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The withdrawal of the American Forces from Afghanistan in 2014 poses many challenges to Indian diplomacy, intelligence agencies and the military. One of the members of Hurriyat after their visit to Pakistan in Dec 2012 had disclosed that the LeT cum Jamait–ud–Dawa head Hafiz Syed and the Hizbul Mujahedeen chief Syed Salahuddin had avowed revival of militancy in Kashmir after the US draws down its military presence in Afghanistan. This needs earnest deliberation and planning.
Pakistan’s intentions
Pakistan’s strategy in Afghanistan is India centric. It aims to create a “subversive space” on Afghan soil by ensuring its influence in the area through its proxy, the Taliban. To that end it has been vociferously seeking the participation of Taliban in peace talks. It intends to prop up a pliable weak Government with a significant role for Taliban. Such a regime it believes can be browbeaten into turning a blind eye to the creation of safe havens for militant outfits which it can employ to target India both in Kashmir and in the interior. It thus hopes to camouflage its complicity in the creation and perpetuation of training camps as well as terrorist strikes in India. This will provide it the much needed deniability. The need to prevent Indian influence in Afghanistan and the countries around is seen as a necessity to maintain its own initiative besides denying India the facility to support separatists in Baluchistan. Pakistan would do all that it can to deny any economic dividend that India may gain through trade or access to energy resources in Central Asian Republics (CAR).
As a prerequisite to its designs, it needs to perpetually keep Afghanistan in a fragile state with a weak military. Preventing its economic and political integration within the region and thwarting its efforts from becoming a partner in the appropriate regional structures is yet another design in its game. In Pakistan’s perception, keeping alive the terror option against India is more relevant than economic or other political gains that may help mitigate its own state of bankruptcy.
Likely scenario after the withdrawal of US from Afghanistan
How various influences and pressures will play out in shaping the emergence of Afghanistan as a stable, free and a secular democracy in the region is difficult to predict. Pakistani intervention in the affairs of Afghanistan and its attempt to prop up a Taliban supported weak regime is likely to create a radicalised regime which is a collaborator with various international terrorist organisations. Such an administration will be an ideal setting for the militants to plan and execute terrorist strikes across the world in furtherance of their larger aims. Chaos and infighting within various ethnic groups within Afghanistan is a likely scene. In the bargain, the breakup of the country on ethnic lines affecting the integrity of Pakistan itself is a possibility. Internal turmoil supported by Pakistan from across the border will mean a sure economic disaster to the poverty stricken, corrupt and under-developed country. It is therefore in the interest of the world powers to assert their will to restrict the role of Pakistan and its surrogates in the political and strategic affairs of Afghanistan. Failure to exert at this point in time will cost much despair and sufferings to the entire world in the long run.
A Taliban dominated Afghanistan has larger security implications. Pakistan could escalate insurgency in Kashmir and orchestrate major terror strikes similar to 9/11 in various cities of the country from Afghan soil with its tacit support and backing.
Suggested Indian Strategy
India should aim at preventing Taliban playing a major role in Afghanistan’s future government. The threat of Afghanistan becoming a breeding ground for terrorism abetted and supported by Pakistan is looming large. Should India be confronted with such a possibility impacting peace, tranquility and stability within, it should not hesitate to take the battle across its boundaries to impose costs that are prohibitive. Protecting itself from terrorism especially with Pakistan as the main actor will require well calibrated proactive responses. This could include diplomatic, defensive, covert as well as offensive processes.
In the diplomatic field, India needs to engage with and involve Russia, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in its efforts to prevent Taliban and Pakistan having a major say in the future of Afghanistan. Though a friendly partner with Pakistan, the Chinese concerns of terrorism and Islamic extremism seeping into Xinjiang in the long run needs to be highlighted and their cooperation also sought. Supporting Afghanistan in its assimilation as a part of the region through its integration with various regional, political and economic structures will impose greater accountability to its regime. The importance of strengthening various democratic institutions within and championing the cause of various ethnic communities in the future government should not be lost sight of. The Security apparatus in the country needs to be strengthened to impose the rule of law within its territory. India also needs to engage with the erstwhile Northern Area constituents by providing them moral, economic, political and material support to cater for a contingency where a Taliban supported Afghanistan turns unfriendly and supports Pakistan sponsored terrorism in India from its soil.
Indian attempts to maintain cordial relationship with Pakistan must be based on the principle of reciprocity. If forced, India should not hesitate to retaliate in the most appropriate manner. A clear messages needs to be sent to Pakistan to drive home the perils of engaging in acts of terrorism against India. Diplomatic relations have a meaning only as long as the parties bound by such relationship show some civility and behave in a responsible manner expected of a member country in a civilised world. When Pakistan fails to abide by such a code of conduct, India need have no second thoughts in winding up all diplomatic relationship with the country besides shutting the passport window.
On the economic front, the Indian government should be prepared to suspend all trade and commercial agreements including the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status in the event of Pakistan taking the route of terrorism. The country also needs to work out a strategy to compete in areas of Pakistani exports if need be by providing subsidies and tax concessions to bring home the economic costs of such misadventure. India’s assistance in stimulating economic activity by way of infrastructure development in order to promote private sector investment, regional trade and help Afghanistan realise the economic benefits of the “New Silk Road” would go a long way in providing economic stability to the country. However these need to be timed and await a clear post US withdrawal scenario to emerge.
Militarily, deployment of Indian troops in Afghanistan in the post US scenario is not recommended. Such a move will be viewed with suspicion and as interfering in the internal affairs of Afghanistan. The countries in the region would perceive it as an effort to force our interests at the cost of peace and stability within Afghanistan and in the region. The political, economic and military gains that may accrue by deploying the Indian military may not measure up to the perils of long vulnerable lines of communication and the economic costs. However, should Pakistan use Afghan territory for terrorist activity against India, then India should strike at terrorists hideouts, be it in Afghanistan or in Pakistan. The military and the intelligence agencies need to be tasked for such an eventuality and provided with the requisite capability. Such operations need to be measured, precise and involve short surgical strikes causing irrecoverable damage to terrorist infrastructure. The aspect of avoiding collateral damage to civilian population and property needs to be kept in view. The Government may consider providing training to Afghan Security forces both inside Afghanistan and at Indian Military establishments in India.
Conclusion
India is a vibrant democracy, but it should not be perceived as a soft state. The overall objective of India’s Afghan strategy should devolve on preventing Kashmir being destabilised and Indian cities being targeted with impunity by Pakistan sponsored terrorism. While peace and stability are desirable objectives, India should not hesitate to take offensive options if required.
By Special Arrangement with The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)