are ongoing in Bor, Malakal and Bentiu.
However, there is no direct threat to the oil-producing region of Upper Nile state or to the capital, Juba. Should a cease-fire be achieved, it would still not make negotiations over the conflict's underlying causes much easier.
Since Jan. 14 there has been heavy fighting, including tank battles, in the streets of Malakal, the regional capital of Upper Nile state. Upper Nile is South Sudan's primary oil-producing region, but the unrest has not directly threatened oil production. Meanwhile, a stalemate has emerged in the fighting along the route between the rebel-held town of Bor and Juba, keeping the rebels who initially fled Juba from threatening the capital.
Securing Oil Production
The battle for Malakal began when the local commander of the South Sudanese military's 7th light infantry division, an ethnic Nuer, defected and declared allegiance to the rebellion. The rebels seized Malakal on Dec. 24 but government forces managed to recapture it five days later. The rebels launched a new offensive Jan. 14. Though outnumbered, government forces reportedly hold the northern parts of the town, while the rebels seem in control of most of the rest. The government shut down communication networks in the town and lost contact with the commander of its local forces Jan. 17, but reinforcements were reportedly en route.
The fighting in Malakal has prompted fears of disruptions in the oil production in the northeastern part of Upper Nile state, though the distance between the town and oil facilities (about 140 kilometers, or 90 miles) has kept the violence from directly threatening production. Malakal has changed hands twice but it has not affected production. Additionally, the areas near the Palogue and Adar Yale facilities are reportedly secure.
The Road to the Capital
However, the largest concentration of forces is situated on the road connecting Juba and Bor, the capital of Jonglei state. Currently occupying Bor, the rebels have threatened to march on Juba, but government forces marching toward Bor along the same route have halted the rebel advance. Control of the route would enable government troops to recapture Bor, a Nuer-friendly town.
Ugandan troops are at the front line supporting the South Sudanese government forces defending Juba and attempting to recapture Bor. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni deployed troops to Juba early in the crisis, initially to secure the airport and facilitate the extraction of Ugandan citizens. These Ugandan forces have also been working to secure the road between Uganda and Juba -- a route that runs through the town of Yei, where rebels have been active. Ugandan support, which includes heavy armor and air assets, could prove useful in safeguarding the South Sudanese capital.
Bentiu and Elsewhere
Unlike in Upper Nile state, violence in Unity state, some of which reportedly targeted local Dinka employees of the oil facilities, has caused oil production to be shut down. This production accounted for 45,000 barrels per day of South Sudan's total production of 240,000 bpd prior to the outbreak of violence.
Bentiu, the regional capital of Unity state and the focus of fighting in the region, is located at the center of nearby oil facilities, and the deteriorating security situation compelled oil producers to shut down production and evacuate foreign personnel. Four of these facilities were reportedly shut down using emergency procedures, which likely damaged the infrastructure. This will delay the restart of these facilities once personnel are able to return.
Bentiu itself has been under government control since government forces recaptured it Jan. 10, though attacks by groups loyal to Vice President Riek Machar have occurred. Initial control of the town was lost when the local commander of the 4th Division, Maj. Gen. James Koang Chuol of the Nuer tribe, defected to join Machar's forces.
The few soldiers in the division who remained loyal to President Salva Kiir Mayardit withdrew to Mayom, where they were reinforced by units of the 3rd and 5th divisions from the Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. These forces then managed to recapture Bentiu and pushed the remaining rebels south, where they are allegedly still in control of Leer, near the southernmost oil facilities.
Justice and Equality Movement rebels have looted at least one oil facility in Unity state, reportedly stealing food and computers. This rebel group, which originated in Sudan's Darfur region, has been fighting Sudanese government forces in Sudan's South Kordofan state and depends on supply lines from South Sudan. The violence in Unity state poses a threat to these supply lines, leading Justice and Equality Movement fighters to cross the border and support the fight against Machar's rebels. While the group is unlikely to play a major role in the conflict, its looting activities further complicate the security situation in Unity state.
One important region that has not seen major military offensives is the northwestern part of Jonglei state. This region remains under government control and is now critical in the battle. The military presence there has kept rebels in Upper Nile and Unity states from linking up with the main rebel force located around Bor in southern Jonglei.
When Chuol's rebels were pushed out of Bentiu, they reportedly set course for the town of Ayod, through which they would have been able to set up direct transport links with the main rebel force. However, government forces were deployed on the eastern side of the White Nile to prevent the rebels from crossing into Jonglei. Controlling northwestern Jonglei also enables government forces to attempt to march on Akobo along the Ethiopian border, where Machar is purportedly hiding among rebel forces. This would otherwise be impossible until government forces recaptured Bor.
Although mediators in Addis Ababa are pushing representatives to sign a cease-fire agreement, the military aspect of the conflict continues to rage. Each side wants to ensure that it has the best possible position ahead of negotiations. Ultimately, the ethnic violence and the offensives are unlikely to directly threaten South Sudan's remaining oil production in Upper Nile or the government's control of the capital.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)