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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ‘s UPA government has made a hash of its second term in office, but Its handling of the current impasse over Chinese incursions in Ladakh has been both mature and pragmatic.
The Cabinet Committee on Security met on Wednesday and army chief Bikram Singh briefed the government on the ground situation and offered certain options to deal with the current impasse. The government will stretch the diplomatic and political option as far as it can and avoid allowing the situation to escalate further. Military adventurism is out for now.
Though television viewers are subjected to alarming rhetoric of land, air and water violations by China since April 15, the situation has not yet gone out of hand. The government has not fallen prey either to the opposition screeching or high decibel television anchor noises calling for a strong reaction from New Delhi.
Thankfully those who deal with these matters know the ground reality. Simply put, India is in no position to take on a rising China militarily, despite the bluster of retired generals and the army who give out selective leaks to reporters. It is important to see the situation in context. Possibly because of the historical baggage of the 1962 defeat in the short border war with China, suspicion and fear of Beijing’s motives dominate the public discourse on the current stand-off.
The government is downplaying this as a localized incident. It is hoping to diffuse the situation through the new working mechanism which was put in place last year. Joint secretary, East Asia, Gautam Bambawale of the Mea and the director border affairs in the Chinese foreign ministry are in touch. The working mechanism is to deal with exactly such incursions on the border. Flag meetings have been held by the local army units in Ladakh so far with little success.
At the same time it is also business as usual with foreign minister Salman Khurshid travelling to Beijing next week to lay the groundwork for Premier Li Keqiang’s first visit to India later in May.
The new Chinese leadership, which formally took over in March this year is also keen to expand its engagement with India. The fact that Premier Li wants to come to India so early in his term is a good sign.
Indians generally give an antagonistic construct to every incident involving China. There is the belief that the central leadership has long term plans to humiliate India and each move on the border is well planned with Beijing giving the green signal to its troops. Local commanders on the ground may also have their own plans, as senior PLA commanders, like military the world over are much more hard line than the political leadership.
China is already under the scanner by smaller countries in the region, thanks largely to its recent aggressive moves in the South China Sea. The new leaders would not want a major confrontation with another large Asian country for now. China’s concern at the moment is the US decision to re locate its forces to the Pacific, a move Beijing regards as an attempt to checkmate it. The fact that the Philippines, Thailand, Japan and other East Asian countries are enthusiastic about US presence indicates that China’s new found assertiveness is irking its neighbours.
The Chinese leaders need time to settle down and deal with their own set of domestic issues, including the slowing down of the Chinese economy. The hardliners in this country, however like to think that China is India - centric and devotes its time and energy to containing India.
The fact is China is in the big league, the second largest economy in the world and on its way to becoming a major military power, puling its size in the international arena. The opposition BJP knows the ground situation but cannot resist scoring brownie points against the government. Samajwadi party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has also criticized the government’s weak-kneed response to China. Yadav claimed that China and not Pakistan is India’s number one enemy.
It is a fact that the latest incursions are far more serious than previous ones in this sector. Earlier, PLA soldiers would come, mark their presence and leave. This time around it is different because they have intruded over 19 kilometers of what India perceives as its territory in Ladakh. The fact remains that the border is not demarcated and there are pockets, including this one in Ladakh which are keenly contested. This is the furthest a Chinese patrol has come, and not just that, pitched tents there. Three rounds of flag meetings by the local commanders on the ground have so far not resolved the issue.
China is insisting that the fortifications made by India in the area should be removed. New Delhi is not ready to do this as it believes the PLA has no right to say what is to be done in territory India regards as its own. Yet despite the current stand-off, and other such incidents, it is a fact that the border with China has not seen any exchange of gunfire since the short border war of 1962. That is a major plus point. Unlike in the Loc with Pakistan, where despite a ceasefire the two sides keep firing at each other, the China-India Line of Actual Control (LAC) has fortunetly not seen such incidents.
As the government constantly reminds the public, the over 4000 kilometers long border with China has not been officially marked. Border talks have continued for years and the issue is unlikely to be resolved soon. So while the process is in place, both sides, especially the Chinese want to assert their positions to establish their claim of certain areas. It may take time to resolve the current stand-off but this is unlikely to lead to a major overall mobilization.
China’s two pronged approach to India is well know. On the one hand there is an attempt to expand co-operation not just in trade and business but also in dealing with international affairs on the other it takes a tough position on the boundary question, claiming the whole of Arunachal Pradesh and huge tracts in the Western sector bordering Pakistan as its own.
Yet, there are many areas where India and China see eye to eye on international issues, whether it is Syria, the reform of world financial institutions or the environment. India-China engagements are also growing. Officials on both sides met in Beijing last week to discuss Afghanistan. Also there is BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) grouping, the trilateral India, China, Russia meets. But despite all this, India has to remain ever vigilant. One way to do this is to engage with both the US, Japan and China’s neighbours.
China is skirting India’s neighbourhood, apart from its old ally Pakistan where it is now taking over the control of Gwadar port, it also has toeholds in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and the Maldives. India likewise is in Vietnam, is extending ties with Laos and Cambodia.
More important, India and Japan’s ties are improving by the day. Shinzo Abe, the new Japanese prime minister is a friend of India and has worked hard for closer military and defence co operation with this country. He believes that Indian defence presence in the Asia-Pacific region must be more visible to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
In a talk in Delhi in September 2011, he revived the idea of the arc of freedom which he had promoted single-mindedly during his brief first term as PM. Abe said that India-Japan and the America must get together for the defence of the sea lanes of the Asia-Pacific region where trade is increasing each year as the region grows at a rate much higher than the rest of the world. By emphasising on democracy, Abe deliberately left out China from his arc of freedom – consisting of Japan, Australia, India and US which he made famous during his short stint as prime minister. However the idea never took off as China protested vehemently.
``China will remain both an opportunity and a risk for a long time to come. In America we see the oldest democracy, in China we see an autocracy both the oldest and the newest as it is still in the making. There is no question which side Japan and India should take,'' Abe said during his speech, pleading for siding with the US rather than China in a changing world.
New Delhi needs to have close strategic and defence ties with Japan. Moreover it also needs to pull its weight in the Pacific. India cannot shy away from its responsibilities in Asia. The US is has been looking for more commitment from India in the region. Former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton spoke on this in a public speech in Chennai.
Former US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, during his visit to New Delhi, was more forceful. “Defence cooperation with India is a linchpin in this strategy,’’ (of rebalancing US forces in Asia) where he explained President Obama’s pivot to Asia.
But so far, India which also upholds the principle of open and safe sea lanes has been reluctant to get into a position where it will be seen as working against China. Though Delhi has gone in for oil exploration in Vietnam, Manmohan Singh had reassured former premier Wen Jiabao that India’s interests were purely commercial. It had no wish to take sides in the regional rivalries over the South China Sea.
Many Indian strategic analysts are unhappy about New Delhi refusing to take up the gauntlet. They regard this as India’s weakness. India needs to be more proactive, its warming ties with the US after the civil nuclear deal had Beijing rather concerned. China feared that the US would use India to balance out China’s growing clout in Asia. A wary Beijing raised its engagements with India since then.
The best way to deal with a rising China is to increase cooperation with both US and Japan, while keeping up its engagement with China. India needs to keep China guessing about its motives.
Seema Guha is a senior journalist.