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Al Shabaab militants launched an attack on the Villa Somalia compound, which houses the Somali presidential palace, on Feb. 21. The attack illustrated the group's ability to strike at one of the most secure locations in Mogadishu and to transition between different ways of fighting as circumstances dictate, aiding its survival.
As al Shabaab has become more active in Mogadishu in recent weeks, concerns about the militant group's activities in the capital have risen. Unless security forces conduct a more effective counterinsurgency, the increased al Shabaab presence in Mogadishu may cause continued attrition that could allow the group to re-establish a foothold in the capital. Despite planned offensives to defeat al Shabaab in the rest of the country and al Shabaab's loss of control of Kismayo and other cities, the group continues to pose a serious threat to attempts by the government and the African peacekeepers to establish control over Somali territory.
In the attack on Villa Somalia, a vehicle loaded with explosives detonated at the main entrance of the compound, heavily damaging the security checkpoint and opening the way for gunmen dressed in Somali military uniforms to enter. Gunfire and explosions were heard from within the compound, but security forces now claim to have eliminated the last of the al Shabaab fighters. The president, located inside the compound at the time of the attack, remained safe.
This attack follows the tactics al Shabaab militants used in their assaults on the Mogadishu courthouse in April 2013 and the U.N. compound in June 2013. These attacks combined the destructive power of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and suicide commandos.
The Villa Somalia compound is seen as the second-most secure location in Mogadishu. The airport that hosts troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia and a number of diplomatic posts, including the British Embassy, is regarded as the most secure (although the airport was targeted Feb. 13 when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device struck a U.N. convoy as it entered the airport compound). Al Shabaab's ability to penetrate Villa Somalia is a significant show of force.
Mogadishu's Security Environment
Within the Somali government's wider attempts to regain control over its territory, Mogadishu is its main foothold. Although African Union forces have secured other parts of Somalia in recent years, the security presence within Mogadishu is considerably higher than anywhere else in the country. Nonetheless, al Shabaab attacks have been on the rise within the capital over the last few weeks. Car bombings, assassinations and attacks on military positions have occurred at a higher tempo than before and have raised the possibility of al Shabaab re-establishing itself within the capital.
Mogadishu is still home to many supporters of al Shabaab, and this has made it difficult for security forces to prevent the militants from operating inside the capital. There have been reports of al Shabaab fighters returning to the capital, especially in the northern Heliwa district, which correspond with the higher frequency of attacks. Over the past few days, heavy fighting has also been reported in this district; during the night of Feb. 19, militants attacked an African Union base and engaged in an hourlong firefight with the peacekeeping forces. Local witnesses have also reported heavy attacks and artillery fire in surrounding districts, such as Yaaqshiid.
Although al Shabaab may not be capable of establishing control over a part of the capital right away, its increased activity continues to damage the sense of security the government had instilled in Mogadishu. Apart from pushing security forces to concentrate on securing more sensitive sites, such as Villa Somalia and the international airport, continued attrition through attacks on African Union and Somali military positions could eventually allow al Shabaab to re-establish a foothold in one of the less fortified parts of the capital if security forces are unable to limit the freedom of operation the militants currently have.
The Struggle Beyond Mogadishu
Outside of the capital, Somali and African Union forces have held territory around Beledweyne, Baidoa and Kismayo, but al Shabaab activity continues to disrupt the supply lines between them. While Ugandan forces have been working to secure the route between Mogadishu and Baidoa, Ethiopian forces that recently joined the African Union mission have been doing the same with the routes from the Ethiopian border to Baidoa and the route from Beledweyne to Mogadishu. However, al Shabaab continues to fight these efforts and mount attacks on these supply lines and within these cities.
Without reliable access to Kismayo, al Shabaab has begun using the interior north-south corridor stretching from Bosaso in Puntland to Baardheere in southern Somalia as its main route for linking up with supplies coming from affiliated groups in Yemen and elsewhere. It has been the African Union forces' goal to disrupt these supply lines, but the lines have not been fully cut. However, security forces have made gains to the extent that al Shabaab no longer controls major urban areas.
A large-scale offensive to wrest control of larger swathes of land from al Shabaab across Somalia, widely announced by African Union forces in recent months, has so far failed to materialize. Al Shabaab continues to hold on to territory in the population centers of Baardheere and Buurdhuubo along the Juba River, as well as Jilib and Baraawe along the coastline. The militant organization has also maintained freedom of operation in large areas of southern and central Somalia where there is no African Union peacekeeper presence and reportedly has even been expanding its stronghold in the Al Madow Mountains of Puntland to the north.
More than anything, al Shabaab's continued ability to stage attacks throughout the country and its increased activity in Mogadishu highlight the group's adaptivity. Throughout its history, al Shabaab has shown the ability to transition between a conventional rebellion and an insurgency or guerilla-type way of fighting, based on constraints imposed upon the group by opposing forces. By fighting a more guerilla-styled war they manage to conserve resources and hope that attrition breaks their enemy. Al Shabaab militants employ different types of fighting based on local constraints within the Somali conflict, surrendering territorial control and switching to insurgent tactics in areas where government and African Union operations threaten to overrun them. Within this adaptive strategy, the recent increased activity in Mogadishu in particular highlights the potential of a resurgence of al Shabaab as a threat to government control within the capital.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)