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Pakistan is changing and it is important for India to recognize this. The vast majority of people have reposed their faith in democracy, considering that the voter turn-out was over 60 per cent, despite dire threats by the Pakistani Taliban and the violence which persisted right up to election day.
The people are no longer in the mood to turn to the military, as in the past. The Pakistan army too is in no mood to take over the government, considering the enormous problems facing the country. Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani would rather have the civilian government in charge to take the blame.
Considering that when General Pervez Musharraf ousted Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless coup in 1999, people in the country welcomed it, disgusted as they were with successive corrupt and inefficient civilian governments. But this time around, despite the unpopularity of PPP president Asif Zardari and the inefficient government he ran, the party was allowed to complete its term. Change would be brought about by elections and not by generals sitting in Rawalpindi.
Pakistan’s civil society has also matured. The judiciary under chief justice Iftikar Chaudhury has shown remarkable resilience. The media is flourishing, thanks ironically to Pervez Musharraf, who allowed private television channels to operate during his tenure. The media is not just taking on the government but the army as well.
As expected, Mian Nawaz Sharif made the final cut and is ready now to assume office as the new prime minister of the country. It is good for Pakistan that a seasoned hand is taking over the reins at this crucial stage when the nation is beset with major problems.
Imran Khan, the face of change, did not, thankfully, get elected to the hot seat. Pakistan at this stage desperately needs a man who understands the workings of the government. Whether he will be up to the task remains a conjecture. But between Nawaz Sharil and the inexperienced Imran Khan, the former looks much better equipped, at least on paper, to deal with the complexities on the ground..
For India, closely following the Pakistan elections, Nawaz Sharif is a known figure. His desire to be friends with India resulted in the Lahore declaration of February 1999, when former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee took the bus ride to Pakistan. But the peace bubble burst soon enough. Kargil happened, followed by the military coup and Sharif was out of the picture. But he has come back a changed man.
However, despite the pleasing words he has said about India, at the moment his priorities are elsewhere. Sharif a businessman at heart, has always been keen to have robust trade ties with India. This time around he is talking about allowing India access through Pakistan territory to trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.
How much of all this he can implement considering he has already been warned by the jihadis is open to question. His ties with India will ultimately be dictated by his domestic circumstances.
Sharif’s relations with the Pakistan army have been bad ever since Musharraf overthrew him in a bloodless coup but the Prime Minister will have to repair his ties with the army.
His primary objective, as far as the military is concerned, will be to change the army chief when Kayani completes his extended tenure later this year. This will help to initially keep the military's attention divided.
“Afghanistan and all these issues will take him on a road where he will either gently negotiate with the generals or get into confrontation. Both sides can't afford to play a zero-sum game. But how he eventually fares will become more clear in the next month or so. If he doesn't build an institutional mechanism to deal with the military he loses out,” says Pakistan’s top security analyst Ayesha Siddiqa.
Though Sharif has said after winning the elections that the civilian government will call the shots, as in every other democracy,that may not happen, especially in relation to Afghanistan, India and the US. The fact that US secretary of state John Kerry invited Pak army chief Kayani to Washington for talks, bang in the middle of the election campaign indicates that the military calls the shots in all security and foreign policy matters.
“Nawaz Sharif is not the first Pakistani leader to talk of keeping the army in its place, nor will he be the last. But these are early days, let’s see what happens,” an Indian diplomat said, showing a healthy cynicism about what to expect from the new government. Like the US, India firmly believes that the army takes the final call on important matters of security and has from the beginning dictated the governments India policy. That is not likely to change in a hurry.
Added to this is the worrying fact that Sharif has to deal with the non state actors, the Pakistani Taliban and the virulently anti-India groups like the Lashkar E Toiba, which operate from Punjab. It was under chief minister Shahbaz Sharif’s watch that the Punjabi Jihadi groups were allowed to grow and operate. Ajmal Kasab and his deadly band of terrorists were indoctrinated by these groups. Pakistani commentators have talked of these “very grey areas” and the Sharif brothers’ links to religious and Jihadi groups.
Shahbaz Sharif had publicly pleaded with the Taliban to spare Punjab as his government was against US policies, and even stopped many US - aided projects. Having played footsie with the Taliban as well as religious groups with military wings, can Sharif take them on now?
Sharif has already said he would like to talk to the Taliban. But even if the talks succeed he will have to make major compromises. He has already been warned against going soft on India. Any move to grant MNF status to India will be met with disapproval by the jihadists.
President Zardari while assuming power was also keen to expand trade ties and even push Kashmir to the backburner for future generations to take up. Unfortunately the PPP government with the best of of intentions could do little. Can Sharif succeed where Zardari failed?
The PPP failed to carry the army with it, Shairf has to override the army as well as religious and jihadi groups to take forward relations with India.
“Improving relations with India is top if his agenda but it is a slippery slope since Indians weariness may make them slow in responding to his good will that will be or could be used against him,” said Siddiqa.
In these circumstances, India’s skepticism is natural. However India should invigorate its engagement with the people of Pakistan : civil society, the judiciary, cultural forums. Across the board in Pakistan, except for the Jihadi elements there is genuine desire for friendship with India. South Block must keep all this in mind when and avoid linking people to people ties with the state of relations between the two government.
Pakistani friends keep complaining of tedious process of getting a visa to India, after 26/11. Delhi should know it is churlish refusing visas to genuine travelers whenever New Delhi has a problem with Islamabad. People to people relations cannot forever be held hostage to relations between the two governments. Sports, culture and tourism should be kept out of the normal ups and downs of India-Pakistan ties.
Seema Guha is a senior journalist and a Pakistan analyst.