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I have therefore chosen to speak on India and ASEAN relationship, particularly how the two are conducting their multifaceted ties even as the geopolitics in the region around the two described as the Indo-Pacific is rapidly evolving. How will India and Southeast Asian nations respond to the dynamic changes that are taking place in the politico-security atmosphere , economic field or socio-cultural area?
Some six-seven years ago I had myself described them in a study as countries moving towards a ‘security convergence’. Where do they stand today?
Both have come a long way since then. Much water has flown across the Bay of Bengal . They held a Summit in New Delhi in Dec.2012. It was a landmark event at which heads of state/government from all ASEAN states specially came to India to participate in that historic occasion and a Vision document was signed. To symbolize the proximity and connectivity between these countries and India a car rally was organized. A key achievement was the Agreement on Free Trade not only in goods( which was entered into a couple of years ago) but also services and investments in which intensive negotiations have been held over a long period. At the Summit the ASEAN leaders were explicit in their expectations from India. Not only in trade and investment, education, capacity building, communications and tourism but also in the area of security. They clearly sought a more active role by India in promoting and maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific( or the Indo-Pacific), in defence cooperation, maritime security , natural disaster management – essentially as a security anchor in the region. The Summit was also a good opportunity to do a frank stock-taking of the status of India-ASEAN relationship. India’s assurance of continued support to ASEAN for its centrality and critical role in the strategically vital region encompassing the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean has been received with appreciation. In the current volatile situation in South China Sea ASEAN’s own position on the issue will be put to a severe test. The relationship has grown steadily, but much more needs to be done to build it further.
An Indian perspective on ASEAN will be in place in the context of the discussion on the situation in the Indo-Pacific. India regards ASEAN as a successful regional grouping composed of 10 diverse countries. ASEAN’s diversity is not often recognised and understood. The ten countries that constitute ASEAN vary widely in geographical size, population, language, religious affiliation, political set up or historical background. What is noteworthy is that they have all committed themselves to create a community-a Security, Economic and Cultural Community by 2015. There is already a good deal of economic integration thanks to ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) entered into as early as 1992 . ASEAN has now several free trade agreements with regional countries such as China, South Korea, India and an arrangement of ASEAN + 3 ( Japan, China and Korea) as a result of which the economies of ASEAN are also integrating. It is important to note that ASEAN economies were able to withstand the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 (and the U.S sub-prime crisis) and have shown sustained economic growth. The economy of Indonesia is growing at more than 6% growth rate. On the strategic level, some of the ASEAN states have stood up against the Chinese assertiveness and aggressiveness. Vietnam and the Philippines have strongly opposed the Chinese claim to the whole of South China Sea and made claim to some of the islands in SCS. India supports the principle of right of free navigation in the seas in accordance with the Law of the Sea. ASEAN is central to any concept of an Asia-Pacific security architecture. It has already created a series of institutions and dialogue partnerships which should enable ASEAN to build the edifice of security and stability in the region. It is to the credit of ASEAN that they were able to craft bodies such as ARF, ADMM++; Full Dialogue Partnerships and Summit Partnerships; and East Asia Summit. The latter is a visionary mechanism to bring about stability and peace as well as economic progress in the Indo-Pacific. India recognises the creation of a security architecture as a delicate and difficult task which it fully subscribes to and supports. On the domestic front the record of some of the ASEAN states is impressive. In the last ten years Indonesia has emerged as a full-fledged and vibrant democracy. Myanmar is already a quasi-democracy and should hopefully be a fully representative government before long. Human rights commissions are being set up in ASEAN states and ASEAN is working towards a Human Rights Convention. Parliamentary and judicial institutions are also being strengthened in ASEAN countries. India regards these developments as positive which can be useful in promoting India’s Look East policy.
ASEAN’s future – an Indian point of view
While ASEAN is building its institutional strength it is still subject to a number of pressures, both internal and external. The case of Cambodia in July 2012 yielding to the Chinese pressure of not agreeing to a joint communique on the issue of South China Sea after an ASEAN and China meeting on the subject points to it. It was for the first time that there was no joint communique after an ASEAN meeting. Militarily most countries (except Myanmar and Vietnam) are weak. That puts a limitation on their handling issues causing violence. Recent situation in Sabah in Malaysia is a case in point. Then there are very different kind of regimes across Southeast Asia and their perspectives vary from each other. India believes that the above and similar challenges can pose a threat to ASEAN’s unity and solidarity which India would not welcome. From India’s viewpoint a closely -knit ASEAN can be a bastion for security in the Indo-Pacific.
China factor in ASEAN
China is a critical and domineering influence over ASEAN. It cuts across all aspects--strategic, political, economic or socio-cultural. Of course, this is historically so and ASEAN and China have been struggling for centuries to work out their relationship which will keep other’s interests on an even keel. It was only after the end of the Cold War that relations between Southeast Asian states and China were fully normalized. Lately in past 5-6 years though China has shown considerable assertiveness and aggressiveness vis-à-vis Southeast Asian countries. On the South China Sea issue China has sharp differences with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. China prefers to deal with Southeast Asian countries bilaterally rather than as a group, namely, ASEAN. Clearly China does not favour integration of these states which is precisely objected to by the latter. On South China Sea issue there is thus a serious deadlock and with Vietnam and the Philippines there is a particularly difficult situation. How will this issue be dealt with by ASEAN which is insisting on a binding Code of Conduct whereas China is in favour of only a non-binding agreement is a major question. Brunei which has assumed chairmanship of ASEAN for this year has indeed a tough challenge to steer the grouping through this crisis.
Where does India figure in ASEAN’s future calculation?
This question becomes particularly relevant even as India and ASEAN start fashioning their equation in the rapidly evolving geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. In the ASEAN perception, India, though less strong than China , militarily or economically, offers a good and credible alternative. India, an established democracy, an open society with its free media, independent election commission and judiciary, a rule-based government remains highly attractive. Southeast Asian countries are also more familiar with its institutions and soft power including Bollywood than perhaps any other state. India offers a huge and growing market and India’s rapidly expanding economy has excellent opportunities for investment both ways. Moreover, there is no historical baggage with India. India’s ties are civilizational yet not domineering . ASEAN is aware of the growing strength of India’s military, especially naval capacity. At the same time, ASEAN also knows the ‘weakness’ of a democratic system especially when it comes to implementation of decisions . Governance in a democratic state like India can raise questions especially in the countries in Southeast Asia which are not democracies or which for most period in their post-independence life have not been democracies. India, on the whole is judged by them as a counter-balance. India is not seen as an alliance partner but a credible and responsible alternative. ASEAN does not envisage or wish any rivalry between China and India on its soil. In any case such conflict will be disastrous for everyone.
India-U.S relations
India’s growing relationship with the U.S can be a relatively new and important factor in the ASEAN –India relations. The U.S has been a preponderant power in the Asia-Pacific since the end of the 2nd World War. It has military alliances with Japan, South Korea, Thailand , the Philippines and Australia. It also has extensive defence cooperation with Singapore and Malaysia and a growing military relationship with Vietnam and Indonesia. It has conducted exercises with the navies of India, Japan, Australia and Singapore in the Indian Ocean.
ASEAN has welcomed Indo-U.S relationship as a positive factor for the stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific. There are possibilities for trilateral cooperation with Southeast Asian countries which need to be explored.
Indo-Pacific – a spatial construct
Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State had stated in Hawaii in 2011 that the U.S strategic interests ranged from Hawaii and Guam in the Pacific to the Persian Gulf and eastern seaboard of Africa. The U.S Pacific Command also covers this broad region. Indian concept of its strategic neighbourhood also encompasses the region from Aden in the west to the Malacca Straits in the east. Historically too India always had a geographical footprint in the Pacific in as much as in the south Indian Ocean. Today that footprint has become only bolder and sharper. As a result of recent statements and studies by world leaders and scholars the Asia-Pacific concept today embraces a wider region which also includes the Indian Ocean. This spatial construct is apt as it denotes the interconnectedness and interdependence between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In the discussion on maritime security or energy security or mutual assistance in natural disasters( e.g. Tsunami in 2004) the commonality of interests is well recognised. India –ASEAN cooperation brings out this need very clearly.
Competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific With its military modernization backed by a buoyant economy China seems poised to become a principal power in the Indo-Pacific. China’s assertive foreign policy posture especially over its boundary disputes with Japan, South Korea, five Southeast Asian countries over South China Sea islands and India has led to sharp exchanges and tension . China’s recent actions in stepping up military or civil cooperation with India’s South Asian neighbours- Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives and Sri Lanka show that China is embarked on a systematic strategic policy in the Indo-Pacific which creates apprehensions for India.
US’s Pivot or Rebalancing Policy
The announcement by the U.S last year of Asia-Pacific as a Pivot signifies to some extent its decision to refocus on the Asia-Pacific ( or the Indo-Pacific as per its own recent terminology) . Pivot is also seen as a ‘rebalancing’ effort by the U.S for the region. This is supposed to make up for the ‘neglect’ of the years of the Bush administration when the U.S attention was centred on Iraq and Afghanistan. Pivot or Rebalancing is construed as an imperceptible policy framework aimed at China.
A U.S-China rivalry is clearly implicit in the U.S announcement. At the same time it does not denote a plan of action for the containment of China . How this will impinge on the U.S allies and friends in the region needs to be seen. On one level, the U.S has planned to match the strategy that China seems embarked on. On the other, the U.S would need to work with China on a number of issues or situations to maintain peace and stability in the region. Curiously the two have similar priorities and interests as was seen in the recent nuclear crisis created by North Korea.
While Southeast Asia in general welcomed the U.S Pivot it has not clearly spelt out how it would like the U.S to lay out policies or programmes of cooperation that would assure them of security or sustained economic growth. With India the debate goes on as to how India and the U.S should rise above the plateau of their bilateral or regional cooperation. A number of areas look promising for trilateral cooperation with Southeast Asia such as a coalition of democracies, maritime cooperation, energy security , food security and so on. The contours of all these need to be clearly delineated.
India and ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific
A question would arise : are India and ASEAN critical factors in the Indo-pacific? If so, how? If not, how can they separately and collectively reverse their marginalisation –both by internal and external actions.
Population-India and ASEAN together represent nearly one third of humanity.
Neutrality -The two are ideologically neutral.( even though some of ASEAN countries are military allies of the U.S. Their heavy dependence on China makes them take a balanced, if not a supportive view of China.)That adds to their strategic strength in a region which is volatile and sees China-U.S tension in one form or the other.
Economic strength- Their reasonably high growth rates of economies puts them in an optimistic position with regard to their market strength. India is expected to be third or second largest economy by 2030. Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore are also highly successful economic players.
Military purchases- Most Southeast Asian nations have not so far gone for major military modernisation and purchases programmes. The military strength of these countries is also far below what their size or population generally warrant. If and when these states go in for large scale military purchases their buying power in the world would substantially go up.
Regionalism- East Asian regionalism has come to stay. It is one of the few regions in the world where several regional institutions or bodies are currently functioning albeit with varying degree of success. In linking with ASEAN over two decades ago India made a useful beginning in building its ties with these regional organizations in Southeast and East Asia the value of which cannot be overemphasized.
East Asia Summit (EAS) of which India is a founding member since its inception in 2005 marks an optimistic phase in the evolutionary process in the Indo-Pacific. That ASEAN’s centrality in the functioning of EAS has been recognised by all members is a positive sign. India fully supports this position.
For India, ‘Look East’ is not just an integral part of its foreign policy but a key instrument to manage our relations in the East, especially with China. The stronger the relationship with ASEAN the greater the leverage that India will have to deal with China in its complex relationship with the latter in the coming months and years.
Mr. Sudhir T. Devare is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs and presently Shri Ram Sathe Chair Professor, Symbiosis International University.