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Space isn’t remote at all. It’s only an hour’s drive away if your car could go straight upwards.
- Fred Hoyle, English astronomer
Two crashes, within days of each other, in the last week of October have shaken up the fledgling commercial space industry. The first accident was discussed in the first part of the article.
The second crash was of Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo on 31 October that claimed the life of one of its pilots and seriously injured the other. The spaceship had been carried on a bigger four-engine dual fuselage aircraft known as WhiteKnightTwo and then released for a test of its rocket engine at an altitude of 45,000 feet for a suborbital flight for around three hours. The space plane, designed to carry two pilots and six passengers, crashed soon after. Critics of the initiative were quick to raise doubts regarding the safety standards being followed and also on the new rocket fuel being used. However, initial investigations found the fuel tanks and the engine to be intact, showing there was no explosion and the leading theory now is that the spaceplane disintegrated under aerodynamic stress.
The crash has been a major blow to the commercial space tourism industry as Virgin Galactic has been at the forefront of the programme and was also its most visible face. In 2004, Burt Rutan’s Scaled Composites, through its SpaceShipOne, an air-launched all composite rocket ship, won the $10,000,000 Ansari X prize for private sector innovations in the field of manned space exploration. SpaceShipTwo, successor to the SpaceShipOne is planned to undertake actual commercial human suborbital flights, at $250,000 per seat, where passengers would experience weightlessness for a few minutes and also enjoy the cosmic view. Five such vehicles are planned to be built and made operational.
Rocket technology is complex and space plane design, unlike vertical launches, has very few successful predecessors – only Space Shuttle and X-15 have previously flown in space with humans onboard. The novel challenges of this technology have lead to delays in the target date when the company would finally start ferrying passengers. Earlier in 2007, three engineers had lost their lives in an explosion. Company sources claim that its second SpaceShipTwo is currently about 65 percent complete and that testing will restart within six months. Virgin’s boss Richard Branson has also reiterated his commitment that he along with his son will be on the first flight to prove its safety. However, the proposed 2015 deadline is sure to be missed and this would further impact the company’s future plans of commercial human flight into orbit around the Earth.
Space travel has continued to capture the imagination of millions of enthusiasts who see private ventures like these as the only means to achieve their dream. The commercial prospects have attracted companies to invest in this sector both for suborbital and orbital flights with predictions of space tourism becoming a billion-dollar market within 20 years. Another company that is targeting sub orbital tourism is XCOR Aerospace through a unique concept of a runway take off under rocket power and subsequent landing of its Lynx space craft. Capable of carrying only a pilot and one passenger, this space craft would be able to carry out a quick turnaround, allowing up to four missions a day. Although it has also presold several flights at US$95,000 each, since 2008 when the programme was announced, it has also been facing delays. The proposed test flight of the first prototype in 2014 has been postponed to 2015 and it seems unlikely that the company will be able to ferry passengers by 2015-16 as earlier projected.
Orbital Tourism
Private citizens have been to outer space before either sponsored by their companies, as part of space participant programmes or by paying hefty fees, but these have been very few in number. Russian Space Agency, in order to garner fund for its programmes has taken such travellers to the space stations, Myr in the 1990s and the ISS more recently. The first private fee paying passenger to visit the ISS aboard a Russian Soyuz spacecraft was Dennis Tito, an American businessman in April 2001, who stayed there for seven days. Till 2009, six more private citizens made seven space flights to the International Space Station and back at a cost of US $20–40 million each. In 2009, after the Space Shuttle programme suffered setbacks and the ISS crew size was increased, it became more profitable for the agency to sell the seats for expedition crews at $ 70 million apiece and tourism flights were put on hold. They are planned to be resumed in 2015.
As part of its Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) programme that aims at developing crew rotation services to the ISS, NASA recently awarded a total of $6.8 billion to Boeing ($4.2 billion) and Space X ($2.6 billion) to transport U.S. crews to and from the space station using their CST-100 and Crew Dragon spacecraft. Both companies are looking at using their respective vehicles for providing commercial space experience in the future. Other ventures include plans of circumlunar missions, missions to Mars and setting up of space stations to be used as hotels.
Legality
As per the international space law, countries are responsible for regulating all flights that originate from their soil. Russian commercial ventures are being conducted by a governmental agency. The US, in a bid to commercialise the space launch industry, passed the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 that imposed minimal regulatory framework on the nascent evolving industry, in a bid to minimise the restraint to innovation and technology development. The law makers appreciated that most regulation is generally based on the known whereas the endeavour in such tests and experiments would be to seek and delve into the unknown. Hence, while all such operations are to be licensed by the Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the emphasis is primarily on safety. However, the serious fatal accident may cause regulators to revisit the provisions and may lead to more governmental controls. The global reach of space tourism in the future would require international arbitration and an evolving regime to cater to the constantly progressing sector. An international agency, akin to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) is already being proposed by many experts.
The accident has fanned criticism of the sector being over hyped with some going to the extent of questioning the viability and the very need of commercial space travel. Some proponents of space travel have criticised the venture as joyrides for the super rich. For example, while Virgin Galactic has committed itself to creating ‘accessible and democratised space’, at $250,000 per seat, it is anything but that. Others point to the potential large scale environmental disruption because of the rocket fuel burning. With no governmental support and repeated delays, concerns are being raised about the financial viability of these programmes. The most constructive inputs have been the demand for more attention to safety aspects of the programmes and of transparency so that there are no unrealistic expectations.
Interest in commercial space travel is borne by the fact that almost 700 participants have booked their seats on the Virgin Galactic programme, a number that the company highlights is substantially greater than the total number of humans who have been to space throughout history (546 as of 31 October 2014). The company claims that there have been very few withdrawals, indicating that the delays and the accident have not dampened the passion. Space enthusiasts have formed associations and there is even a magazine covering space tourism and space exploration developments. Industries related to commercial human spaceflight have come together to form the Commercial Spaceflight Federation (CSF) to promote safe space tourism. Committed space enthusiasts even object to the term tourists, preferring to use terms as personal spaceflight or citizen space exploration as alternative terms.
Like the earlier ventures into the oceans or flying, initiatives into commercial space travel are also going to be fraught with risk. Despite good intentions and precautions, some accidents would happen as the pioneers seek solutions to complex problems. There will always be good men who will risk their lives in the interest of human progress and exploration. What might initially set off as a hobby of the rich would eventually evolve into a more democratic industry. Higher participation will lead to enhanced contribution of ideas and innovation to the sector that would potentially benefit humanity. With increase in the number of stake holders, regulation will follow. At this juncture, it would be prudent to carry out an impartial investigation into the accidents and take the necessary steps to avoid recurrence. This would be a true tribute to the brave men who dare to live the dream that millions dream.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)