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According to statements from Sudanese and Egyptian officials, Sudan deployed a platoon-sized military force by sea into the port town of Halayeb, located on the Red Sea coast, around May 5. The town is located within the Halayeb triangle, a disputed territory between Egypt and Sudan that is under de facto Egyptian control.
However, neither country has given much public attention to the incident because they are focused on expanding their diplomatic relations. Egypt and Sudan have been trying to set up a joint border force, both countries are involved in negotiations relating to the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam, and Egypt is currently attempting to overturn its suspension from the African Union. These ongoing diplomatic initiatives -- along with a lack of demonstrated intent to make the movement a major issue -- mean that events in the Halayeb triangle are unlikely to disrupt relations between Cairo and Khartoum.
The Halayeb triangle, which is the desert area above the 22nd parallel along the Red Sea coast, is not particularly strategically significance. It comprises a few small villages, military posts and a run-down port. Despite meager prospects of manganese and oil resources, the Halayeb region remains more of a symbolic relic of colonial rule than an economic interest. Sudanese forces have not been stationed inside the Halayeb triangle since Egypt established a military presence there and forced the Sudanese to withdraw in 1995. Since then, the Halayeb triangle has been de facto administered by Cairo. In fact, an Egyptian decree in February formalized Halayeb as an Egyptian city and announced a $764 million development project for the surrounding region.
However, the Sudanese have long claimed sovereignty over Halayeb, with control over the town a sticking point in the Khartoum-Cairo bilateral relationship. Egypt's recent moves, likely meant to formalize Egyptian control over the Halayeb triangle, could have been what prompted Sudan's military deployment. Despite the presence of Egyptian troops in the village of Abu Ramad just 30 kilometers (19 miles) north of Halayeb, where Sudan deployed its forces, there has been no notable Egyptian military response. A spokesman for the Egyptian presidency said May 11 that Egypt would not seek to escalate the situation in the Halayeb triangle, saying the Sudanese platoon's presence does not change the situation there.
Notably, apart from few public statements by Egyptian and Sudanese officials that were never carried beyond local media, neither government has said anything about the move. This silence represents a broader shift within Cairo-Khartoum relations to expand ties and cooperation despite minor points of contention. Leaders in both countries recognize the need to jointly tackle new challenges in northeastern Africa as Cairo faces concerns about internal stability and water supplies and the government in Khartoum wishes to stabilize and consolidate ahead of a potential succession and political reform. The dynamics within Egypt and Sudan are giving the countries an opportunity to mend their formerly strained relations -- a move crucial to Cairo's initiative to expand its influence southward.
Khartoum and Cairo's Security Concerns
One of the most noticeable manifestations of Cairo's new focus is the establishment of security cooperation between Egypt and Sudan. Both countries have committed to increasing border security in an attempt to tackle cross-border weapons smuggling and are trying to set up a joint border force. Egypt's security environment has deteriorated significantly since former President Mohammed Morsi's ouster, and Cairo is concerned about militants from North Africa and the Sahel crossing the country's porous southern and western borders to join forces with growing domestic jihadist organizations. Moreover, the Sudanese border historically has been a key transit point for weapons and ordnance being smuggled north through Egypt and into the Sinai region and the Gaza Strip, and Egyptian authorities are keen to keep these arms from falling into the wrong hands -- especially with the Sinai increasingly destabilized and Hamas' recent designation as a terrorist organization.
This cooperation also makes sense for Khartoum; Sudanese President Omar al Bashir's regime is seeking to increase the country's stability by patching up security risks and re-engaging with political opposition groups in the country. Sudan previously set up a joint border force with Chad on its western border. The security cooperation with Chad has halted Chadian support for rebels in Sudan's Darfur region and has led to a more efficient use of resources in the border area. A similar arrangement with Egypt could ease diplomatic pressure from Cairo over border security.
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Other Diplomatic Initiatives
Another defining dynamic in Egyptian-Sudanese relations has been both countries' interest in the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia. The construction of this dam threatens to lower the amount of Nile water that flows through Egypt, potentially restricting water supply in a country that depends heavily upon agriculture -- and growing amounts of food imports -- to sustain its massive population. Located farther upstream, Sudan is less threatened by this. So far, it has taken a positive stance toward the construction of the dam, hoping to benefit from the dam's power generation by expanding current electricity transmission infrastructure with Ethiopia.
Egypt has actively sought ways to mend ties with the regime in Khartoum over the past year, knowing that Sudanese cooperation (and a change in Khartoum's policy toward Ethiopia) is essential for Egypt's intense lobbying to block the dam's construction. Egypt has a strong incentive to disrupt the growing strategic relations between Sudan and Ethiopia but does not want to create antagonistic relations with both upstream countries.
At the same time, Egypt is approaching a key point in its attempts to overturn its suspension as an African Union member, which occurred in July 2013 following Morsi's ouster. At the next African Union summit, scheduled for June, Egypt's status in the organization will be addressed. Security imperatives and the Ethiopian dam project have drawn Egypt's attention toward its relations with sub-Saharan Africa. The African Union could be an important platform for Egypt to diplomatically manage these concerns.
Sudan's deployment of troops into the Halayeb triangle, however small the force, might seem like a significant challenge to relations between Cairo and Khartoum. However, the territory's immediate significance pales in comparison to the strategic importance of dealing with security threats and Nile River water supplies. Officials on either side could be giving the incident very little attention in an attempt to keep the issue from gaining traction and imperiling more important negotiations. While Egypt could at some point attempt to re-establish its claim over the town of Halayeb, events in the Halayeb triangle are not likely to disrupt the higher-level diplomatic initiatives and ongoing talks between Egypt and Sudan.
Courtesy : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)